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Investor and writer of the popular newsletter The Diff, Byrne Hobart, and co-host Erik Torenberg discuss today’s major inflection points in technology, business, and markets – and help listeners build a diversified portfolio of trends and ideas for the future. Topics covered: Finance, Venture Capital, Tech, AI, Crypto, and Industry Cycles The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co
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The Diff is a newsletter exploring the technologies, companies, and trends that are making the future high-variance. Posts range from in-depth company profiles, applied financial theory, strategy breakdowns and macroeconomics.
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We live in a world where our civilization and daily lives depend upon institutions, infrastructure, and technological substrates that are _complicated_ but not _unknowable_. Join Patrick McKenzie (patio11) as he discusses how decisions, technology, culture, and incentives shape our finance, technology, government, and more, with the people who built (and build) those Complex Systems.
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Patrick Blumenthal (@PatrickJBlum) interviews some of the world's leading economists, political scientists, and philosophers to discuss their ideas and what they mean for society, technology, and the economy.
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This week, Byrne Hobart is joined by Patrick McKenzie (patio11), host of the podcast Complex Systems, to discuss the complexity and endless fascination of financial infrastructures, the role of fraud in finance, talent spotting strategies and the importance of building networks. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: …
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Byrne Hobart to discuss Byrne’s vantage point as writer of The Diff, a tech and finance newsletter. Byrne explains the toxicity of the 30-year mortgage, the dynamics of the finance newsletter ecosystem, how rationalist epistemics can be applied to hedge funds, and the joy of learning about an industry from sc…
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In this episode, Patrick McKenzie (patio11) is joined by Stephen Grugett, a co-founder of Manifold, to discuss prediction markets. They cover how prediction markets work, their efficiency in aggregating information, and why they serve as a minority report against prevailing narratives. They cover past controversies, potential risks, and the philoso…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Meta's Open-Source AI Economics, Re-Revisited (08:26) - A Word From Our Sponsors (08:29) - The Quantum Gambit (09:33) - Monetizing Volatility (10:45) - Banking and Credit (12:03) - How Long …
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss the resurgence of prediction markets, the balance of sophisticated vs. 'dumb' money, Biden's nomination odds and the impact of AI on software economics. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- SPONSORS: BABBEL: 🌐 Ready t…
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Patrick McKenzie (aka @Patio11) is joined by Kelsey Piper, a journalist for Vox’s Future Perfect. Kelsey recently reported on equity irregularities at OpenAI in May of 2024, leading to an improvement of their policies in this area. We discuss the social function of equity in the technology industry, why the tech industry and reporters have had a fr…
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On this week’s episode of The Riff, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss how the 2024 presidential election has changed, why Wikipedia’s partisanship problem is difficult to solve, and the strategy behind Amazon’s media business. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --…
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg dive deep into David Graeber's controversial concept of 'Bullshit Jobs,' exploring its validity and impact. They also discuss the future of labor and employment in the era of AI, the intricate dynamics of globalization, and the complexities of corporate governance. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and exec…
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Patrick McKenzie (patio11) and Ricki Heicklen discuss Ricki’s innovative approaches to teaching trading. Trading is traditionally taught only by practitioners, to practitioners. The curricula that trading firms use are not published externally, to avoid empowering competitors. Ricki explains how she teaches trade mechanics, how markets and traders …
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - “Bullshit Jobs” is a Terrible, Curiosity-Killing Concept (17:48) - A Word From Our Sponsors (18:30) - Sanction Economics (20:00) - Exiting (21:19) - Building Complements (22:18) - Shares and…
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss the evolution of monetary systems, the economics of AI investments, and how AI is impacting the job market for junior software developers. 🔥Apply to join over 400 founders and execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/to/JCkphVqj --- SPONSORS: BABBEL: 🌐 Ready to achi…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Supply Chain of Talent (07:36) - Getting the Cycle Right (08:55) - Regulatory Arbitrage in E-Commerce (10:04) - Dry Powder and Meta-Stability (11:11) - The Split Market (12:00) - Transmi…
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This week, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss a lesser-known Chamath Palihapitiya story, the index rebalancing trade as a postmodern part of finance, AI labs, crypto, and more. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. Byrne Hobart is hiring an associate! Check out the JD here: https://www.the…
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This week, writer Byrne Hobart and investor Erik Torenberg discuss the economics of conferences and cities, rise of meme stocks, future of coding in the age of AI and more. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplo…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - "Nobody Knows Anything": Backtests are Hard (06:59) - The Economics of Hacking (07:43) - Lead Generation (09:30) - Adverse Selection (10:58) - Tip Economics (12:36) - First and Last Resort…
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss populist cycles, why billionaires buy media companies, how to invest if you think AGI is coming soon, and more. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogx…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Bid Ask View of Who Gets to Raise and What Gets Traded (06:40) - A Word From Our Sponsors (07:38) - Privacy and Insurance (08:59) - AI Fragmentation (09:40) - Too Central to Fail? (10:45…
