The Wire - June 25, 2024

S2 Underground

//The Wire//2100Z June 25, 2024//

//ROUTINE//

//BLUF: RIOTS ERUPT IN NAIROBI. JULIAN ASSANGE FREE IN PLEA DEAL.//

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-International Events-

Europe: Julian Assange has agreed to a plea deal with the United States which will allow him to go free, with his previous years of detention in the U.K. reportedly counting as time-served towards his sentencing. He is currently traveling back to Australia.

Kenya: Riots have broken out throughout the capital of Nairobi following the proposal of a new finance bill that would raise taxes throughout the nation. So far, 5x people have been killed after police fired into a crowd of protesters earlier today.

-HomeFront-

Midwest: Severe flooding continues to plague the region. In Minnesota, the Rapidan Dam in Blue Earth County has reached the conditions indicative of an imminent failure due to severe flooding throughout the region. The dam has so far suffered a partial breach on the western abutment, partially relieving the growing pressure on the dam structure. In Iowa, flooding caused a levee failure on the Little Sioux River in Monona County.

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Analyst Comments: The situation in Kenya (and throughout Africa at large) remains complex and potentially more significant due to outside influence. Yesterday, the White House designated Kenya as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA), which serves as a mostly diplomatic milestone to symbolize tightening relations. However, both China and Russia have invested significant efforts over the past few years to expand their influence throughout Africa. Of note, during these latest riots in Nairobi, various photos and videos circulating social media indicate the presence of Russian flags at demonstrations. It is not clear as to if this is an isolated incident or more indicative of foreign influence, however similar actions were observed during the riots in Niger, which has seen the withdrawal of US forces in the region (which is still underway), alongside the simultaneous welcoming of Russian advisors. It’s too soon to tell if Kenya will be a more substantial (and powerful) nation by which the various proxy conflicts in Africa can continue, but considering the worsening relations between the U.S. and Russia, the latter would be highly incentivized to cause trouble for the U.S. in Kenya, or at least undermine the efforts undertaken by the State Department in the region.

Analyst: S2A1

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