How Do You Rate Public Opinion Polls?

Civics on the Rocks

Mack and Steve discuss if they find election poll results highly favorable, favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, unfavorable, or highly unfavorable.

References

A straw poll, or vote, according to Merriam-Webster:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/straw%20vote

Fox News may not have handled coverage of the 2012 election as well as they could have:

Folkenflik, David. “Media Circus: Fox Struggles With Obama’s Win?” November 7, 2012. NPR. https://www.npr.org/2012/11/07/164576251/media-circus-fox-struggles-with-obamas-win

How much did Obama win by?

National Archives. “2021 Electoral College Results.” Last reviewed: June 26, 2024. https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2012

Iowa likes its straw poll, even if Mack does not:

Pate, Paul D. “Iowa Secretary of State Shares Final Results of Iowa State Fair Presidential Straw Poll.” August 21, 2023. Iowa.gov. https://sos.iowa.gov/news/2023_08_21.html

How can you tell if a poll is scientific?

Bloustein Center for Survey Research. “Assessing Poll Validity.” Rutgers.edu. https://bcsr.rutgers.edu/assessing-poll-validity/

Learn about a random sample:

Hayes, Adam. “Simple Random Sampling: 6 Basic Steps With Examples.” Updated: August 14, 2024. Investopedia. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/simple-random-sample.asp

The popular vote doesn’t decide the president because we have the electoral college:

USA.gov. “Electoral College.” Updated: August 22, 2024. https://www.usa.gov/electoral-college

Here are the polling groups Mack listed:

Pew Research Center https://www.pewresearch.org/

Gallop https://news.gallup.com/home.aspx

The Harris Poll https://theharrispoll.com/

Quinnipiac University https://poll.qu.edu/

Some context for the Defense Department paying $400 for a hammer in the 80s:

Freedberg, Jr., Sydney J. “The myth of the $600 hammer.” December 7, 1998. Government Executive. https://www.govexec.com/federal-news/1998/12/the-myth-of-the-600-hammer/5271/

Learn about margin of error:

Mercer, Andrew. “5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls.” September 8, 2016. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/

Read about how polls incorrectly predicted that Hillary Clinton would win the 2016 election:

Mercer, Andrew; Deane, Claudia; and McGeeney, Kyley. “Why 2016 election polls missed their mark.” November 9, 2016. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2016/11/09/why-2016-election-polls-missed-their-mark/

Why it’s not going to be Biden:

Miller, Zeke; Long, Colleen; and Superville, Darlene. “Biden drops out of 2024 race after disastrous debate inflamed age concerns. VP Harris gets his nod.” July 21, 2024. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/biden-drops-out-2024-election-ddffde72838370032bdcff946cfc2ce6#

The Bradley, or Wilder, effect describes a phenomenon where people voted differently than they said they were going to in a poll due to the race of the candidate:

Ballotpedia. “Bradley Effect.” https://ballotpedia.org/Bradley_effect

The Whitman effect describes a similar phenomenon with women candidates. There was a study that found that the Bradley/Wilder effect appears to no longer occur and there is no evidence the Whitman effect ever did. Here is the reference, but please note that the journal article is behind a paywall.

Hopkins, D. J. (2009). No more Wilder effect, never a Whitman effect: When and why polls mislead about Black and female candidates. The Journal of Politics, 71(3), 769–781. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022381609090707

About internal polling:

Askarinam, Leah. “In defense of internal polling.” February 7, 2024. ABC News. https://abcnews.go.com/538/defense-internal-polling/story?id=107003824

Some problems with polling, including the potential to suppress the vote:

Ordway, Denise-Marie. “‘Horse race’ reporting of elections can harm voters, candidates, news outlets: What the research says.” October 23, 2023. The Journalist’s Resource. https://journalistsresource.org/politics-and-government/horse-race-reporting-election/

How third-party candidates affected the 2016 election:

Jaffe, Alexandra. “By the Numbers: Third-Party Candidates Had an Outsize Impact on the Election.” November 8, 2016. NBC News. https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/third-party-candidates-having-outsize-impact-election-n680921

If Ohio is out, what are the current swing states?

Davis, Jr., Elliot. “7 States That Could Sway the 2024 Presidential Election.” August 27, 2024. U.S. News & World Report. https://www.usnews.com/news/elections/articles/7-swing-states-that-could-decide-the-2024-presidential-election

What’s a protest vote?

Ballotpedia. “Protest vote.” https://ballotpedia.org/Protest_vote

Learn whether it’s misinformation or disinformation:

Bitesize. “Misinformation v disinformation: What’s the difference?” BBC. https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/z3hhvj6

What’s a push poll?

Ballotpedia. “Push polling.” https://ballotpedia.org/Push_polling

So, why did President Biden drop out? One opinion:

Bennet, Brian, and Elliott, Philip. “Why Joe Biden Dropped Out.” July 21, 2024. Time. https://time.com/7001028/why-joe-biden-stepped-down/

In case you somehow missed out on the media’s reporting of President Biden’s debate performance:

Klein, Betsy; Hunt, Kasie; Lee, MJ; Fox, Lauren; and Tausche, Kayla. “Biden’s debate performance sets off alarm bells for Democrats.” June 28, 2024. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/28/politics/joe-biden-debate-performance-panic/index.html

Two guys comparing betting markets against what the polls say:

CNN. “Expert: 2024 betting odds more accurate than polling data.” Video. https://www.cnn.com/videos/politics/2024/07/13/smr-latest-betting-odds-on-2024.cnn

Who do you think will win MVP in the WNBA this season?

ESPN. “WNBA 2024 awards tracker: MVP, Rookie of Year favorites, more.” August 27, 2024. https://www.espn.com/wnba/story/_/id/40484035/wnba-2024-awards-tracker-mvp-rookie-year-coach-all-league-first-team

Don’t take Mack’s word for it, this is what polling says about how voters feel about education in this election:

Hatfield, Jenn. “Partisan divides over K–12 education in 8 charts.” June 5, 2023. Pew Research Center. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/06/05/partisan-divides-over-k-12-education-in-8-charts/

Learn about consumer confidence:

The Conference Board. “U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises Slightly in August.” August 27, 2024. https://www.conference-board.org/topics/consumer-confidence

Protestors at a Republican event:

Tareen, Sophia; Offenhartz, Jake; Williams, Corey; and Yamat, Rio. “Protestors rally peacefully at GOP convention for abortion and immigrant rights, end to war in Gaza.” July 15, 2024. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/activists-rnc-milwaukee-police-protest-march-4a315dc5f36fc9390898301d508aee20

Protestors at a Democratic event:

Tareen, Sophia; Offenhartz, Jake; Cappelletti, Joey; and Skene, Lea. “Crowds of pro-Palestinian protestors rally and march outside Democratic convention’s 3rd night.” August 21, 2024. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/democratic-convention-chicago-protests-israel-hamas-war-ea3bc9193cc99a5c95ebfd1a42db924f

Some reasons why American media might be cautious, even skittish, on reporting the conflict in the Middle East:

Kekauoha, Alex. “Navigating the fog of war: Stanford’s discussion on media coverage of the Israel-Hamas war.” December 6, 2023. Stanford Report. https://news.stanford.edu/stories/2023/12/navigating-fog-war-stanfords-discussion-media-coverage-israel-hamas-war

A look at how one poll approached the Israel-Palestine conflict:

Telhami, Shibley. “Americans feel the need to be extra careful when discussing Israel-Palestine.” March 8, 2024. Brookings. https://www.brookings.edu/articles/americans-feel-the-need-to-be-extra-careful-when-discussing-israel-palestine/

Immigration and the asylum system:

American Immigration Council. “Asylum in the United States.” January 15, 2024. https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/asylum-united-states

Immigration and the border wall:

U.S. Customs and Border Protection. “Border Wall System – Frequently Asked Questions.” Updated: February 12, 2024. https://www.cbp.gov/border-security/border-wall/border-wall-system-frequently-asked-questions

What makes a good poll question?

