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Open interest in the grain markets is shifting, signaling potential changes in trader sentiment as we approach the new marketing year starting on September 1. Seasonals are looking favorable, with market conditions typically strengthening ahead of the harvest. Soybeans are seeing an improving situation, supported by demand and crop progress, while …

By David Freiheit

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By David Freiheit

Geopolitical tensions are once again impacting the markets today, adding to the uncertainty. China’s pullback on purchases of corn, wheat, rice, and barley is also creating additional pressure. As we approach the month’s end and head into a three-day holiday weekend, market volatility could increase. Acreage changes in Argentina are drawing attenti…

Geopolitical tensions are rising as Israeli forces conduct a sweeping military operation in the occupied West Bank, adding uncertainty to global markets. Meanwhile, China is pulling back on its purchases of key agricultural commodities like corn, wheat, rice, and barley, which could pressure prices. Domestically, the ProFarmer Crop Tour highlighted…

There's green on the screen across much of the agricultural sector, driven by non-commercial buying in both grains and livestock. In the cattle market, feeders experienced some commercial selling, while live cattle saw increased buying interest. Hogs are rallying back, showing renewed strength. Additionally, crop maturity is progressing earlier tha…

Now that the ProFarmer Tour is behind us, the marketing focus will likely shift to the upcoming USDA reports, particularly the September WASDE, which will be crucial for refining yield and production expectations. Additionally, market participants will be closely monitoring fund positions, which provide insight into market sentiment and potential p…

By David Freiheit

The ProFarmer numbers provide a crucial on-the-ground perspective, often highlighting regional variations that can either confirm or challenge broader estimates like those from the August WASDE report. These numbers are gathered through a detailed process where scouts physically measure crop conditions across key areas, assessing factors such as po…

Navigating the current market landscape requires careful consideration of multiple factors that could significantly impact outcomes. The Canada Rail strike, for instance, presents logistical challenges that could disrupt supply chains and lead to delays or shortages, affecting market stability. Late in the day the strike was put into arbitration by…

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This week, all eyes are on the FED discussions, which could have significant implications for the economy and markets. The Pro Farmer Tour is also drawing attention, offering critical insights into crop conditions just as August weather patterns start to show their effects. Adding to the uncertainty, a potential Canadian rail strike looms, threaten…

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The crop tour is currently underway, providing valuable insights into the condition of this year’s crops. Grains have seen a nice bounce, which is encouraging, but the drier weather could still have a significant impact on yields. As market conditions shift, many are wondering if this might present a selling opportunity. Meanwhile, attention is als…

The grain markets have taken a hit, contributing to the overall sloppiness in the trade. Traders are uncertain about their next moves, as they're bombarded with rollercoaster economic news that makes it difficult to predict market direction. With the possibility of rate cuts after the September meeting, there's added speculation about the future. C…

The wheat market has resumed its decline, leading the broader grain markets lower. While the latest CPI data continues to exert some influence, traders are now shifting their focus to the upcoming crop tours next week. These tours are eagerly anticipated, as they will provide crucial insights into the condition of this year's crops. With questions …

By David Freiheit

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is influencing stock markets, adding to the complex mix of geopolitical tensions that are already impacting financial and commodity markets. As California's new biofuel policies are set to begin in September, traders are closely watching for potential ripple effects across the agricultural sector. Amid t…

Grain markets are experiencing continued weakness as the industry grapples with the implications of recent data. The unexpected numbers have left many participants in a state of shock, causing a reassessment of market positions. There are also rising concerns about potential shortages in Growing Degree Units (GDUs), which could affect crop maturity…

Jeff Peterson of Heartland Farm Partners recaps the factors that influenced the day's trade.1. What were the biggest surprises to you in the WASDE report today?2. What did you think of the corn and soybean yields overall?3. Any demand changes for corn and soybeans?4. How did the US ending stocks/stocks to use/values look?5. What do you think we wil…

By David Freiheit

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This growing year has highlighted a significant problem: the contrast between the attitude in global agriculture versus ag stocks. Import barriers and tariffs have further complicated the market, impacting trade flows and pricing. The recent wheat purchase by Algeria has drawn attention, signaling potential shifts in global demand. As we approach t…

By David Freiheit

If you continue to focus on the problems in 15% of the Corn Belt, you may make poor marketing decisions by ignoring the conditions in the other 85%. Despite regional issues, overall numbers could be higher, as indicated by StoneX yield estimates. Attention is also on the South American growing season, which can impact global supply dynamics. The fi…

It was another down day in the trade, with the equity markets continuing to capture attention. The upcoming August 12th WASDE report is highly anticipated, as it could show adjusted acres, potentially influencing market dynamics. Despite the broader market downturn, cattle managed to recover a bit, offering a glimmer of hope amidst the ongoing vola…

The current situation is not a meltdown in the system but rather a correction in the equities, so there's no need to panic yet. The Bloomberg Commodity Index (BCOM) charts are broken down by Darren. With the big crop report coming up on August 12th, there's significant anticipation about the numbers it will reveal. Meanwhile, the cattle market shou…

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Looking back on the market week, there's been notable activity as traders anticipate the August 12 WASDE report and its insights on acreage crop potential. Throughout the week, market participants have been adjusting their positions based on various factors, including weather forecasts and geopolitical events. In the livestock sector, cattle feeder…

Today's FED talk is generating significant interest as it may impact economic conditions affecting agriculture. The size of this year’s crops is a major concern, with weather conditions being closely monitored for any potential impact on yields. Additionally, China's decision to buy beans from Brazil is adding another layer of complexity to the mar…

Now might not be the ideal time to maximize farm profits, given the current market conditions. The upcoming FED meeting tomorrow is adding uncertainty, along with ongoing weather concerns that could impact crop yields. Farmers are also eagerly awaiting the August 12th crop report for further insights. Meanwhile, the cattle market continues to exper…

By David Freiheit

Soybean prices are showing a slight improvement compared to Friday, while corn prices have risen. Weather models continue to play a crucial role in market fluctuations, adding uncertainty to the forecast. Political developments are also influencing market conditions. Despite the positive trend in corn, cattle prices have struggled, facing downward …

Early short covering did little to support grain prices, as shifting weather models introduced new uncertainties. Stock movement has reverted back to trade, complicating the market outlook. The risk for old crop corn remains high, driven by fluctuating conditions and market dynamics. Meanwhile, feeder cattle prices are influenced by corn movement, …