L2 Capital Podcast #06: Chat with Alasdair Macleod – Goldmoney

L2 Capital

In today's episode, Marcelo Lopez spoke with Alasdair Macleod, who besides being a very experienced investor, is the Head of Research at Goldmoney.

Alasdair talks about Goldmoney acting as custodian for clients around the world who wish to store precious metals outside the banking system and also the interesting services it provides to its investors.

When questioned about the recent market performance, marked by pronounced declines in late 2018 and a bullish reaction in January 2019, Macleod explains these events and establishes a connection between decisions made by the Fed, the stage of the credit cycle and economic protectionism, in addition to giving his vision of what to expect for this year.

He also draws a distinction between the credit cycle and the business cycle and highlights the factors that characterize the current cycle and uses recent data to give an opinion on the stage we are in today.

Asked what the direction of central bank interest rates should be in the face of current circumstances, Macleod gives his prognosis for rates, as well as its consequences for the economy and markets.

He then discusses inflation measured by governments around the world and points to the discrepancy between what is seen in practice and what is recorded by official price indexes.

When asked by Marcelo about what can be expected of the performance of gold in the scenario that is being drawn, Alasdair highlights the metal's ability to preserve the purchasing power of those who have it in situations of currency devaluation and cites historical examples to prove his point.

Macleod then shares his view on investments in gold stocks as well as ETFs and how they can react in scenarios of global deceleration and appreciation of the commodity.

He reveals his expectation for Fed decisions from now on and draws a parallel between the crisis of 1929 and today, highlighting the current unprecedented factors such as high public debt and deficits and dependence on foreign borrowers. Besides that, Alasdair conjectures the impacts of these potential decisions to the dynamics of interest rates.

Alasdair also brings a positioning of the electorate on the political spectrum. About Brexit, he meticulously comments about the stage of the process and the impacts that could be felt in the markets.

Finally, responding to a request for guidance on how to position the portfolio to deal with the events he believes are on the way, Macleod talks about analogous situations of the past, specifically about Germany in the 1920s.

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The L2 Capital Podcast focuses on potential opportunities in the market, and brings to you industry leaders and intelligent conversation about their respective areas of expertise.