How Ukraine’s Kursk Incursion Changed the War in Russia

Global Security Briefing

In this edition, we will be returning to Russia’s war against Ukraine as both sides increasingly look towards another winter of fighting.

Since the autumn/winter of last year, there have been further swings in the war as Russia launched a long offensive and Ukraine suffered a lack of weapons due to political deadlock in the US Congress and a shortage of manpower.

More recently, in a surprise operation, Ukraine has launched a successful incursion into Russia itself – seizing territory in Kursk – and it has continued to inflict damage on Russian naval forces in the Black Sea and developed the ability to attack targets further inside Russia. In August 2024, Russia renewed its attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure ahead of the winter.

It is clear that the war is continuing to evolve, what were red lines are being crossed, and the enormous cost in lives and damage continues to mount. But where does the war stand overall now? More than 30 months into the conflict, is there any sense that one side is closer to winning, and how has Ukraine’s dramatic incursion into Russia’s Kursk region affected the war?

This week, host Neil Melvin is joined by Professor Mark Galeotti, Senior Associate Fellow at RUSI and Director of Mayak Intelligence.