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Excess Returns

Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau

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Excess Returns is an investing podcast hosted by Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau, partners at Validea Capital Management. Justin and Jack discuss a wide range of investing topics, including factor investing, value investing, momentum investing and behavioral finance, and talk to interesting guests with the goal of helping those who watch and listen become better long term investors.
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Validea's Guru Investor Podcast

Jack Forehand and Justin Carbonneau

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The Guru Investor Podcast offers audio versions of the original articles from Validea's Guru Investor Blog. Our research focuses on what works over the long-term in investing. We cover topics like factor investing, value investing, momentum investing and behavioral finance.
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Rick Ferri to discuss a wide range of investing topics. We explore the concept of investing with simplicity, the importance of asset allocation, and the role of passive investing in today's market. Rick shares his insights on the stages investors go through to reach the point where simplicity is b…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Simeon Hyman, Global Investment Strategist at ProShares, for a wide-ranging discussion on the current state of the economy, inflation, the Fed, market valuations, and market leadership. Simeon shares his thoughts on the possibility of a soft landing, the impact of AI on productivity and the econom…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Anupam Ghose, co-founder of System2 Advisors and sub-advisor to the Simplify Tara India Opportunities ETF. We discuss the Indian economy, recent political developments, and the country's attractive demographics and growth potential. Anupam shares his approach to stock picking for his concentrated …
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Greg Reid, President of Real Assets at Westwood Group Holdings and lead portfolio manager for their $2 billion energy investment team. We cover the outlook for energy and the major areas of the energy market. We discuss the future of clean energy and why traditional fuels may play a bigger role in it…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we talk Moat investing with Yuri Khodjamirian, CIO of Tema ETFs. We discuss his unique approach to identifying companies with durable competitive advantages and how it differs from traditional Moat investing. We also look at the various types of moats, such as economies of scale, strong network effects, non-replic…
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we sit down with Adam Mead, founder of Mead Capital Management and author of the Complete Financial History of Berkshire Hathaway. We discuss the recent Berkshire Hathaway Annual Meeting, notably missing the presence of the late Charlie Munger. Adam shares insights on Munger's contributions to Berkshire, the compa…
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On April 30th, 2024, Excess Returns and SpotGamma brought together 24 of the smartest minds in the investing world for an all-day interview event to raise money for Susan G. Komen. In this episode we are providing two of our favorite interviews of the day with Corey Hoffstein and Ben Hunt. You can watch the full day of interviews or make a donation…
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On April 30th, 2024, Excess Returns and SpotGamma brought together 24 of the smartest minds in the investing world for an all-day interview event to raise money for Susan G. Komen. In this episode we are providing two of our favorite interviews of the day with Mike Green and Mike Taylor. You can watch the full day of interviews or make a donation b…
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On April 30th, 2024, Excess Returns and SpotGamma brought together 24 of the smartest minds in the investing world for an all-day interview event to raise money for Susan G. Komen. In this episode we are providing two of our favorite interviews of the day with Cem Karsan and Andy Constan. You can watch the full day of interviews or make a donation …
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In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, Jared Dillian, author of the investment newsletter The Daily Dirt Nap and the book "No Worries: How to Live a Stress-Free Financial Life," discusses his personal investing philosophy and portfolio. Dillian advocates for a diversified approach that includes stocks, bonds, cash, gold, and real estate, which …
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In this episode of Excess Returns, we speak with Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager at Muhlenkamp and Company. We discuss Jeff's views on inflation, the likelihood of a recession, and the possibility of another financial crisis. We also take a in depth look at his investment process, which focuses on finding good companies with strong growth, profi…
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In this episode we are joined by Andy Constan, founder of Damped Spring Advisors. We discuss his outlook on the current economic landscape, why he left "higher for longer" island, inflation, the Fed's actions, the bond market, and the influence of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and a lot more. He also shares his views on defining alpha and beta in…
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David Einhorn recently said that he thinks fundamental investing is broken. If he is right, there would certainly be significant long-term implications for value investing. We explored Einhorn's case in several of our episodes and so we thought it was time we explored the other side of the argument and looked at the long-term case for value. And we…
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In this episode, Research Affiliates founder Rob Arnott returns for his third appearance on Excess Returns. We cover a wide range of topics, including inflation, the struggles of value investing, expected future returns, avoiding value traps, AI and a lot more. Stay tuned until the end when we ask Rob what he is most worried and optimistic about wh…
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AI stocks have seen a big run recently. This has led many fundamental-based investors to suggest that things have gotten ahead of themselves. Some have even suggested AI is already in a bubble. But what if we are still in the early innings? What if a bubble is just getting started that could eventually exceed the dotcom bubble? Those are the questi…
