Excess Returns is dedicated to making you a better long-term investor and making complex investing topics understandable. Join Jack Forehand, Justin Carbonneau and Matt Zeigler as they sit down with some of the most interesting names in finance to discuss topics like macroeconomics, value investing, factor investing, and more. Subscribe to learn along with us.
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Two Quants and a Financial Planner bridges the worlds of investing and financial planning to help investors achieve their long-term goals. Join Matt Zeigler, Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau as they cover a wide range of investing and financial planning topics that impact all of us and discuss how we can apply them in the real world to achieve the best outcomes in our financial lives.
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The Guru Investor Podcast offers audio versions of the original articles from Validea's Guru Investor Blog. Our research focuses on what works over the long-term in investing. We cover topics like factor investing, value investing, momentum investing and behavioral finance.
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This is a podcast about finding undervalued stocks, deep value investing, hedge funds, shareholder activism, buyouts, and special situations. We uncover the tactics and strategies for finding good investments, managing risk, dealing with bad luck, and maximizing success.
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1
He Invented the 4% Rule. He Now Believes Retirees Can Withdraw 5% | Bill Bengen Explains Why
41:08
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41:08Bill Bengen, the creator of the 4% rule, joins us to revisit one of the most important ideas in financial planning and retirement research. In this conversation, he explains the origins of the 4% rule, how his thinking has evolved over 30 years, and why he now believes retirees can safely withdraw closer to 4.7% — or even more — under certain condi…
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The Most Powerful Investing Tool You Aren’t Using | Four Lessons from Michael Mauboussin
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47:29In this episode, we kick off our book project, The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You, with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations investin…
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The Most Underutilized Concept in Investing | Four Lessons from Michael Mauboussin
46:52
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46:52In this episode, we kick off our book project, "The Most Important Investing Lesson: What the World’s Best Investors Would Teach You", with a deep dive into the ideas of Michael Mauboussin. We explore his most enduring lessons—concepts that have reshaped how we think about investing, decision making, and life. From base rates to expectations invest…
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1
The Bull Market You Don’t Want to Believe | Rupert Mitchell on China vs. the Mag Seven
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54:55Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Matt Zeigler to talk global markets, China’s resurgence, the AI CapEx boom, and where investors can still find value in a concentrated, overvalued U.S. market. Rupert shares insights from his recent trip to China, his evolving macro framework, and how he’s positioning across equities, credit, and real a…
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1
Bogumil Baranowski on Freedom, Mindfulness, Patience, and the Art of Investing | S07 E39
1:02:10
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1:02:10Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking (Kindle) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at https://acquire…
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1
The Most Extreme Speculation in 40 Years | Richard Bernstein on What It Means for Markets
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59:22In this episode, we are joined by Richard Bernstein, CIO and CEO of Richard Bernstein Advisors. We discuss why this is one of the most speculative market environments he has seen in his 40-year career, why he still believes it may also be one of the best eras for patient long-term investors, and how to think about the real opportunities hiding bene…
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1
99.9% Focus on the Wrong Question | Victor Haghani on Why Static Allocation Fails
1:05:37
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1:05:37In this episode, we sit down with Victor Haghani, founder of Elm Wealth and one of the original partners at LTCM, to explore his journey from running complex hedge fund strategies to adopting a simplified, evidence-based investment approach. We discuss how investors should think about expected returns, portfolio construction, dynamic asset allocati…
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1
The Case for Permanently Higher Market Valuations | Jim Paulsen
1:08:52
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1:08:52Subscribe on Apple Podcsasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-jim-paulsen-show/id1828054999 Subscribe on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/3QaBDVGuBZ3cZfFZ4mqPFc Subscribe on YouTube https://www.youtube.com/excessreturns
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1
The Liquidity Trap Door | Cem Karsan on Why We Are Likely in a Bubble, It Could Get Bigger, And What Pops It
1:04:48
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1:04:48In this episode, Cem Karsan returns to Excess Returns to break down the market through the lens of liquidity, reflexivity, and options-driven market structure. We cover why he believes we are in a bubble but still early in its trajectory, the mechanics behind today’s volatility dynamics, the role of AI spending in sustaining the cycle, and why trad…
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Small and microcap investor Adam Wilk on coal $NRP, furniture $LEFUF and fire systems $APG| S07 E38
1:00:07
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1:00:07Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking (Kindle) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmu…
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1
The $5 Trillion Question | Kai Wu on the Risks of the Mag Seven's Big AI CapEx Bet
1:07:18
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1:07:18Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital joins Excess Returns to discuss his paper Surviving the AI CapEx Boom. In this episode, Kai breaks down the unprecedented level of investment in AI infrastructure, why today’s AI buildout mirrors past technology booms, and what it all means for investors. He explores the parallels between AI and historic bubbles, the imp…
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1
The Inflation Risk Investors Miss | Nancy Davis
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39:22In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Nancy Davis, founder and CIO of Quadratic Capital Management and the mind behind the innovative fixed income ETFs IVOL and BNDD. Nancy shares her insights on how investors are unknowingly short volatility in their portfolios, the role of options and convexity in fixed income, and how her ETFs seek to…
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1
The 40 CAPE Conundrum | Meb Faber on What High Valuations Mean for Markets
1:00:47
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1:00:47In this episode of Excess Returns, Meb Faber joins the show to discuss valuations, diversification, trend following, value investing, and the evolution of markets and investor behavior over the past two decades. Meb shares insights from his upcoming book, lessons from 400 years of market history, and how investors can position themselves for the ne…
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1
Everyone Feared Recession. His Data Said Otherwise | US Bank CIO Eric Freedman on What It Says Now
59:15
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59:15Eric Freedman, Chief Investment Officer at US Bank Wealth, joins Excess Returns to discuss markets, the economy and his investment process. Freedman shares his “control the controllables” investment framework, why he’s maintained a glass-half-full view on the U.S. economy, and how data—not emotion—drives portfolio decisions. The conversation covers…
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1
Most Never Escape Stage 3 | Rick Ferri on the Education of an Index Investor
1:01:59
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1:01:59In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Rick Ferri, founder of Ferri Investment Solutions and host of the Bogleheads on Investing podcast. Rick shares timeless insights on the evolution of an investor’s education, the pitfalls of complexity, and how to build portfolios that are simple, low-cost, and behaviorally sustainable. The discussi…
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1
Investing in a Liquidity Dominated Market | Remi Tetot
1:05:40
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1:05:40In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler talks with macro strategist and author Remi Tetot, known as “The Mad King.” They explore how liquidity, policy, and narratives have reshaped markets over the last decade, why fundamentals have lost their grip, and how investors can adapt to a fractured global cycle. The conversation spans macro themes…
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Winning Long-Term Games and Ergodicity with Author Luca Dellanna | S07 E36
1:00:53
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1:00:53Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking (Kindle) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultip…
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1
The 4% That Drive All Returns | Larry Swedroe on What You're Getting Wrong About the S&P 500
1:05:04
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1:05:04In this episode of Excess Returns, Larry Swedroe returns to discuss the biggest risks and opportunities facing investors today. From tariffs and immigration to AI and private credit, Larry shares evidence-based insights on how to think about markets without relying on forecasts. He explains why diversification is essential, how investors can “sin a…
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1
The Regime Change No One Sees | Adam Parker on Why Valuations Are Lying to You
58:48
58:48
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58:48Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate and Trivector Research, joins Excess Returns to discuss how fundamental, quantitative, and macro perspectives intersect to shape markets today. Parker shares his long-term bullish case for U.S. equities, why traditional valuation signals no longer work, the biggest risks he sees for investors, and how AI, …
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1
The Bear Stearns Moment | Ben Hunt on How Private Credit Unravels
1:02:25
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1:02:25Ben Hunt returns to Excess Returns to break down the hidden risks building inside private credit and the parallels between today’s “alternative asset managers” and the shadow banking system that triggered the 2008 financial crisis. Using the Godfather’s Tessio as a metaphor for betrayal and broken trust, Ben explains how opacity, leverage, and narr…
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1
The Case That We Are in the Early Stages of an AI Bull Market | Gene Munster and Doug Clinton
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55:16In this episode of Excess Returns, Gene Munster and Doug Clinton of Deepwater Asset Management join Justin and Jack to explore the technological, economic, and investing implications of AI. They discuss why they believe we’re still in the early stages of a multi-year bull market driven by AI, how the technology is reshaping jobs and productivity, a…
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1
Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking | Tobias Carlisle
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1:05:10Buy Toby's Bookhttps://amzn.to/478SMBfIn this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Tobias Carlisle, founder and portfolio manager at the Acquirers Fund, and author of the new book “Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett’s Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk Taking.” Tobias joins Matt Zeigler and Bogumil Baranowski to explore how timeless strateg…
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1
SMB acquirer Colin King on Entrepreneurship-through-Acquisition and Search Funds | S07 E36
1:00:53
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1:00:53Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking (Kindle) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.c…
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1
Timeless Lessons from a Trend Following Legend | Jerry Parker
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59:02In this episode of Excess Returns, Jerry Parker joins us for a deep dive into the philosophy and practice of trend following. As one of the original Turtle Traders, Jerry shares lessons from Richard Dennis and Bill Eckhardt, explores how trend following has evolved over the decades, and offers timeless wisdom on markets, psychology, and risk manage…