Pew Research Center. “Writing Survey Questions.” https://www.pewresearch.org/writing-survey-questions/

How data metrics/mining techniques are used by politicians:

Klosowski, Thorin. “How Political Campaigns Use Your Data to Target You.” April 16, 2024. Electronic Frontier Foundation. https://www.eff.org/deeplinks/2024/04/how-political-campaigns-use-your-data-target-you

AI does not have to be accurate in any of its results:

Caltech Faculty. “Can We Trust Artificial Intelligence?” Science Exchange. https://scienceexchange.caltech.edu/topics/artificial-intelligence-research/trustworthy-ai

Is Texas becoming more purple? One opinion:

Barabak, Mark Z. “Column: In two decades, much of the West has turned blue. Why hasn’t Texas?” December 7, 2023. Los Angeles Times. https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2023-12-07/much-of-the-west-has-turned-blue-heres-why-texas-is-an-exception

Learn a little (opinionated) history about Rick Perry’s Texas Enterprise Fund:

Mitchell, Matthew and Philpot, Anne. “Commentary: Enterprise Fund gives Texans’ money to their competitors.” March 22, 2017. Austin American-Statesman. https://www.statesman.com/story/news/2017/03/22/commentary-enterprise-fund-gives-texans-money-to-their-competitors/9998429007/

Meta sells your data (allegedly):

Cooban, Anna. “Meta accused of ‘massive, illegal’ data processing by European consumer groups.” February 20, 2024. CNN. https://www.cnn.com/2024/02/29/tech/meta-data-processing-europe-gdpr/index.html

How to make a whiskey sour:

https://www.liquor.com/recipes/whiskey-sour/

Ingredients we used for an Almond Joy:

Coconut rum, chocolate liqueur, amaretto

If you want to make a Mounds:

Coconut rum, chocolate liqueur

Here are the candy bars we listed:

Whatchamacallit https://www.hersheyland.com/whatchamacallit

100 Grand (née 100,000 Dollar Bar) https://www.backthenhistory.com/articles/the-history-of-100-grand-bars

Marathon https://www.candyfavorites.com/discontinued-marathon-bar-1981?srsltid=AfmBOorLNDONOftL4_K1DObu9pym1FGHNV8sZRMCMG68hdy5HBJ8yQH1

3Musketeers https://www.3musketeers.com/

Milky Way https://www.milkywaybar.com/our-story

Snickers https://www.snickers.com/our-story

And Steve is right, they reformulated the Butterfinger:

Campbell-Schmitt, Adam. “Butterfinger Changed Its Recipe—Here’s How It Tastes.” December 13, 2018. Food and Wine. https://www.foodandwine.com/news/butterfinger-new-recipe-taste-test

Places that Steve went to while in Boston:

The Freedom Trail https://www.thefreedomtrail.org/

USS Constitution https://www.nps.gov/bost/learn/historyculture/ussconst.htm

“Impassioned Destruction” exhibit at the Old State House https://revolutionaryspaces.org/explore/exhibits/impassioned-destruction/

Anne provided misinformation; the Constitution resides at the National Archives Museum:

https://museum.archives.gov/

If you would like some history on the George Floyd protests:

National Museum of African American History & Culture. “How George Floyd’s Death Became A Catalyst for Change.” https://nmaahc.si.edu/explore/stories/how-george-floyds-death-became-catalyst-change

If you would like some history on the L.A. Riots:

Wallenfeldt, Jeff. “Los Angeles Riots of 1992.” Updated: August 21, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/event/Los-Angeles-Riots-of-1992

If you would like some history on the Whiskey Rebellion:

Kotowski, Peter. “Whiskey Rebellion.” The George Washington Presidential Library. https://www.mountvernon.org/library/digitalhistory/digital-encyclopedia/article/whiskey-rebellion

Our bad, Sam Adams did not participate in the Boston Tea Party, but everyone is pretty sure he helped plan it:

The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica. “Samuel Adams.” Updated: July 15, 2024. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Samuel-Adams

And Anne and Mack were wrong. John Adams was totally THERE FOR IT (definitely a fan):

