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A Long Time In Finance

Jonathan Ford and Neil Collins

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The long view of finance, markets and money as seen by two veteran City editors, Neil Collins and Jonathan Ford. Sponsored by Briefcase.News Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
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That's how the public increasingly sees today's managerial elite. Bosses enjoy vast rewards without seeming to be accountable for their decisions - at least the ones that go wrong. The economist (and old friend of Altif) Dan Davies has an answer: they've created what he calls an "unaccountability sink" which is delivering terrible business outcomes…
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One of Britain's best known bond fund managers, and also founder of the "Bond Vigilante" blog, Jim Leaviss is leaving the City after 32 years to train as an art historian. Neil and Jonathan caught up with him to look back on his City career, the huge bull market in bonds of recent decades, and the threats that lie in store from international instab…
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When banks were found to have manipulated the Libor rate during the financial crisis, they paid a whopping $8bn in fines but only a few junior traders went to prison. In a joint episode with Law & Disorder podcast, we look at the recently appealed cases of Tom Hayes and Carlo Palumbo, and ask whether justice has been served. Presented by Jonathan F…
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One of the more striking crime statistics is that burglary is down 90% in England and Wales since the 1990s. That doesn't reflect more upright behaviour. Nope, it's just that villains are increasingly moving their operations online. We talk to author Geoff White about how Silicon Valley is helping the bad guys go digital by making it easier for the…
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How did housing in Britain go from somewhere to live to being everyone's favourite financial asset? In the second of our two part series, we look at housing policy since 1970; and ask whether there has ever been a coherent approach. Also is there a natural level of home ownership and should we be encouraging everyone to buy? With Cambridge Universi…
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How did housing in Britain go from somewhere to live to everyone's favourite financial asset? In the first of a two part series, we look at the mortgage market since 1970; and ask whether the high prices and low supply we endure today are a financial phenomenon. With former building societies supremo Mark Boleat. Presented by Jonathan Ford and Neil…
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When Jeff Bezos founded Amazon in 1994, it was an online bookshop. Now its tentacles are everywhere: it's a marketplace for third party goods from around the world, a huge cloud computing business and America's largest parcel delivery group. But is this a good thing or a bad one? We talk to Dana Mattioli of the Wall Street Journal about whether Ama…
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The economist Michael Jensen, who died this month, did as much as any single thinker to shape modern financial capitalism. To his detractors, he was the High Priest of Greed who justified stratospheric CEO pay and predatory private equity. His admirers believe he revived Anglo Saxon capitalism. We discuss his ideas and legacy with the independent r…
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A natural monopoly delivering an essential service, Thames Water was privatised in 1989 with no debt. Now it's on its knees, crushed by more than £15bn of borrowings. Neil and Jonathan talk to Feargal Sharkey about what this says about Mrs Thatcher's most controversial privatisation, whether incentive regulation works, and whether we should just sc…
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GEC was a British manufacturing titan; a cash-rich producer of everything from washing machines to railway trains. Then in a few years, it rebranded and restructured, shedding most of the old industrial bits to focus on telecoms. The result? By 2005, shiny new Marconi was no more. In the second of our Fallen Angel series, we talk to industrial hist…
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For decades ICI was Britain's largest manufacturing company - a giant fixed point around which the rest of industry orbited. Then, in little more than a decade, it split itself up, sold many of its traditional businesses, and ran up big debts buying fancy but not very profitable fragrance companies. In 2006, the end came when it sold itself to a Du…
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Remember Pets.com? Or Ask Jeeves? The dot com bubble of 25 years ago might have been a seismic event in markets. But was it just a collective moment of madness, or a deeper transformational moment? Or both? As AI stocks shoot towards the stratosphere, we talk to internet historian Brian McCullough, host of the Techmeme Ride Home podcast, about what…
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One of Britain's better-known economic forecasters, Roger Bootle, set up his consultancy Capital Economics 25 years ago. He made his name predicting the "death of inflation" on which he wrote an influential book in the 1990s. We discuss the importance of economic history, favourite writers, monetarism, bright spots in the world economy, and Britain…
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In the second of our series on Privatisation and Popular Capitalism, we look at the biggest and riskiest privatisation of all - the 1987 sale of the UK's 31% stake in BP. How the Chancellor Nigel Lawson gambled that the markets were good for a quick £7bn. Prepare for the world's shortest pricing meeting, diplomatic rows with Kuwaitis and lots of lo…
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Along with the sale of council houses, privatisation was a signature theme of Mrs Thatcher's government. Its aim was not just more efficient businesses, but a "share owning democracy" that would purge Britain of the "corrosive effect of socialism". With its "Tell Sid" campaign, British Gas was the high water mark of privatisation. Neil and Jonathan…
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What if our understanding of capitalism and climate is back to front? What if the problem is not that transitioning to green energy is too expensive, but that saving the planet is not sufficiently profitable. This is the conundrum at the heart of economist Brett Christophers' provocative new book. Neil and Jonathan joined him to discuss why lower w…
