Larry Adam and Neil Shearing on the global macro/markets outlook

Capital Economics Weekly Briefing

Is the US facing a hard landing, a soft landing or no landing? Have stimulus announcements fundamentally changed the China equities story? How should investors trade risks around the US election?

Raymond James CIO Larry Adam joins Group Chief Economist Neil Shearing on the latest episode of The Weekly Briefing from Capital Economics. They talk to David Wilder about the big issues in global macro and markets in a wide-ranging chat that takes in:

• How quickly the Fed will unwind its restrictive policy and where it will stop cutting rates;
• What's holding European equities back from outperforming the US;
• Why escalating conflict in the Middle East hasn't had a big impact on markets so far, and what could change that.

Further reading

Raymond James Letter from the CIO: The Great American Road Trip
https://www.raymondjames.com/trimaranadvisors/resources/2024/10/01/the-great-american-road-trip
CE Group Chief Economist Note: How Trump could erode the US economic advantage in a fractured world
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/blog/how-trump-could-erode-us-economic-advantage-fractured-world
CE: US Macro Scenarios dashboard
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/data-and-charts/scenarios
CE: China stimulus - Your questions answered
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/china-economics-update/china-stimulus-your-questions-answered
CE: Latest thoughts on r* and where rates end this cycle
https://www.capitaleconomics.com/publications/global-economics-update/latest-thoughts-r-and-where-rates-end-cycle

About Larry Adam
Larry Adam joined Raymond James in 2018 as the chief investment officer for Private Client Group. Prior to joining Raymond James, Larry, as a managing director, held the dual roles of CIO of the Americas and global chief investment strategist for Deutsche Bank private wealth management. He sat on the U.S. investment committee, the management team responsible for investment strategy and asset allocation for U.S. discretionary client portfolios. He was also a member of Deutsche Bank’s global investment committee that formalizes and establishes the global house view. Prior to being named Deutsche Bank’s global chief investment strategist, Larry was the head of the asset allocation and quantitative analysis group, the group responsible for analyzing and implementing client-specific asset allocation strategies. He joined Deutsche Bank in 1992.

Larry received a B.B.A. with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1991 and received a master’s degree in business with a concentration in finance from Loyola University Maryland in 1993. He received the Chartered Financial Analyst designation in 1996, the Certified Investment Management AnalystSM certification in 2001 and the Certified Financial Planner® designation in 2004. Larry has been featured prominently on CNBC and Bloomberg and is frequently quoted in well-known publications such as the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s and the International Herald Tribune.

About Neil Shearing
Neil Shearing is Group Chief Economist at Capital Economics. He has overall responsibility for managing our team of economists and leading our research, as well as developing the firm’s products and its relationship with clients. He is also a director of the company. Neil is the first point of contact for many clients and presents regularly on the global economic and financial market outlook. He is a well-known voice within the investment community and has written articles in the Financial Times and a number of other newspapers, as well as appearing regularly on TV and radio.

Prior to becoming Group Chief Economist, Neil was Chief Emerging Markets Economist, managing a team that won several awards for forecast accuracy. He also managed our New York office. Neil joined Capital Economics from HM Treasury where he worked as an Economic Adviser in various areas, including fiscal policy and global economics. He holds degrees in Economics from the University of York and the University of London and is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts.