Uranium Price & Equities Ready to Breakout in April?

The Energy Show

Recording date: 28th March 2024
Interview with Brandon Munro, CEO of Bannerman Energy

The Compelling Investment Case for Uranium

Uranium is at an intriguing inflection point for investors. Despite recent quietness in uranium equities, the nuclear fuel's underlying fundamentals are strengthening and pointing towards a potentially sustained bull market on the horizon.

On the demand side, uranium benefits from relatively inelastic demand due to its role as an essential, unsubstitutable input for nuclear energy. The world's existing fleet of reactors requires a steady supply of uranium to operate economically, providing a dependable baseline of demand. On top of this, 62 new reactors are currently under construction globally, with many expected to come online in the next five years, driving incremental demand growth.

Longer-term, uranium demand could experience a "huge uptick" in the 5+ year timeframe according to Brandon Munro, CEO of uranium company Bannerman Energy. He cites factors such as China's plans to approve around 10 new reactors per year and the potential for small modular reactors (SMRs) to gain commercial traction. While still speculative, these demand drivers provide additional upside exposure for uranium investors.

In the face of this robust demand profile, uranium supply has become increasingly precarious. The world's largest producer, Kazakhstan, recently signalled that widely anticipated production increases in 2024-2025 are unlikely to materialise as expected. More broadly, Munro emphasizes that current global uranium production "isn't enough…to even meet existing demand," let alone future growth.

The muted supply response is compounded by long lead times for new mines. Major greenfield uranium projects have not been approved, while even promising discoveries today in productive regions like Canada's Athabasca Basin would take at least a decade to enter production. This leaves a fairly long runway for the supply deficit to potentially worsen before eventually rebalancing.

As the supply gap becomes more pressing, uranium prices could experience a significant upside. While spot prices briefly spiked last year demonstrating the market's upward potential, Munro argues this didn't truly reflect utilities being forced to compete for scarce pounds to keep reactors running. He sees scope for "sustained pricing pressure" as the shortfall comes into fuller focus, supporting "a bull market cycle that at least reflects the longevity of the very desperate bear market cycle…from 2011 until only a year or two ago."

The constructive fundamental backdrop is drawing increased investor attention. Munro reports "tens of hours" of recent conversations with institutional investors expressing "very strong views" on the uranium sector. As generalist interest returns to commodities, uranium equities are benefitting from expanded investment vehicles like ETFs and physical trusts that are acting as "a funnel" for new capital entering the space.

For investors looking to capitalize on uranium's attractive supply/demand dynamics, multiple options are available. These include investing in uranium miners, either directly or through sector ETFs, as well as gaining exposure to physical uranium through listed trusts. While the bull market is still in its early innings, establishing positions sooner rather than later may be rewarded as the full extent of the market tightness becomes clearer.

In conclusion, uranium's compelling fundamentals characterized by steady baseload demand, structural supply constraints, and rising investor awareness make a convincing case that the nuclear fuel is poised for a powerful bull cycle. As the market continues to shift from surplus to shortage, uranium prices and equities could have substantial upside in the years ahead. Investors still on the sidelines may be well-served by taking a closer look at this overlooked opportunity before it moves into the mainstream.

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