Global Commodities: The art of keeping up with yesterday and avoiding tomorrow

At Any Rate

Speakers:

Natasha Kaneva, Head of Global Commodities Research

2 mbd of crude inventory draw since the end of June bring global stocks to their lowest level since 2017, confirming the resilience of global demand. Yet a substantially softer balance in 2025 is forcing the market to search for a price that will prevent OPEC+ from bringing volumes that are not needed. At current levels of inventories, we believe oil is $10 under-valued and under-owned. Yet, given oil’s significant underperformance in August, we shave our 4Q24 price forecast from $85 to $80, but keep 2025 unchanged at $75.

This podcast was recorded on 6 Sept. 2024.

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