Actionable insights on building wealth from the top experts in money & the markets Hosted by Adam Taggart Support this podcast: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/thoughtful-money/support
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John Hussman: It Sounds Nuts, But Stocks Could Crash 50-70%
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There's an old saying on Wall Street that "no one rings a bell at the market top"This is why so many surprised investors got so badly burned when the DotCom and 2008 stock bubbles burst.But those who noticed the extreme market conditions beforehand, whose analysis of history convinced them that defense was more prudent than fear of missing out, the…
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Too-High Cost Of Living Is Destroying Consumer Confidence | Joanne Hsu
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If you listen to the politicians and the headlines, you'll hear a lot of talk about the "strong consumer" who is keeping the economy happily chugging along.But when we hear from actual consumers themselves, we hear a very different story. The majority of households are struggling under the surge in their cost of living post-COVID. Many express desp…
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Rick Rule: "We're In A Real Sweet Spot" For Investors
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The purchasing power of the world's major fiat currencies has taken a beating since the pandemic.Just in the US, due to the spike in inflation, Truflation now estimates that the dollar has lost over a quarter of its purchasing power since January 2020.Due to this higher inflation, as well as continued expectations for higher secular inflation over …
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We're Due For A Correction | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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With stocks still firmly in overbought territory and the uncertainty of the US presidential election nearing, portfolio manager Lance Roberts warns "We're due for a correction"He expects a 5-10% pullback in the near term. And perhaps a slightly larger drop leading up to November as Wall Street de-risks ahead of voting.Lance and Adam review the late…
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Unavoidable Crisis: We Have Too Much Debt That We Can't Afford To Repay | Matt Piepenburg
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When asked last month if the US economy was heading into stagflation, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said he didn't see the "stag" nor the "flation" in the data he looks at.Well, US Q2 GDP growth estimates as forecasted by the Atlanta Fed's GDP Now service are plunging. And Q1's weak reported GDP growth rate of 1.6% was revised further downwards to a palt…
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Is The A.I.-Pocalypse Near For Tech Stocks? | Fred Hickey
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So far this year, the top 10 stocks in the S&P 500 have accounted for more than 76% of the index's gain.This is the 2nd most concentrated reading for the S&P in the past 20 years. The highest percentage was 79%, achieved in 2007, right before the Global Financial Crisis.Are we in a new AI-powered Tech renaissance that will continuing powering the m…
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Well, the markets are back at all-time highs and central banks around the world are increasingly talking of interest rate cuts...or actually making them.Will that take asset prices even higher from here?Are we in a new golden era for stocks?To find out what the technicals are telling us, as well as to dig into the macro side as well, we're fortunat…
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Stocks Remain Overbought. Will Poor Earnings End The Rally? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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Stocks hit new all-time highs this week and despite being very overbought, momentum is still higher.What could end this rally is the upcoming earnings season, cautions portfolio manager Lance Roberts.Profit growth estimates are EXTREMELY optimistic right now. If they disappoint, a reversal could be fast & furious.Lance and I talk about that, the re…
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Only 1 Rate Cut In 2024? What Does The Latest Fed Guidance Really Mean? | Axel Merk
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In its latest guidance released this week, the Federal Reserve is holding interest rates steady for now. The Federal Funds rate will remain unchanged at 5.25%But the Fed did lower its rate cut forecast for 2024 to just 1. And it raised its 2025 rate cut expectations upwards from 3 to 4.It largely did this because its outlook on inflation is notably…
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Will Rising Unemployment Trigger A Recession? | Michael Kantrowitz
1:23:54
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Despite the Federal Reserve's efforts to tame inflation by cooling the economy with its aggressive "higher for longer" interest rates and Quantitative Tightening, the US has managed to avoid recession. Consumer spending has held up, largely due to the "strong" jobs market.But is that likely to remain the case going forward?And if not, if unemployme…
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Doomberg: These "Big" Energy Solutions Will Power Tomorrow's Economy
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In today's discussion we look at the all-important energy market. Remember, without energy, there is no economy.As we look to the future, where are global energy trends headed?Which ones are we likely to turn to more to power the world of tomorrow?And where are the best opportunities for investors likely to lie?To discuss in depth, we're fortunate …
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Will Coming Week's Inflation & Fed News Cause Markets To Pop Or Drop? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
1:51:16
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Stocks remain overbought at current levels and volatility remains low.Portfolio manager Lance Roberts expects markets to tread sideways until next week's CPI data and latest Fed guidance are in.If they show the economy is indeed slowing down faster than expected and/or inflation is moderating, stocks will likely pop as rate cut hopes will be put ba…
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Brent Johnson: Important Update On The Dollar Milkshake Theory
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According to Truflation, the US dollar has lost nearly 25% of its purchasing power since January of 2020.Many everyday Americans struggling to pay their monthly bills may argue that's an understatement.What the US dollar does, vs real things as well as vs other national currencies, has very real implications -- economically, financially & geopoliti…
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Ted Oakley: A Bear Market WILL Happen
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As we enter the midpoint of 2024, confidence in the economy and the financial markets is a lot higher than it was at this time a year ago.Stock in particular, have had a phenomenal run over the past 7 months.So it's little surprise that the bulls expect the party to continue on through the rest of the year.Will it?To find out, we turn to the experi…
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Jim Grant: Inflation & Interest Rates Are More Likely To Rise Than Fall In The Years Ahead
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Between February 2022 and August 2023, in order to combat hot inflation, the Federal Reserve rocketed its discount rate from near 0% to 5.25% -- the most aggressive interest rate schedule in living memory.Since then, the Fed has kept the rate at 5.25% -- the 'higher for longer' eraBut despite this, even when paired with Quantitative Tightening, eco…
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Near -Term Sell Signal Triggered For Stocks | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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The S&P 500 has recently had a near-term sell signal triggered, during a week where many Tech stocks -- including Nvidia -- sold off harder than the general markets.This shouldn't be a cause for major concern. But it explains why the market is down from it all-time high 10 days ago, and may likely have farther to fall until the overbought condition…
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If you' re planning on possibly purchasing or selling a car in the near future, or just curious about how the latest action in the auto market are impacting your current car's value, you'll want to listen up to today's guest.We're fortunate to be joined today by auto expert and car dealership owner Yossi Levi, who will give us his latest boots-on-t…
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Should We Be More Worried About A Social Breaking Point Than A Financial One? | Peter Atwater
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In markets as in life, sentiment drives decision making.And until sentiment shifts, the status quo will maintain. Even when at extreme conditions.Today's guest has made the study of sentiment his life's work.Which is particularly timely given that consumer confidence continues to plunge, with the recent April Consumer Confidence numbers coming in f…
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Tom McClellan: These Decades-Long Correlations All Predict A Major Market Sell-Off Later This Year
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Stocks markets have had a massive run since November of last year and all the major indices -- the S&P 500, the Dow and the NASDAQ - have hit all-time highs this week.US GDP growth for the current quarter is currently predicted to be 3.6%, global economic growth as measured by PMIs has turned positive for the first time in 2 years, the official une…
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Extended, Overbought Market Likely To "Cool Its Heels" Soon | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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It's been a week to remember for stocks...After the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ each hitting all-time highs earlier this week, Nvidia blew past expectations on both revenue and earnings, eclipsing $2.5 trillion in market value.The bulls are feeling large & in charge as a result, though stocks may take breather soon -- as signaled by Thursday's bloo…
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Bull Market In Gold Still In Early Innings | Ronnie Stoeferle
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Today's guest is best known for publishing the world's most respected annual analysis of the precious metals market, known as the In Gold We Trust Report.It covers what's driving supply & demand, the performance of the metals vs the companies that mine them, and what the outlook for prices is.This year's report, subtitled The New Gold Playbook, was…
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Wait...Interest Rates Cuts Will Be MORE Restrictive Than Hikes? | Cameron Dawson
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After a blowout Q1, stocks swooned in April, raising concerns the bull rally had ended. Nope. The bulls returned in May and as of this recording, the S&P, the Dow and the NASDAQ are all trading at all-time-highs. Wall Street is confident, the financial media is downright gleeful, and the market momentum has a lot of tailwinds behind it right now. B…
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10 Million Prime-Age Adults Giving Up On Work | Nicholas Eberstadt
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While the official unemployment rate remains at a low 3.9%, there is an epidemic in the US and other Western countries of men -- and now increasingly women -- without work.These are millions of otherwise able-bodied working age adults who have given up on finding work, often driven to do so out of frustration and despair. It's gotten to the point w…
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Stocks Zoom Back To All-Time Highs. Will They Stick? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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Three week's ago, the S&P had fallen below 5,000 and Wall Street was worried the party in stocks might be over. Nope. Stocks rebounded and, as of today, the S&P, Dow, and (almost) NASDAQ sit at all-time highs. Technically, it looks like the bull trend is set to continue says portfolio manager Lance Roberts, especially with $1 trillion of announced …
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Hey Investors: Stocks Fall When The Fed Starts Cutting Rates, Says History | Danielle Park
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When today's guest appeared for the first time on this channel a few months ago, a start was born.Those who hadn't yet heard of Danielle Park were impressed by both her command of the macro data and her unflinching courage to call things as she sees them.She highlighted a number of concerns about the trajectory of the economy and markets back then …
