Weather Sunday June 23 2024 T-storms Northeast Dry West coast some dry weather over the northern Plains

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Heat wave focus shifts from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic states this weekend...
...Excessive Rainfall and Severe Weather concerns across the Upper Great
Lakes/Mississippi Valley tonight followed by New England Sunday...
...Heat expands from West into Plains early next week, monsoon-like
conditions for the Desert Southwest...
A heat wave will continue over much of the eastern U.S. south of a
quasi-stationary boundary and under the influence of longwave ridging
aloft this weekend. Forecast low temperatures Saturday will generally be
in the mid- to upper 70s from the central/southern Plains to the East
Coast. These temperatures remain the most anomalous and dangerous for
early Summer over portions of the Midwest/Ohio Valley east to the
Mid-Atlantic. A potent upper-level shortwave will help to finally push the
boundary southward Sunday, bringing welcome relief to much of the
Midwest/Ohio Valley, while the Mid-Atlantic continues to simmer. Numerous
record-tying/breaking highs are possible. In addition, overnight low
temperatures will remain to the mid- and even upper 70s, providing little
relief from the heat overnight. The combination of this heat coming early
in the Summer season and persisting over several days increases the level
of heat stress for those without reliable air conditioning.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to the north along the
quasi-stationary boundary draped from New England west through the Great
Lakes and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Plentiful moisture will
increase the chance for locally heavy downpours. The highest chance for
potentially significant heavy rainfall will be along the boundary ahead of
an upper-level wave over portions of the Upper Great Lakes/Upper
Mississippi Valley tonight. Ongoing organized storms from overnight Friday
as well as the risk for more widespread, organized storms into the day
Saturday has prompted a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4)
over southern Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa for the threat of scattered
to numerous instances of flash flooding. A broader Slight Risk (level 2/4)
covers the region. In addition, a few storms may be severe, with a Slight
Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) issued by the Storm Prediction Center
for the threat of some damaging winds and a few tornadoes. A locally
higher threat for heavier downpours will also exist over southern New
England, with a Slight Risk in place. The noted more potent upper-level
shortwave arriving Sunday will help to push the boundary south and
eastward, bringing higher storm chances more broadly across New England
and southwestward though the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley/Tennessee Valley.
Stronger, very moist low-level flow interacting with the boundary over
northern New England will bring the greatest chance for heavy downpours
and scattered flash flooding, with another Slight Risk in place. SPC
upgraded their Slight Risk to an Enhanced Risk over parts of central New
England/much of New Hampshire and Vermont, where damaging winds and a few
tornadoes will once again be the main threats.
Upper-level ridging will begin to build over the western and then central
U.S. following the shortwave passage, bringing rising temperatures across
this region as well. The focus over the northern tier will begin to shift
eastward with the ridge on Sunday, with cooler highs in the Pacific
Northwest but temperatures soaring into the mid- and upper 90s over much
of the central/northern High Plains. Conditions will remain hot from
central to southern California. Temperatures will still be hot but closer
to average for the Desert Southwest as Monsoon-like conditions remain over
the region. Highs on Sunday and Monday will range in the mid- to upper
100s, wi