The Rate Guy Podcast is hosted by JP Conklin of Pensford. It's an irreverent insight into interest rates and current markets and how they impact the Commercial Real Estate and Multifamily industries.
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Football season is back, and so is JP's trash talk! In this episode of The Rate Guy, we touch on some friendly (or not-so-friendly) college football banter and dive into the real game: Fed policy moves. With Powell signaling a rate cut next month and the labor market's true strength under scrutiny, we break down what this means for the economy. We'…
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I'm Getting to Jackson Hole One Way or Another!
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss this week's Jackson Hole meeting where the theme is “Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission of Monetary Policy.” We talk about some of the things they might touch on and how the market may react. We also discuss the consumer spending situation; why it's not as rosy as the number suggests and why th…
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On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we get a little creative and compare Olympic athletes to players in the Interest Rate game. On the heels of a couple data heavy weeks, we hope this is a breathe of fresh air for you all. And you may be asking, there's a connection between the Australian "break dancer" and interest rates!? Yep, there sure is!…
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On A Long Enough Timeline, JP Is Always Right
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32:53
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In this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast, we dive into the concept of the "JP Rule"—the idea that, given enough time, JP is always right—and compare it to the established Sahm and Taylor economic rules. We also cover one of the most significant economic weeks in recent memory, possibly since the Fed began hiking rates. There’s a lot to discuss this …
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what to expect at this week's upcoming Fed meeting, jobs report and what impact those may have on rates and cap pricing. JP also gives an update on the JMo wager!By JP Conklin
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On this week's episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting and its potential impact on interest rates. We'll cover market updates, dive into recent Fed speeches and we'll continue our Cap conversation exploring cap pricing scenarios and the effects of market volatility. The good article referenced was by WSJ journalist Greg Ip lin…
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into last week's CPI report, how it may impact rate trajectory, how cap prices may behave in a falling rate environment and what strategies you should be considering for your upcoming caps.By JP Conklin
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Jobs Market Hotter Than Orlando Pavement in July
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the "HOT" jobs data, the upcoming inflation data, Powell's testimony and the liklihood of Fed cuts this year. As always you can read the Pensford Newsletter here.By JP Conklin
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The Data Can Stay Irrational Longer Than You Can Stay Solvent
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27:42
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On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we dig a little deeper into the recent Jobs Report and discuss the underlying data that should be getting attention, CPI, the ECB cutting and how all of that may affect this week's Fed meeting.By JP Conklin
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we’re breaking down the Core PCE numbers and JMo's wager tracker—are we heading to the Caribbean or not? Plus, we explore why the Fed might be shifting its focus from inflation to jobs, the implications of recent job reports, and what Friday's labor data could mean for future rate cuts. Join us as we take a closer lo…
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss all things inflation, the cracks that Jay$ (Jerome Powell) may be paying closing attention to and the probability of rate cuts and why JP thinks that could be wrong. If you haven't already, subscribe to the Pensford Newsletter to see visuals that we reference in the podcast, as well as any breaking news we…
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The Last Mile - Jay$'s Inflation Rap Battle
29:27
29:27
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the different AI models, their strengths/weaknesses and origins that you might not know. We then dive into interest rate talk, the small exhale the market experienced last week, odds of a rate cut this year, info around the bid to cover ratio (linked article referenced) and we cap it off with an AI reco…
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the most overlooked takeaways from the Fed meeting, QT tapering, how the 10T is affected and what the jobs report is telling us. To check out the graphs referenced read the Pensford Newsletter here.By JP Conklin
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Happy 15 years to Pensford! On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a walk down memory lane with JP. Hearing about the times he thought Pensford was going under, where the name comes from, our competitors and most importantly our team. If you want to skip the story and get straight to the FOMC meeting, inflation and jobs talk, fast forward to the 3…
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why we should not be freaking out over inflation, why JP still things the Fed is cutting, how transportation costs have affected Supercore and which direction wage growth is trending. Check out the Pensford Newsletter for graphs/links referenced. And for those interested in checking out JP's Eagles Spite S…
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we dive into the latest economic data releases and what they reveal about the current state of inflation and monetary policy. We'll break down the recent CPI and PPI figures, discuss what move Powell may regret, what the Fed might do from here, and analyze the potential impact. For those that want to check out more …