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Big Money Buying Up Our Homes Is "Never Going To Stop" | Ken McElroy
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Many of the recent housing analysts I've talked with, like in last week's excellent interview with mortgage expert Melody Wright, see tougher times ahead for the real estate market. So for further context, I thought it would be helpful to get a true "boots on the ground" view from one of America's more successful property investors. What is he seei…
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Stephanie Pomboy: The "Spent Up & Lent Up" Consumer Is Tapped Out
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It feels like a tale of two economies right now. If you ask an economist, chances are you'll hear that the US is doing great, growing faster than its G7 peers, with low unemployment and a stock market back near all-time highs. But if you ask the average man on the street, you'll likely hear a very different story. One of hardship, where wages aren'…
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Stocks May Cool Off For A Bit After Best Week Of 2024 | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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The Dow just had its best week of 2024. And the S&P remains on a tear higher from its mid-April lows. As a result, looking at short-term conditions, stocks have quickly returned to overbought conditions, says portfolio manager Lance Roberts. It's likely they'll have a cooling off period over the coming week or two. Expect a retest of the 50 daily m…
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The Big Short 2.0: Are $Trillions Of New Loans About To Be Pumped Into The Housing Market? | Melody Wright
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A few days ago, an article appeared in the Financial Times revealing that "Last month, the government-sponsored mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac filed a proposal with its regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Agency, to enter into the secondary mortgage market, otherwise known as home equity loans" The article's author, Meredith Whitney, claims…
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David Rosenberg: Is A Jobs Shock About To Hit?
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Today's guest expert just released a warning that the official jobs data reported by the government are "overstated by historical proportions" And when the downward revisions get released, it will shock both the Federal Reserve and the financial markets. For the details on this, we turn to the man who wrote the report, highly-respected economist & …
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The Days Of Easy Returns Are Over As Volatility Resumes | Simon White, Bloomberg
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Stubbornly sticky inflation looks to be turning the Federal Reserve's campaign of Higher For Longer interest rates into "Higher For Even Longer" Today's guest warns that "Markets are unprepared for price growth that is becoming entrenched". Nor do they appear prepared for bond yields to remain at today's rates, let alone march higher from here. Rem…
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Geopolitics & Investing Will Be A LOT More Complicated From Here On | Michael Every, Rabobank
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Since today's guest was last on this program back in December, the world has continued to fracture geopolitically. Where is that trend taking us? And what will the impact be on global prosperity? The majority of folks who watch this Thoughtful Money channel are primarily from the US, Canada, Europe and Australia. So to provide a perspective from a …
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Buy Signal Triggered As Market Action Starting To Favor The Bulls | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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Stock prices are compressing in a wedge pattern suggesting the market is going to make a breakout soon. But in which direction? We'll soon know for sure, but portfolio manager Lance Roberts' models triggered a buy signal today. So he thinks the odds favor the bulls. Why discuss why in today's Market Recap, as well react to this week's Fed guidance,…
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A More Cautious Fed Signals 'High For EVEN Longer' Interest Rates | Axel Merk
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Yesterday, May 1 2024, the Federal Reserve issued its latest policy statement, followed by a press conference by Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The Fed held its policy interest rate steady at 5.25%, as expected. Somewhat surprising to Wall Street was the Fed's announcement that it will reduce the scope of its Quantitative Tightening program starting in J…
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Can The Economy Be Saved? | Dr Art Laffer
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If we care about the future of the economy, then we have to pay close attention to the policies that shape it.We are currently living in an age of extreme -- and in certain cases, unprecedented -- levels of monetary and fiscal policy.Is that wise? Or should market forces be allowed to play out more & free us from the constant intervention of the ce…
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Lyn Alden: The New Era Of Fiscal Dominance = More Inflation, Slower Economy
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In order to succeed, it's critical to understand the rules you're playing by. And the rules for investing may have recently changed. There's a good argument to be made that we are now in an era of fiscal dominance. Today's guest, one of the smarter you'll get the chance to hear from, is certainly making that case. So what exactly is fiscal dominanc…
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Is The Market Correction Over? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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Is the market downdraft that sent stocks 5% lower from their recent all-time highs over? It's looking like it could be. But the market is at a "critical juncture" observes portfolio manager Lance Roberts. The S&P is getting quite close to its 50 and 20 Daily Moving Averages. If it rises above them, then we're likely back off to the races and new al…
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Michael Pento: Recession Soon, Then Rampant Stagflation