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Unipart, once an unloved division of British Leyland, has grown steadily since its buyout 37 years ago, eschewing the stock market and building a "Mittelstand" like relationship with employees, customers and suppliers. Neil and Jonathan talk to John Neill, its long standing boss, about car parts, purpose versus City short-termism and why more compa…
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To some it might seem like the plot of a Jeffrey Archer novel: identical twins born to hardship who graft their way up together and ultimately get to own the Ritz Hotel, the Daily Telegraph and a socking great castle in the Channel Islands. But the story of Frederick and David Barclay is much stranger than that. With the Barclays back in the news a…
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Bill Gross was the "Master of the Universe" who got the world's attention when he declared in 2010 that UK government debt was sitting "on a bed of nitroglycerine". The man who built the modern bond markets, Gross seemed to have it all. But then he blew up his career just a few short years later with some very strange behaviour. We talk to Mary Chi…
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What links the iconic Sydney Opera House, Monsters Inc and the mess that is HS2? Well, they involve all giant projects and most conform to the "iron law" that schemes costing $1bn or more always end up over time and budget. According to the data, a piddling 0.5% get delivered on time, for the right price, and produce the forecast benefits. So with …
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At the recent COP conference, the UK, along with 21 other countries, promised to triple nuclear capacity by 2050. But what does that mean, and how can these plants be built without the delays and cost overruns that marked nuclear projects in the 1970s and 1980s - the last time Britain had a nuclear programme? Neil and Jonathan talk to Tim Stone, he…
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Crypto's demise seems to have been exaggerated, a bit like Mark Twain's. After the collapse of FTX, multiple coin failures and the arrest of various coinigarchs at airports, Neil and Jonathan talk to bitcoin expert Matthew Pines about the digital, bankless currencies strange ability to shrug off these disasters and what the future may hodl. Present…
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It's got a long history going back to Robert Maxwell and Sir James Goldsmith's long-running battle to bankrupt Private Eye, but in recent years so-called "lawfare" has become a veritable industry. We talk to David Hooper, solicitor and author of Buying Silence about the ways in which companies have used libel and privacy laws to squash their critic…
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No, it's not a novel by GK Chesterton; it's the takeover of the world's investment markets by a sinister posse of giant passive fund managers and private equity firms. These now possess the sort of political and economic power that would have made John Rockefeller green with envy. We talk to John Coates, professor at Harvard Law School and author o…
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Carbon offsets seemed a neat idea: pay poor people in the Global South not to cut down trees, and then use that "avoided" carbon to sell credits to polluters in developed countries. Bish bosh, your Delta Airlines flight or VW SUV is carbon neutral. What could possibly go wrong? Neil and Jonathan pick through the rubble of the South Pole scandal wit…
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In 1987, the emerging private equity industry successfully lobbied the government to slip them a tax break. It allows private equiteers to take huge bonuses from the appreciation of client funds they invest in buyouts (a wedge called "carried interest"), and pay a preferentially low rate of tax on these earnings. Now HMRC may be thinking again. We …
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It's more than a decade since an American investor described the UK's gilts market as resting "on a bed of nitroglycerine". But with government bonds facing a plethora of troubles right now, from surging issuance driven both by current deficits and monetary policy, to persistent inflation, it's time to turn again to UK investor and self styled "bon…
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The recently released film, Dumb Money, recounts the tumultuous events of 2021 when a group of internet-enabled sans culottes took on Wall Street's finest in a battle over the future of Gamestop, an obscure electronic games retailer. But was it a financial revolution or an amusing (if tech enabled) throwback to the great stock market corners of the…
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Liz Truss is the Lady Jane Grey of British politics, lasting just 49 days as PM before swirling economic chaos swept her from office. But a year on, has Britain dusted itself off and rebuilt - or are we still picking through the ruins? Neil and Jonathan talk to economic historian Duncan Weldon about Truss's economic and political legacy, Sunak's pr…
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The government is embroiled in a row about environmental protection. Should it apply pollution rules inherited from the EU in the way its own environmental advisers interpret them, or should it change the rules to help housebuilders construct more homes? Neil and Jonathan discuss the trade-offs with Robert Colvile, a self confessed housing nut who …
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In the concluding episode of our two part series, Jonathan and Neil look back on the dramatic events of March in the company of Josef Ackermann, who ran the Swiss bank in the 1990s, financial historian Philip Augar and banking analyst Frances Coppola. They consider the macro background to the bank's collapse, and ask whether things could have turne…
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In March 2023 the unthinkable happened: Credit Suisse, that giant of Swiss banking, collapsed. Like the proverbial cat, it had run through its nine lives. From the Chiasso saga to unprecedented corporate fines, via troubled times on Wall Street, Credit Suisse had always lived dangerously. And finally, in 2023, the financial winds caught up with the…
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With net zero targets in mind, countries like the UK have ambitious targets for renewable energy. But do these make any sense? None at all, according to Doomberg, the US energy analyst. In conversation with Neil and Jonathan, he explains why he's deeply bearish about wind power, why renewables make no sense at all in Western Europe, and how there's…