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we tackle the unexpected fallout from last week's April Fools' joke podcast/newsletter that sent rates soaring. IT WAS A JOKE, PEOPLE! We'll dissect recent labor market reports, if Bloomberg Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong could be right about the high end of unemployment, the impact of fiscal stimulus, and what the …
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP recognizes the errors of his ways and faces all of the things he's been looking at totally wrong. Want to read as well? Check out his Pensford Newsletter.By JP Conklin
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we're tackling the latest on the Fed, the surprising bank funding stats, and what it all means for the economy. We’ll break down this week’s keyand what they signal for future rate cuts. Plus, we’re setting the scene for our big quarterly webinar and the Fed meeting. Tune in for a clear-ish take on where we’re at an…
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For this nerdy episode of The Rate Guy podcast you can thank Nathan from Dallas for inspiring JP to fall down a jobs rabbit hole! We'll talk BLS, BEA, birth/death adjustment and dissect the overstated strength of the current job market challenging the "red hot" labor market narrative. We will also touch on what you may be overlooking when it comes …
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On this episode of the Rate Guy we discuss the crazy email sent out to super users by the BLS, what we saw from the 10T last week and of course, much to J Mo's joy, inflation.By JP Conklin
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On this episode of The Rate Guy you'll get some knowledge dropped on you about leap year date quirk and how it creates data challenges, a fun fact about Warren Buffet, and what everyone is keeping their eye on...inflation. We discuss how January data is always hot and suggest pumping the breaks on the sky is falling outlook until we see more data. …
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the inflation report from last week and what it means for Fed monetary policy and if inflation is accelerating. We also touch on how the latest data influenced the interest rate universe.By JP Conklin
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the Fed's "Lower But Slower" strategy amid declining inflation and mixed signals from Fed officials on rate cuts. We discuss the drop in Core PCE inflation to 2.9% and its impact on anticipated rate reductions, contrasting with market predictions. Tune in as we navigate the cautious monetary policy landsc…
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP shares an experience from his first day on the Wachovia trading floor, highlighting the stress of betting $5 when you have $2 in your pocket. We discuss the impact of large Treasury issuances and the Fed's balance sheet reduction, the Treasury's new buyback program, and the effects of the Term Funding Program's c…
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Have The Banks Brushed Their Teeth This Morning?
22:27
22:27
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw an interesting parallel between the challenges of parenting and the Federal Reserve's decision to end the Bank Term Funding Program. We analyze the latest inflation data, discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and the rationale behind what the Fed might do next.…
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Treasurys Don't Always Fall When The Fed Cuts
18:51
18:51
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP stays on brand taking jabs at the NFL's latest dramas, with a special nod to the Cowboys' decisions that bring him so much joy. We analyze the latest on treasury rates, Fed-speak, and what consumer sentiment reports reveal about inflation expectations. We also take a look at potential inflation scenarios and what…
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The Fed Could Cut in March, But Why Would They
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17:58
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On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the odds of the Fed cutting in March, take a closer look at the 10 Year Treasury's ups and downs, and break down how the Bank Term Funding Program might play out.By JP Conklin
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Happy 2024! On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about last week's jobs reports and the impact that is going to have on Fed policy this year, a few fun facts around jobs reports, like how many we need to add each month to keep pace with population growth and we explain a possible reason for the consistent monthly revisions that we're seeing.…
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP lists his lead pipe locks for 2024...spoiler alert, there's no such thing as a soft landing and we will have a recession. We also take a look back at his lead pipe lock predictions for 2023 and grade him on how those panned out.By JP Conklin
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk inflation, unemployment, the 10 Year Treasury and if the Fed has already overdone it. This Thursday we have our Q4 Interest Rate Webinar. Register Here -> https://www.pensford.com/q4-pensford-webinar-2023 Graph referencedBy JP Conklin
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Inflation Data Should Confirm The Fed Is Done
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16:26
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss some alarming data about consumer behavior, inflation expectations, what to look for in this week's inflation data and possible good news for interest rate caps.By JP Conklin
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This episode of The Rate Guy Podcast is titled, "No, China is Not Dumping Treasurys". We had a better title, but Harbaugh stole it. (You know JP can't resist making some digs) This week we discuss the latest headlines about China selling Treasurys. The reasons they would sell, why they wouldn't sell and we get an expert's take on what the global da…
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What the 2024 Rate Cutting Cycle Might Look Like
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34:29
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On this week's Rate Guy podcast, we're zoning in on one of the biggest questions we got from ULI: what will rate cuts look like in 2024. We'll unpack the three potential paths the Fed might take and the reasoning behind each. Plus, we're taking a closer look at that less-than-stellar jobs report to see what it really means. And expect a common thre…