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss Elon Musk's and Yann Lecun's Tweets, what we can learn from Google's API decumentation leaks, how Apple is planning on improving Siri, and more. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Tu…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Details! (08:53) - A Word From Our Sponsors (09:48) - The Google Feedback Loop (10:42) - Fees on What? (12:41) - The Micro Meta Turnaround (14:34) - Yes, We're Doing the Meme Stock Thing Aga…
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne talk about xAI's fundraising round, Vivek Ramaswamy's investment in BuzzFeed, and the dynamics of using ads to monetize AI. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmp…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Get Used to a More Hallucinatory Search Experience (09:19) - Cap Structure Arbitrage and Elon Musk (10:51) - Active, Passive, and Risk (12:57) - Convergent Evolution (14:09) - Market Timing …
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne talk about meme stocks, the nature of reserve currencies, and why you should consider not owning a home in America. beehiiv: Head to https://beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - One Edge or Many? Reflections on Renaissance Technologies (11:22) - Retention (12:24) - Training Data (13:20) - Social Networking Primitives and Local Maxima (14:33) - Renting (15:02) - Ads…
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne talk about Amazon’s potential to buy a passenger airline, hidden economic gains, equities, and more. beehiiv: Head to https://Beehiiv.com and use code "MOZ" for 20% off your first three months. 🔥 Apply to join over 400 founders and Execs in the Turpentine Network: https://hmplogxqz0y.typeform.com/t…
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne talk about how to apply Costco's business model in other industries, the risky business of Martingale strategies, usage as a potential barrier to AI model development, and more. Get Harmonic: Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine during your demo. --- This sh…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Martingale Beliefs (07:18) - Country Equity (08:25) - Costs and Benefits (09:38) - Continuation Funds (10:36) - Deepfaking the Dead and the Last Generation of Celebrities (11:47) - Mature Fi…
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss AI & education, Stripe's shift towards unbundling, and the possibility of 24 hour markets. Get Harmonic: Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine during your demo. --- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, cov…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - AI Ruins Education the way Pulleys Ruin Powerlifting (12:38) - The Other Kind of Bank Unwind (13:30) - AI Asset Plays (14:15) - Retail Rides Again (14:59) - Single-Family Rentals (16:21) - A…
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss income sharing agreements, the privacy/security/usability efficient frontier, and how Meta ended up with all their GPUs. Get Harmonic: Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine during your demo. --- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcas…
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss the acquisition landscape, how to write great business memos, and why it's hard to monetize a successful ChatGPT wrapper. Get Harmonic: Head to https://bit.ly/harmonicturpentine and make sure to mention Turpentine during your demo. --- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podca…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Most Market Phenomena are Older than they Look (06:58) - Labor Arbitrage (07:40) - Reddit and Search (09:23) - On-Prem (10:21) - Audience of One (11:07) - Ads Everywhere…
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss pivots in hard tech, cybersecurity and privacy, and the considerations in how often to enforce the law. For listeners watching the video, please note that Erik’s video recording dropped out towards the end of the episode. We hope you enjoy the conversation nonetheless. --- This show is prod…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - The Data Business, At Three Resolutions (08:45) - The Instagram Numbers (09:57) - Trader Pay (11:08) - The Distribution of Near-Misses (12:54) - Benefits (13:34) - Funding Cycles…
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne delve into corporate espionage, algorithmic collusion, and the lifecycle of companies amidst technological changes. --- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of industry insiders and e…
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss Austin real estate, why Duolingo has remained strong post-pandemic, and how to identify spurious correlations during data analysis. --- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and culture — all from the perspective of…
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In this episode, Byrne Hobart and Erik Torenberg discuss how technological changes influence markets and business adaptability. They explore the dynamics and challenges of e-commerce roll-ups, the unique economic incentives of large platforms like Facebook and Google, the complexities of content moderation on social media platforms, and social secu…
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On today’s episode, Byrne Hobart delves into the intricacies of technology-induced market shifts, hedge fund dynamics, Byrne’s post on outage economics, and the evolving landscape of open source and proprietary AI models. --- This show is produced by Turpentine: a network of podcasts, newsletters, and more, covering technology, business, and cultur…
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On this week's episode of The Riff, Erik and Byrne discuss lessons about Tiger Global from Carrie Sun’s book Private Equity, the role of alternative data in investing, and why it’s hard to make a good dating app. --- The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: turpentine.co --- Check out Erik's new showRequest for Startupsfeat…
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Byrne and Erik discuss company valuations, short selling, company earnings guidance, market predictions, and the behavior of companies and investors in financial markets. --- The Riff is a part of the Turpentine podcast network. Learn more: https://turpentine.co --- Check out Erik's new show Request for Startups featuring a rotating cast of founder…
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This is an audio version of the free newsletter. Read the newsletter at thediff.co, and subscribe for an additional 3 posts (and podcasts!) per week. (00:00) - Exposed! Your Torrid Love Affair With Airline Fees (08:43) - Malicious Compliance (11:01) - Sanctions and Third Countries (12:00) - Bing and BATNAs (13:19) - Celebrity Endorsements and Binar…
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