))
“How I Learned To Stop Trusting Prediction Markets and Love the Arbitrage” by orthonormal
Manage episode 433168839 series 3364758
Content provided by LessWrong. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by LessWrong or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.
This is a story about a flawed Manifold market, about how easy it is to buy significant objective-sounding publicity for your preferred politics, and about why I've downgraded my respect for all but the largest prediction markets.
I've had a Manifold account for a while, but I didn't use it much until I saw and became irked by this market on the conditional probabilities of a Harris victory, split by VP pick.
Jeb Bush? Really? That's not even a fun kind of wishful thinking for anyone. Please clap.The market quickly got cited by rat-adjacent folks on Twitter like Matt Yglesias, because the question it purports to answer is enormously important. But as you can infer from the above, it has a major issue that makes it nigh-useless: for a candidate whom you know won't be chosen, there is literally no way to come out ahead on mana (Manifold keeps [...]
The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI.
---
First published:
August 6th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/awKbxtfFAfu7xDXdQ/how-i-learned-to-stop-trusting-prediction-markets-and-love
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
…
continue reading
I've had a Manifold account for a while, but I didn't use it much until I saw and became irked by this market on the conditional probabilities of a Harris victory, split by VP pick.
Jeb Bush? Really? That's not even a fun kind of wishful thinking for anyone. Please clap.The market quickly got cited by rat-adjacent folks on Twitter like Matt Yglesias, because the question it purports to answer is enormously important. But as you can infer from the above, it has a major issue that makes it nigh-useless: for a candidate whom you know won't be chosen, there is literally no way to come out ahead on mana (Manifold keeps [...]
The original text contained 1 image which was described by AI.
---
First published:
August 6th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/awKbxtfFAfu7xDXdQ/how-i-learned-to-stop-trusting-prediction-markets-and-love
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
---
Images from the article:
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.
Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.366 episodes
Share