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1
The 100 Year Thinkers | Chris Mayer and Robert Hagstrom on Finding the Next Great Compounders
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59:13
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59:13Subscribe on Spotify https://open.spotify.com/show/5IsVVM27KWP6SUW6KN2ife Subscribe on Apple Podcasts https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-100-year-thinkers-long-term-compounding-in-a-short-term-world/id1845466003 Subscribe on YouTube https://youtube.com/@excessreturns
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1
Investing in a Debasement Regime | Warren Pies
1:02:25
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1:02:25Warren Pies joins Excess Returns to discuss why he believes we’ve entered a “Debasement Regime,” what that means for investors, and how it differs from the post-GFC deflationary era. He explains the psychology behind this shift, how it’s changing market behavior, and what it means for asset allocation, gold, bonds, small caps, and the Federal Reser…
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1
The Four Pillars of Macro - And What They Say About This Market | Andy Constan
1:07:47
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1:07:47Andy Constan returns to Excess Returns to break down today’s macro environment using his Four-Pillar Framework — growth, inflation, risk premia, and flows. Drawing on lessons from his time at Bridgewater and Brevan Howard, Andy explains how he blends systematic and discretionary approaches to form a clearer picture of markets. He discusses the AI-d…
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1
Excess Returns with Justin Carbonneau, Jack Forehand and Matt Zeigler | S07 E35
1:01:00
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1:01:00Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking (Kindle) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/p…
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1
What a Global Regime Change Means for Investors | Julian Brigden
1:02:56
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1:02:56In this episode of Excess Returns, macro strategist Julian Brigden of MI2 Partners joins the show to break down today’s volatile market landscape. Brigden discusses why he believes we’re in one of the most fertile environments for macro investors in decades, the forces driving dollar weakness, inflation, and capital rotation, and how investors can …
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1
Big Rally. First Sell Signal Since April | Katie Stockton on What the Charts Say Could Come Next
52:06
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52:06Katie Stockton, founder and managing partner at Fairlead Strategies, joins us for her quarterly technical outlook on markets, sectors, and asset classes. In this episode, Katie breaks down what her indicators are showing for equities, discusses the implications of new DeMark signals on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, and explores opportunities across secto…
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1
Electricity Is the New Oil | Rob Thummel on the Energy Opportunity from the AI Boom
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The Expensive Truth About Cheap Investing | Bogumil Baranowski
1:08:35
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1:08:35In this episode of Excess Returns, Matt Zeigler sits down with investor and author Bogumil Baranowski to discuss one of investing’s most important mindset shifts: moving beyond cheap stocks to paying up for quality and exceptional opportunities. Drawing on lessons from Warren Buffett, Ben Graham, and his own journey, Bogumil explains how value inve…
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1
Evidence Based Factor Investing | Matt Zenz
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58:34In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Matt Zenz of Longview Research Partners to explore factor investing, evidence-based strategies, and the challenges and opportunities in today’s markets. Matt shares insights from his engineering background, his time at DFA, and his current work running the Longview Advantage ETF (EBI). We cover th…
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1
A Volatility Masterclass | Timeless Lessons from 30 Year Options Trader Noel Smith
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1:01:39In this episode of Excess Returns, we’re joined by Noel Smith, co-founder and CIO of Convex Asset Management. Noel shares his unique journey from biochemistry and the military to market making, high-frequency trading, and running a volatility-focused hedge fund. We dig deep into volatility, regime models, income strategies, dispersion, tail hedging…
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1
Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking | S07 E34
1:00:37
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1:00:37Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. Soldier of Fortune: Warren Buffett, Sun Tzu and the Ancient Art of Risk-Taking (Kindle) We are live every Tuesday at 1.30pm E / 10.30am P. See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/podca…
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1
A Practical Guide to Market Valuation with Ben Carlson
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55:37In this episode, we sit down with Ben Carlson of Ritholtz Wealth Management and A Wealth of Common Sense to talk about market valuations, the rise of AI, investor behavior, and what history can teach us about investing today. Ben shares his perspective on why valuations are harder to use than ever, how market structure has shifted, and the lessons …
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1
The New Valuation Regime | Jim Paulsen on Confidence, Inflation and the Coming Market Supports
1:08:41
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1:08:41In this episode, we sit down with Jim Paulsen to analyze the latest economic and market data through his lens of decades of market experience. Jim shares insights from his Paulsen Perspectives research, covering the job market, the Fed, inflation, valuations, investor confidence, and what they all mean for the future of the economy and markets. We …
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1
Liquid real assets with Will Thomson of Massif Capital; Natural gas, tungsten and tin | S07 E33
1:01:37
