Ukraine and Russia trade blows: Who is on the back foot?

The Debate

What happens when summer turns to fall? After the slow and steady Russian gains in the Donbas comes the surprise Ukrainian counter-invasion in Kursk. Now come harrowing nights of bombings across Ukraine. What to expect when fall turns to winter?

This week has seen consecutive nights of bombings across Ukraine, most recently hitting Volodymyr Zelensky's hometown of Kryvyi Rih in the centre of the country.

Meanwhile, Ukraine is sending thousands of troops into the Kursk region, in what has quickly become the biggest invasion of Russian territory since World War II. It started as what seemed like an incursion on August 6.

After the Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in the opening days of the full-scale invasion back in 2022, another atomic facility is now in the news. The head of the UN nuclear watchdog is visiting Kurchatov, home to the Kursk nuclear power plant. The frontline is now 40 kilometres away.

Who has the upper hand now? Everything can seem frozen until it is not. What will tip the balance in the days, weeks and months ahead?

Produced by François Picard, Andrew Hilliar, Juilette Brown, Meiqi An