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The car in front? These days it's likely to be a Tesla - or Chinese. Britain's car industry built just 775,000 motors last year, the lowest figure since 1956. Dwindling investment means we increasingly lack the wherewithal to take part in the unfolding electric revolution. Amid a picture of unremitting gloom, Neil and Jonathan talk to Peter Wells, …
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Since 2019, Britain has put itself under a legal obligation to decarbonise its economy by 2050. But do people have any idea what that means, how practical it is and how much it might cost? To get an idea, Neil and Jonathan talked to Richard Halsey, innovation director at the Energy Supply Catapult about how the country is faring on its great decarb…
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Jeremy Hunt says that by taking more risk, UK pension funds can make their members £1,000 a year better off. Sounds interesting, but is it really plausible? And should the government even try to interfere in pension markets? Neil and Jonathan talk to pensions expert John Ralfe about what he really said and didn't say, whether the proposals will mak…
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"You could be an H20 Owner." That was the slogan when the water companies were sold off in 1989. But while we glugged the share sale down, the public didn't stay owners for long, and most of the companies were later flushed into the hands of international private equity firms. All we own now is the financial and ecological mess they left behind - o…
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Energy policy has been one of Britain's great political failures over the past two decades. World leaders in climate pledges, we've failed to create the means to deliver them. And we barely build any green kit. This week's guest, energy expert Nick Butler has an idea for a fresh start. Create a state owned company to drive and fund investments in e…
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With mortgage rates rising ever higher, it's becoming clear the UK is facing a serious housing correction. But how bad will it be, and on whom will the blow fall hardest? Neil and Jonathan talk to Neal Hudson, housing expert at BuiltSpace, about past crises in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s, how this one might compare, and what we might do to soften th…
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Vertical farming has been hailed as the future of agriculture. More sustainable, needing fewer resources such as land and labour, and the capacity to grow crops all year round. So how far can it go and why have so many recently built vertical farms got into financial difficulty? Neil and Jonathan talk to Marcus Whately, chief executive of Grow Up F…
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The hawks call it decoupling; the more dovish derisking. But it all means the same thing: imposing trade barriers between China and the West. Neil and Jonathan talk to China expert George Magnus about China's 2001 WTO accession, why the West's gamble on trade and democratisation failed, and also whether you can unscramble the trade relationship. Pr…
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After several snoozeworthy decades in which its stock market and economy went nowhere, Japanese shares are testing highs they haven't seen since 1990, just as the country's great asset bubble was declining. There have been plenty of false dawns in the past, but this time, as Japan expert and value investor Alex Kinmont told Neil and Jonathan, it re…
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With the outlook for shares cloudier than at any time since the 1970s, it is hard to know whether to be greedy or fearful. In search of enlightenment on this point, Neil and Jonathan talk to veteran investor and author Richard Oldfield about all things investment. These include active fund managers, how to judge them and whether they are worth the …
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England's water utilities have been under fire for leaks and discharging sewage into the rivers, something we are told they don't have the cash for. So why are they paying out huge dividends, which almost tripled last year to £1.4bn? Neil and Jonathan are joined by David Hall, visiting professor at Greenwich university, to peer into the murky world…
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The famous football club's owners, the Glazers, have put it up for sale for $7bn - or 10 times revenues. But instead of laughing out loud, several buyers are circling. With valuations at fever pitch. Neil (a Tranmere Rovers obsessive) and Jonathan talk to Kieran Maguire, football finance academic, about whether England's Premier League can sustain …
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There is a bit of a general spoiler alert this week as Neil and Jonathan talk to Louis Ashworth, FT Alphaville's resident Succession expert about the TV melodrama. Does the financial side of the plotline make any sense? Should the family sell Waystar Royco to GoJo? How big are the children's stakes and what are they actually worth? Is Kendall a bil…
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The country which first achieved nuclear fission has just become the third (behind Italy and Lithuania) to phase out its entire nuclear fleet. An odd time to do it, when Europe has just cut off Russian gas and the main alternative is to burn more coal. But that's the Green Party for you. Neil and Jonathan discuss the politics of Germany's contentio…
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After four banks collapsed in March, including the Swiss giant Credit Suisse, is it time to start worrying about a new banking crisis, just 14 years after the last one? Neil and Jonathan talk to financial historian Edward Chancellor about the challenges posed to the financial system by interest rates shooting up after a long period of historic lows…
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In his youth, he commanded a motor torpedo boat called HMS Gay Charger, and in later life became a Mousquetaire d'Armagnac. In between, Nigel Lawson was Neil's second favourite Chancellor of the Exchequer since the Second World War. We discuss the life and achievements of Margaret Thatcher's most intellectually confident Number 11 neighbour, their …
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Who knew that Samuel Taylor Coleridge, opium-nibbling author of Kubla Khan, also had views on the business cycle and foreshadowed Keynes' ideas by a century? Or that Walter Scott extolled the virtues of paper currency so powerfully that he saved the Scottish banknote, which bears his image in gratitude to this very day? Neil and Jonathan talk to Jo…
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