Norton, Amanda. “’The Sublimity of it, charms me’: John Adams and the Boston Tea Party.” Updated: May 8, 2019. Massachusetts Historical Society. https://www.masshist.org/beehiveblog/2015/12/the-sublimity-of-it-charms-me-john-adams-and-the-boston-tea-party/

But yeah, other big names from American history weren’t so enthusiastic:

Roos, Dave. “Why Some Founding Fathers Disapproved of the Boston Tea Party.” December 11, 2023. History. https://www.history.com/news/boston-tea-party-critics-ben-franklin

If you want to watch the Schoolhouse Rock song about the Boston Tea Party:

https://youtu.be/t-9pDZMRCpQ?si=5ltTEu5VJb35VQjR

If you want to watch the Schoolhouse Rock song that Mack was singing without any copyright permission:

https://youtu.be/Y6ikO6LMxF4

The other critically important Boston thing that Steve saw:

Waterworks Museum https://waterworksmuseum.org/

What Mack is reading:

Jon Gertner. The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation. (Penguin Books, 2013).

Transistors, a pretty significant invention:

Steber, George R. “The Story of the Transistor.” Nuts and Volts. https://www.nutsvolts.com/magazine/article/the-story-of-the-transistor

In case you didn’t go to a technical school and didn’t learn about TI:

Dennis, Michael Aaron. “Texas Instruments Incorporated.” Updated: August 22, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/money/Texas-Instruments-Incorporated

Learn about inventions and Thomas Edison:

Library of Congress. “Life of Thomas Alva Edison.” https://www.loc.gov/collections/edison-company-motion-pictures-and-sound-recordings/articles-and-essays/biography/life-of-thomas-alva-edison

Vacuum tubes are pretty if you want to search for a picture of them on your own. If you want to know important technical information about them:

Sosa, Estanisalo Navarro. “Electron tube.” Updated: July 3, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/technology/electron-tube

What did Alexander Graham Bell ever do?

Hochfelder, David. “Alexandar Graham Bell.” Updated: July 29, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Alexander-Graham-Bell

In case you didn’t get the Watson joke:

The Editors of Encyclopaedia Britannica. “Thomas Augustus Watson.” Updated: April 15, 2024. Britannica. https://www.britannica.com/biography/Thomas-Augustus-Watson

If you want to learn about the breakup of Ma Bell:

Gianforti, Adrian. “This Month in Business History: The Breakup of the Bell System.” January 24, 2022. History Factory. https://www.historyfactory.com/insights/this-month-in-business-history-bell-system/

Learn the distinction between pure research and applied research:

Hasa. “Difference Between pure and Applied Research.” March 16, 2017. Difference Between. https://www.differencebetween.com/difference-between-pure-and-vs-applied-research/

Learn about the cosmic microwave background:

Howell, Elizabeth and Dobrijevic, Daisy. “What is the cosmic microwave background?” January 28, 2022. Space. https://www.space.com/33892-cosmic-microwave-background.html

The more common pronunciation is conk:

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/conch

In case you didn’t go to a liberal arts school and didn’t learn about Piggy:

William Golding. Lord of the Flies. (Penguin Books, republished 2003).

Learn about General Atomics:

General Atomics. “History.” https://www.ga.com/about/history

Learn about Southwest Research:

Compton, James R. “Southwest Research Institute.” Updated: November 1, 1995. Texas State Historical Association. https://www.tshaonline.org/handbook/entries/southwest-research-institute

Learn about National Laboratories:

Energy.gov. “Origins.” https://www.energy.gov/science/history

How we made a Reese’s:

Peanut butter whiskey, chocolate liqueur

The age-old question: what is nougat?

Williams, Corey. “What is Nougat and What Is It Made Of?” February 16, 2022. All Recipes. https://www.allrecipes.com/article/what-is-nougat/

Shout-out to Toblerone:

Mondelēz International. “Toblerone.” https://www.mondelezinternational.com/our-brands/toblerone/

Get to know the League of Women Voters:

https://www.lwv.org/

A better way to inform your vote than election projection polling:

https://www.vote411.org/

And the director Quentin Tarantino is not known for telling stories in chronological order. But you already knew that.