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With the market now expecting less than 2 rate cuts this year -- perhaps none at all until next year according to Bank of America -- what does that mean for the economy? Can it handle "higher for even longer" interest rates without slowing markedly? Or, even worse, something systemic breaking? And what impact will these higher rates likely have on …
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Why Did Stocks Just Fall 5%? | New Harbor Financial
1:06:58
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WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at https://www.thoughtfulmoney.comStocks have sold off sharply since hitting all time highs just 3 weeks ago.Bond prices are falling, too.What's going on here?Is this just a needed pullback to remove excessive froth before the market re…
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Time To Go Short The Market? | Kevin Muir
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On the famous fear/greed index, after spending most of the past year and half in "greed", we've suddenly switched to "fear" over a very short time frame. The S&P has broken below both its 20 and 50 Daily Moving Averages. Inflation printed hotter than expected, making Wall Street start to doubt the Federal Reserve's ability to deliver expected rate …
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S&P Drops Below 5000: How Much Farther Is It Likely To Fall? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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Well, the relentless bull rally that began in November is over. Stocks fell hard this week, with the S&P breaking below 5000 on Friday. It's now down nearly 300 points from its all-time hit, which it hit just 3 weeks ago. How low is this pullback likely to go? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts and I discuss just that in this week's Market Recap, as w…
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Get Ready For "Much Larger Swings To The Downside" | Adam Kobeissi
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The headline economic data gives a comforting sense the economy is strong. The media headlines tell us the consumer is "resilient" But if you ask most Americans, they'll tell you they're struggling. Last year, a Forbes Advisor survey revealed that nearly 70% of respondents either identified as living paycheck to paycheck (40%) or—even more concerni…
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Iran vs Israel: How Worried Should We Be? | Ryan Bohl
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This is a live Special Report with geopolitical expert Ryan Bohl, MidEast analyst for the RANE Network. Given the serious nature of and confusion around the escalation of hostilities between Iran & Israel, I've brought Ryan on the program to ask him:- The drivers of tension between Iran and Israel- What led to this weekend's attack?- What do you ex…
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Gold Is At An All-Time High. What Does That Mean For Markets? | Axel Merk
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The price of gold has experienced a breakout over the past month and a half. What does that mean? Is that a sign that investors are worried about higher inflation to come? Or that capital is fleeing to safety in advance of approaching economic trouble? Or is this price surge due to speculative zeal? For answers, we turn to capital manager Axel Merk…
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Now That We're In Reflation: Still Be Bullish, Just Not As Much | Darius Dale
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When I last interviewed today's guest back in December, he said that the forecast of his proprietary model made him about "as bullish as he'd ever been on stocks" heading into 2024. And to give credit where credit is due, his positioning was spot on the money. The S&P 500 & NASDAQ both increased by 11% in Q1 So what is his model telling us to expec…
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Stocks Have Broken Below Their Trendline. Will They Regain It? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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The unending string of up weeks we saw in stocks in Q1 has ended here in April. The market had a volatile week, with the S&P ending roughly 100 points lower and bond yields continuing to rise, with the UST 10-year now over 4.5% Notably, the S&P has broken below the bullish trendline it has been trading in since the bull rally began back in November…
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Stocks To Fall ~20%, Recover Before The Election, Then "Drop Precipitously" | David Brady
1:18:39
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In Q1, investors could do no wrong. Making money was easy as almost every asset class rose to new highs as markets anticipated coming interest rate cuts from. But here at the start of Q2, things are starting to feel a lot less safe. Suddenly stock prices are plateauing, and services inflation plus a swiftly rising oil price are quickly dashing hope…
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The Market Is Priced For A Fairytale Economy, But Stagflation Is Much More Likely | Jesse Felder
1:08:08
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Today's guest expert is concerned that too many investors, giddy with the ferocious market gains since November, are increasingly willing to pay prices for assets that only make sense if the pace of gains continues into the far future. This is called "extrapolating the unsustainable" and is a hallmark of late stage price melt-ups. Historically, thi…
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Marc Faber: Most Households Are Drowning Financially While The Rich Get Richer
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There's a lot of uncertainty in the world right now -- geopolitical, economic, social, and environmental. At times like this when the path forward is unclear and the stakes are high, it's wise to tap the counsel of those with a strong command of the lessons of history, and the practical experience of a lifetime in the market trenches. There are few…
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Stock Rally Showing Cracks? | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart
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Are cracks starting to appear in the bull market rally? Portfolio manager Lance Roberts thinks so. His technical dashboard is now showing sell signals as volatility is increasing and the S&P has broken beneath its 20 Daily Moving Average.Next week should be telling. If the S&P rises and closes back above its 20 DMA, that should mean the bull trend …
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