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There have been many significant events in the economy and stock market over the past several years. We have had inflation. We have had bank failures. We have had a pandemic. We have even had a potential bubble developing in the AI space. Despite their differences, there is one thing that all of these events have in common - all of them have happen…
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In this episode, we are joined by Mike Taylor, manager of the Simplify Health Care ETF (PINK). Mike is one of the best healthcare investors out there and has managed portfolios for Oppenheimer and major hedge funds like Citadel and Millennium. PINK is the only ETF in existence that donates all its profits to charity with its proceeds benefitting th…
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In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Unlimited Funds founder Bob Elliott. We discuss the unique multi strategy approach he uses to manage his personal portfolio. We cover the weaknesses of the 60-40 portfolio, the 4 buckets Bob uses as the building blocks for his investment strategy, the benefits of simplicity, how Bob views hom…
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David Einhorn said in a recent podcast interview that he feels that the market is broken. He has made significant changes to his investment approach as a result. Much of the basis for his assertion is based on the work of Simplify's Mike Green, who has been warning investors about the dangers of passive investing for many years. In this episode, we…
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With inflation off its highs, but still elevated relative to the Fed's target, there are differing opinions on where we go from here. In this episode, Discipline Funds founder Cullen Roche joins us to help work through it. We discuss the challenge of measuring inflation, the relationship between inflation and the labor market, the potential future …
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In this episode, our most popular guest returns for his third appearance on Excess Returns. We talk with Kai Volatility founder Cem Karsan about a wide range of topics, including the future outlook for inflation, what the Fed is likely to do going forward, structured products, ODTE options, the importance of thinking in probabilities and a lot more…
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Those of us that invest using factors have been taught that there needs to be a reason why they work. We have been taught that for their excess returns to persist in the future, there should be a behavioral or risk-based explanation as to why they exist in the first place. If that assumption is wrong, it would call into question the validity of muc…
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In our latest episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we are joined by Fairlead Strategies founder Katie Stockton. We discuss how Katie thinks about managing her personal portfolio and the investing process. We cover Katie's approach to asset allocation, how she incorporates technical analysis into her strategy, international diversification, the benefi…
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In this episode, we speak with DBi founder Andrew Beer about his approach to managing his personal portfolio. We discuss how Andrew looks at his portfolio in the context of his life goals, his views on stocks and bonds, how he incorporates managed futures into his portfolio, his views on homeownership and charitable giving and a lot more. SEE LATES…
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In this episode, we are privileged to be joined by Chris Davis, Chairman and Portfolio Manager of Davis Advisors. Chris has built an outstanding long-term record as a value investor and also serves on the board of both Berkshire Hathaway and the Coca-Cola Company. We discuss his process for analyzing companies and his owner earnings-based approach …
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Generative AI is probably the most rapidly developing technology we have ever seen. In this episode, we dig deep into it and its potential impact on both our lives and the investing world with ReSolve Asset Management CIO Adam Butler. Adam is one of the smartest people we know and has been dedicating a large amount of his free time to utilizing the…
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We have now conducted over 100 interviews on Excess Returns. At the end of all of them, we have asked the same closing question:Based on your experience in markets and your research, if you could teach one lesson to the average investor, what would it be?In this episode, we bring all of their episodes together into one episode and share the answers…
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This episode is the first part II our Show Us Your Portfolio series. When we originally spoke to Larry Swedroe, we were very intrigued by his use of illiquid alternatives within his portfolio. But we didn’t have time in the original interview to dig into the details of his strategy and the individual components of it. In this interview, we correct …
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In this episode, we are joined by Wes Gray, founder of Alpha Architect and ETF Architect. We cover his biggest lessons from growing the businesses from a startup to over $5 billion in assets. We also discuss the rapid growth of ETFs and ETF Architect's mission to help firms launch them. And we get Wes' take on a variety of issues related to factor …
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In this episode, we talk factor investing with Robeco's Matthias Hanauer. Matthias has written some excellent research papers on a variety of factor investing topics and we dig into the details behind two of our favorites: "Honey I Shrunk the Factor Zoo", and "Resurrecting the Value Premium." We also discuss the state of value investing in general …
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In this episode, we discuss the incredible life and investing career of Charlie Munger with George Washington Professor Lawrence Cunningham. Lawrence in one of the world's leading experts on Berkshire Hathaway and Buffett and Munger and w couldn't think of anyone better to help us pay tribute to Munger. We discuss Munger's life, his investing caree…
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In this episode, we speak with Joel Tillinghast, who will retire as the manager of the Fidelity Low-Priced Stock Fund at the end of this year. Joel managed the fund for over 30 years and built an impressive track record, substantially outperforming the S&P 500 over his tenure. We talk to Joel about the biggest lessons from his career, his approach …
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Most investors reference the returns of popular indexes frequently. But most also do not understand the details of how those indexes are constructed. In this episode, we take a deep dive into index construction with Bloomberg's Athanasios Psarofagis. We start with basic indexes like the S&P 500 and NASDAQ and move to more complex ones like the Russ…