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1:01:37Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. The Investment Philosophers: Financial Lessons from the Great Thinkers by Ethan A. Everett: https://amzn.to/45S4rnm See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast We are live every Tu…
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1
Finding the Next Great Tech Compounders | John Tinsman
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57:18In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with John Tinsman, portfolio manager of the AOT Growth and Innovation ETF (AOTG). John shares how his investing journey began, the lessons he learned from both successes and failures, and how those experiences shaped his current investment philosophy. We dive deep into the concepts of low marginal cost…
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1
Finding Decade-Long Compounders with Joseph Shaposhnik
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1:22:05In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Joseph Shaposhnik, founder of Rainwater Equity and former star portfolio manager at TCW. Joseph shares the investment philosophy that drove his track record of outperformance, why he focuses on recurring revenue businesses, and how he evaluates management quality and capital allocation. We also ex…
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1
The Average Return That Never Comes | Sam Ro on 10 Stock Market Truths Investors Get Wrong
1:26:29
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1:26:29In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Sam Ro to revisit his widely read post “10 Stock Market Truths” and explore how each principle holds up in today’s market. From the long game of investing to short-term risks, valuations, AI, and earnings, Sam shares a timeless framework for navigating markets and separating noise from signal. Top…
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1
Intangible Value Investing Using AI + NLP with Kai Wu of Sparkline Capital | S07 E32
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59:12Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. The Investment Philosophers: Financial Lessons from the Great Thinkers by Ethan A. Everett: https://amzn.to/45S4rnm See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast We are live every Tu…
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201
Exceptionalism Is Ending. New Winners Are Rising | Olga Bitel on the $2 Trillion Opportunity
56:29
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56:29In this episode, William Blair Global Strategist Olga Bitel joins us to unpack her “Perpetual Growth Machine” framework and what it means for investors navigating AI, tariffs, inflation volatility, market concentration, and a shifting global order. We dig into why growth often emerges from solving problems, how monopolies can stunt future innovatio…
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1
Bull Market on Borrowed Time | Ned Davis Chief Strategist Tim Hayes on the Indicators That Matter
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59:49Ned Davis Research’s Chief Global Investment Strategist Tim Hayes joins us to break down NDR’s “360°” weight-of-the-evidence framework—how price, breadth, sentiment, macro and valuation fit together—and what those signals are saying right now. We dig into why he still classifies this as a secular bull market with rising secular-bear risks, how to s…
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1
Unemployed Value Degen Stephen Farrington on small cap stocks $PTLO and $CROX | S07 E31
1:01:37
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1:01:37Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. The Investment Philosophers: Financial Lessons from the Great Thinkers by Ethan A. Everett: https://amzn.to/45S4rnm See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast We are live every Tu…
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201
Brent Donnelly on the Fed, Inflation, and Why 2% No Longer Matters
1:03:31
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1:03:31In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Brent Donnelly, veteran trader, author, and president of Spectra Markets, to dive deep into macro markets, trading philosophy, the role of the Fed, and how AI is changing the way traders operate. Brent shares insights from his decades in FX and macro trading, his flexible approach to positioning, …
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251
Cullen Roche on Inflation, AI and Why the Debt Crisis is Overblown
1:07:12
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1:07:12In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cullen Roche of Discipline Funds for an in-depth conversation on the economy, markets, demographics, AI, and investing frameworks. Cullen cuts through the noise to explain the real forces shaping inflation, interest rates, the role of the Federal Reserve, and why he believes the U.S. faces more dis…
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251
This Hasn't Happened Since 1930 | Eric Pachman on Why the Labor Market is Lying to You
1:04:32
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1:04:32In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with EricPachman of Bancreek Capital to explore the intersection of data, economics, andinvesting. Eric shares his unique journey from the corporate world tohealthcare transparency and ultimately to building a data-driven investmentfirm rooted in information theory. We dive deep into employment trends,…
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1
Investment Philosophers: Financial Lessons from the Great Thinkers with Ethan A. Everett | S07 E30
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59:38Value: After Hours is a podcast about value investing, Fintwit, and all things finance and investment by investors Tobias Carlisle, and Jake Taylor. The Investment Philosophers: Financial Lessons from the Great Thinkers by Ethan A. Everett: https://amzn.to/45S4rnm See our latest episodes at https://acquirersmultiple.com/podcast We are live every Tu…
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251
Cole Smead on Deficits, Inflation, and the Erosion of Earnings Quality in Technology Stocks
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52:27In this episode of Excess Returns, we welcome back Cole Smead of Smead Capital for a wide-ranging conversation on markets, history, and the principles of value investing. Cole shares his perspectives on fiscal largesse, inflation, passive flows, energy markets, U.S. exceptionalism, and the timeless lessons of Buffett and Munger. His insights bridge…
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