MONSTER Soybean Crop + Impossible Old Crop Situation

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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🌽 Crop Estimates Update:
Corn Yield: Pro Farmer estimates a US national average corn yield of 181.1bpa, slightly lower than the USDA's recent estimate of 183.1bpa. If confirmed, this yield would set a new national record.
Soybean Yield: Pro Farmer estimates a national average soybean yield of 54.9bpa, which is higher than the USDA's estimate of 53.2bpa and could also set a new national record.
Note: Pro Farmer's yield estimates are not purely based on state-by-state findings; they incorporate other factors for a more comprehensive analysis.
⚖️ Legal Victory in South Dakota:
Summit Carbon Solutions: The South Dakota Supreme Court ruled against Summit Carbon Solutions, stating that the company does not qualify as a common carrier. This decision prevents the use of eminent domain to construct their CO2 pipeline across the state.
Implications: The ruling stems from Summit's refusal to disclose agreements with regional ethanol companies, which hindered the court's ability to confirm whether Summit would be transporting a commodity, a requirement for common carrier status.
📉 Fund Traders' Position:
Corn: Funds have a historically large net short position of 257k contracts after selling 4k contracts.
Soybeans: Funds also hold a significant net short position of 168k contracts, having sold 13k contracts.
Wheat: Contrary to corn and soybeans, funds were net buyers of 21k contracts of SRW wheat.
📦 USDA Flash Sale:
Soybeans: A flash sale of 120,000mt (4 million bushels) of soybeans to unknown destinations was reported for the 2024/2025 marketing year. Last week, total flash sales reached 1.4mmt (51 million bushels).
🐄 Cattle on Feed Report:
Market Impact: The report for August was seen as neutral to slightly bearish for the cattle market.
Key Numbers:
Cattle on feed: 100.2% of last year's levels.
Placements in July: 106% of last year, higher than expected.
Marketings: 108% of last year's levels, consistent with expectations.
Implication: The higher-than-expected placements might apply downward pressure on the cattle market.
🏛️ Federal Reserve Update:
Jerome Powell's Speech: Powell indicated that a rate cut is on the horizon, with future decisions more reliant on labor market data than inflation.
Labor Market: The US unemployment rate has risen to 4.3%, the highest in three years.
Next Meeting: The Federal Reserve will convene again on September 17 and 18, where more concrete actions may be outlined.