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On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about GOATs, in sports, in comedy...in interest rates. We also analyze economic conditions and determine which inflation cycle fromt the past are we repeating and why, this week's Fed meeting, how governtment spending is impacting treasury yields, and the biggest contributing factors to a 5% 10Y Treas…
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On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast, we dive into the "gangbuster" jobs report and what details to pay attention to in this week's inflation data. Curious about the Fed's game plan and how it might impact 2024 rates? We've got some theories...but definitely not the conspiracy kind! Numbers reference if the podcast. For more info check out the P…
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On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we dive into big headlines. The 10 Year Treasury's flirting with 5%, GDP, Inflation, Oil, a looming recession and how that won't be enough for the Fed to start cutting...especially when they're working off stale a$$ data. Politics also got spicy with a near shutdown, but with it staying open we'll get the Jobs…
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, Inflation trends, the influence of foreign central banks on the 10 Year Treasury and JP creates the seamingly impossible parallel between economic conditions and prime time tv. We have our quarterly webinar this Thursday! Register here : https://www.pensford.com/q3-pensford-webina…
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Inflation Falling Like the Bengals Super Bowl Odds
20:53
20:53
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the unexpected outcome of the Texas vs. Bama game and take a look at the job market nuances and how they are coming up with the data that The Fed is so dependent on. We also talk about this week's anticipated inflation data and its implications.By JP Conklin
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On this Labor Day episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about what else...labor! The JOLTs hitting its lowest since April '21, why the Fed's still discussing rate hikes with all of the data pointing the opposite direction and JP's lead pipe lock NFL narrative predictions.By JP Conklin
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On this week's Rate Guy Podcast explore the surprising link between Penn State's 1994-95 football season and today's inflation challenges. We break down Dr. Brent Ambrose's Penn State Alternative Inflation Index and what it reveals about inflation during economic peaks and troughs. Hang with us through a unique blend of football memories and econom…
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The Tightening Will Continue Until Morale Improves!
21:50
21:50
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On this episode of The Rate Guys Podcast we dissect San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's views on inflation and rate hikes. With modest Core CPI increases, is the Fed truly data-driven? Delve into inflation dynamics, housing costs, and global economic markers, like China's CPI. We explore market forecasts and debate the Fed's next steps: will th…
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CPI Will Go Up This Week - Flippa Inte Ut
23:27
23:27
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the bias for higher rates, last week's labor report, the lesser talked about underemployment rate, the outlook for this week's inflation data and a little Swedish lesson delivered beautifully by JP.By JP Conklin
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If You Can Dodge A Wrench You Can Dodge A Rate Question
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13:20
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On this special episode of The Rate Guy we discuss today's Fed meeting and translate what we think J Powell was trying to communicate in the Q&A.By JP Conklin
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On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss this week's Fed meeting, what we expect for the rest of this year and if we can achieve a soft landing. For graphs referenced, click here - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/to-heck-with-your-soft-landingBy JP Conklin
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we analyze last week's inflation data, what that means for the upcoming FOMC meeting and the confusion over why no one is talking about about FHLB advances. Link to the Newsletter to view graphs referenced - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/progress-not-perfection What are FHLB advances? https://www.fhlbof.com…
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I'm 93% Sure The Fed Shouldn't Hike Again
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18:47
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why in the world rates would pop up in the face of a down jobs report and why the Market thinks there is nearly 100% chance that the Fed hikes at the next meeting...and why we think that's bonkers!By JP Conklin
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On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss Powell's Humphrey Hawkins testimony in front of Congress this week, how his hawkish comments effected the Market and what he continues to hold up as Exhibit A for why more hiking may be necessary. For tables/graphs referenced click here.By JP Conklin
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss CPI, the Fed meeting and how the Market has been reacting the last month to the persception that maybe the Fed won't be cutting interest rates this year. To register for our Q2 webinar this Thursday (6/15 @ 1pm est) click here--> https://www.pensford.com/q2-pensford-webinar-2023 Hope to see you there!…
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A Strong Job Report Doesn't Mean The Fed Is Hiking
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19:21
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On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into the paradox of the strong job report and the Fed's reluctance to hike rates! Despite positive job growth, why is the rate hike's likelihood still in question? We'll also uncover the complexities of wage inflation, treasury issuance, liquidity issues from the recent debt ceiling debate, and the challenges…
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