156 - Trigger Boundaries with Harry Mitchell and Nick Kalogeropoulos

Fire Science Show

What if you could predict the last possible time to evacuate your community before a wildfire wreaks havoc? What if you had that knowledge years before the wildfires happened and built up your preparedness based on this knowledge? What if you knew how this boundary changes with wind, dry weather and direction? I think you get a knowledge-based decision model, and that is exactly what my guests today have been looking for.
Join us as we explore this cutting-edge approach with Imperial Hazelab Dr. Harry Mitchell and Nick Kalogeropoulos, who reveal the trigger boundary methodology developed within the WUI-NITY project. Their innovative work determines optimal evacuation timings by calculating an imaginary line where the time needed to evacuate aligns perfectly with the available time, thus ensuring safer exits. This episode promises to equip you with new insights into fire safety engineering that go beyond wildfires.
We take a sobering look at the dire consequences of delayed evacuations, spotlighting real-life tragedies like the 2018 Mati fire in Greece. Our discussion underscores the crucial importance of recognising imminent danger, addressing architectural hindrances, and improving inadequate road networks.
In the episode, we discuss the first iteration - the Population Evacuation Trigger Algorithm (PERIL), a tool designed to establish robust trigger boundaries for more effective and timely evacuations. This was later developed into a probabilistic tool, with a significantly higher capabilities.
In the episode, we discuss the complexities of wildfire evacuation modelling, discussing how transitioning from single scenario studies to probabilistic models offers a more nuanced understanding of various parameters such as wind and fuel moisture. Operational fire models like Farsight are pivotal in predicting fire spread and smoke, balancing detailed physical models with actionable results. We wrap up by emphasising the necessity of integrating community resilience, fuel conditioning, and improved planning to mitigate wildfire tragedies, highlighting the collaborative efforts that make these advancements possible.
Further reading for this episode includes:

• Integrating wildfire spread and evacuation times to design safe triggers: Application to two rural communities using PERIL model
• Design of stochastic trigger boundaries for rural communities evacuating from a wildfire
• The simulation of wildland-urban interface fire evacuation: The WUI-NITY platform
• WUI-NITY Reports

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The Fire Science Show is produced by the Fire Science Media in collaboration with OFR Consultants. Thank you to the podcast sponsor for their continuous support towards our mission.

Chapters

1. Wildfire Preparedness and Trigger Boundaries (00:00:00)

2. Dire Consequences of Delayed Evacuation (00:12:26)

3. Coupled Approach to Wildfire Evacuation (00:20:47)

4. Predicting Wildfire Spread With Farsight (00:31:04)

5. Enhancing Wildfire Preparedness With Trigger Boundaries (00:42:15)

6. Advancing Fire Safety Engineering Framework (00:50:07)