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In this episode we bring back one of our most popular guests. We speak with O'Shaughnessy Ventures founder Jim O'Shaughnessy about his transition from a factor investor to a venture capitalist and what he has learned along the way. We cover the current state of factor investing, Jim's biggest lessons from his career, his approach to venture capital…
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In this episode, we speak with 3Fourteen Research founders Warren Pies and Fernando Vidal. We discuss 3Fourteen’s systematic macro process and how they are using it to analyze the current challenging environment. We also cover a wide range of macro topics, including the importance of the duration of treasury issuance, Fed policy, the changing corre…
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In this episode, we take an in depth look at the credit market with Asterozoa Capital CIO Joe Hegener. We cover the basics of the credit market, the current state of the market, the potential upcoming refinancing wall and the most important fundamental criteria Joe looks at when evaluating companies. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPI…
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When fund managers outperform, they tend to attribute it to their skill. When they underperform, they tend to blame external factors. While that information has been known for some time, it wasn't something that researchers were able to quantify. But the advent of ChatGPT and large language models has changed that. In this episode, we are joined by…
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In this episode, we talk all weather investing with Standpoint's Eric Crittenden. We discuss the case for an all weather strategy relative to a stock and bond portfolio, the challenges of looking different than the market, portfolio construction, international diversification, leverage, the characteristics of a good back test and a lot more. We hop…
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We have launched a new podcast called the OPEX Effect with Spotgamma's Brent Kochuba. The monthly podcast will look at the impact of options on the stock market and how long-term investors can better understand it. We have included the first episode in the Excess Returns feed, but if you would like to receive future episodes, please subscribe using…
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In this episode we take a behind the scenes look at one of our favorite podcasts, Flirting with Models, with its host Corey Hoffstein. We discuss the podcast's origin story, how Corey thinks about selecting guests, what he has learned about interviewing, how he thinks about the podcast as part of his overall business strategy and a lot more. We als…
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In this episode we speak with Chesapeake Capital founder Jerry Parker about how he manages his personal portfolio. We discuss Jerry's trend following based approach and how he uses it to construct a portfolio that balances risk and return. We also discuss the problems with the 60-40 portfolio, the details of building a trend following strategy, cha…
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In this episode, we speak with FPA Crescent Manager Steve Romick. Steve has built an exceptional long-term record using an approach that combines value investing with protection of capital and drawdown management. We discuss the biggest lessons he has learned in his decades of managing money, get his take on the current state of value investing and…
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It has been a painful last decade for value investors. In this episode, our good friend Tobias Carlisle returns to commiserate about the struggles of value and also to talk about the future opportunity it may create. We discuss value spreads, the importance of enduring pain, the comparison with 2000 and a lot more. We also get an update on Toby's n…
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In this episode, we take a deep div into quantitative investing with Michael Robbins, author of the new book "Quantitative Asset Management: Factor Investing and Machine Learning for Institutional Investing." We discuss data science and machine learning, factor investing, risk management, the qualities of a good back test and a lot more. We hope yo…
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In this episode, we talk trend following and conservative investing with Sierra Mutual Funds CIO James St. Aubin. We talk about their unique banded moving average approach to trend following and how they utilize it to manage risk in client portfolios. We also discuss the importance of educating investors, what makes a good investment manager, quant…
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In this episode of Show Us Your Portfolio, we speak with Damped Spring Advisors founder Andy Constan. Andy has spent his career working at some of the most successful firms in the asset management industry, including Bridgewater and Brevan Howard and he explains how the lessons he has learned throughout his career led to how he constructs his portf…
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In this episode, our good friend Cullen Roche returns to the podcast for his 5th appearance. But this time, instead of talking about the macroeconomy as we have in his previous appearances, we discuss how he manages his personal portfolio. We talk about Cullen's unique approach of matching the duration of the asset classes he invests in with his pe…
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In this episode, we speak with Comgest portfolio manager Alistair Wittet We discuss his approach for building a focused portfolio of high-quality European growth companies and the most important criteria he looks at. We also dig into the characteristics that define great long-term brands, the current economic situation in Europe, how the European g…
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International stocks, and particularly emerging market stocks, have struggled relative to US stocks for a long time. That has led some to suggest that international diversification no longer makes sense for investors. But valuations in the space and lessons from history would suggest otherwise.In this episode we discuss the issue with AQR's Dan Vil…
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In this episode, we speak with Essentia Analytics founder Clare Flynn Levy. Essentia has developed software to evaluate investment managers and help them improve as investors. We discuss what Clare has learned through that process and the lessons all of us can take from it. We hope you enjoy the discussion. SEE LATEST EPISODES ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠…
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