On this episode of The Rate Guy we break down the different AI models, their strengths/weaknesses and origins that you might not know. We then dive into interest rate talk, the small exhale the market experienced last week, odds of a rate cut this year, info around the bid to cover ratio (linked article referenced) and we cap it off with an AI reco…

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the most overlooked takeaways from the Fed meeting, QT tapering, how the 10T is affected and what the jobs report is telling us. To check out the graphs referenced read the Pensford Newsletter here.By JP Conklin

Happy 15 years to Pensford! On this episode of The Rate Guy we take a walk down memory lane with JP. Hearing about the times he thought Pensford was going under, where the name comes from, our competitors and most importantly our team. If you want to skip the story and get straight to the FOMC meeting, inflation and jobs talk, fast forward to the 3…

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why we should not be freaking out over inflation, why JP still things the Fed is cutting, how transportation costs have affected Supercore and which direction wage growth is trending. Check out the Pensford Newsletter for graphs/links referenced. And for those interested in checking out JP's Eagles Spite S…

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we dive into the latest economic data releases and what they reveal about the current state of inflation and monetary policy. We'll break down the recent CPI and PPI figures, discuss what move Powell may regret, what the Fed might do from here, and analyze the potential impact. For those that want to check out more …

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we tackle the unexpected fallout from last week's April Fools' joke podcast/newsletter that sent rates soaring. IT WAS A JOKE, PEOPLE! We'll dissect recent labor market reports, if Bloomberg Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong could be right about the high end of unemployment, the impact of fiscal stimulus, and what the …

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP recognizes the errors of his ways and faces all of the things he's been looking at totally wrong. Want to read as well? Check out his Pensford Newsletter.By JP Conklin

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we're tackling the latest on the Fed, the surprising bank funding stats, and what it all means for the economy. We’ll break down this week’s keyand what they signal for future rate cuts. Plus, we’re setting the scene for our big quarterly webinar and the Fed meeting. Tune in for a clear-ish take on where we’re at an…

For this nerdy episode of The Rate Guy podcast you can thank Nathan from Dallas for inspiring JP to fall down a jobs rabbit hole! We'll talk BLS, BEA, birth/death adjustment and dissect the overstated strength of the current job market challenging the "red hot" labor market narrative. We will also touch on what you may be overlooking when it comes …

On this episode of the Rate Guy we discuss the crazy email sent out to super users by the BLS, what we saw from the 10T last week and of course, much to J Mo's joy, inflation.By JP Conklin

On this episode of The Rate Guy you'll get some knowledge dropped on you about leap year date quirk and how it creates data challenges, a fun fact about Warren Buffet, and what everyone is keeping their eye on...inflation. We discuss how January data is always hot and suggest pumping the breaks on the sky is falling outlook until we see more data. …

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the inflation report from last week and what it means for Fed monetary policy and if inflation is accelerating. We also touch on how the latest data influenced the interest rate universe.By JP Conklin

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we explore the Fed's "Lower But Slower" strategy amid declining inflation and mixed signals from Fed officials on rate cuts. We discuss the drop in Core PCE inflation to 2.9% and its impact on anticipated rate reductions, contrasting with market predictions. Tune in as we navigate the cautious monetary policy landsc…

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP shares an experience from his first day on the Wachovia trading floor, highlighting the stress of betting $5 when you have $2 in your pocket. We discuss the impact of large Treasury issuances and the Fed's balance sheet reduction, the Treasury's new buyback program, and the effects of the Term Funding Program's c…

On this episode of The Rate Guy we draw an interesting parallel between the challenges of parenting and the Federal Reserve's decision to end the Bank Term Funding Program. We analyze the latest inflation data, discuss what to expect at this week's FOMC meeting and the rationale behind what the Fed might do next.…

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP stays on brand taking jabs at the NFL's latest dramas, with a special nod to the Cowboys' decisions that bring him so much joy. We analyze the latest on treasury rates, Fed-speak, and what consumer sentiment reports reveal about inflation expectations. We also take a look at potential inflation scenarios and what…

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the odds of the Fed cutting in March, take a closer look at the 10 Year Treasury's ups and downs, and break down how the Bank Term Funding Program might play out.By JP Conklin

Happy 2024! On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk about last week's jobs reports and the impact that is going to have on Fed policy this year, a few fun facts around jobs reports, like how many we need to add each month to keep pace with population growth and we explain a possible reason for the consistent monthly revisions that we're seeing.…

On this episode of The Rate Guy, JP lists his lead pipe locks for 2024...spoiler alert, there's no such thing as a soft landing and we will have a recession. We also take a look back at his lead pipe lock predictions for 2023 and grade him on how those panned out.By JP Conklin

On this episode of The Rate Guy we talk inflation, unemployment, the 10 Year Treasury and if the Fed has already overdone it. This Thursday we have our Q4 Interest Rate Webinar. Register Here -> https://www.pensford.com/q4-pensford-webinar-2023 Graph referencedBy JP Conklin

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss some alarming data about consumer behavior, inflation expectations, what to look for in this week's inflation data and possible good news for interest rate caps.By JP Conklin

This episode of The Rate Guy Podcast is titled, "No, China is Not Dumping Treasurys". We had a better title, but Harbaugh stole it. (You know JP can't resist making some digs) This week we discuss the latest headlines about China selling Treasurys. The reasons they would sell, why they wouldn't sell and we get an expert's take on what the global da…

On this week's Rate Guy podcast, we're zoning in on one of the biggest questions we got from ULI: what will rate cuts look like in 2024. We'll unpack the three potential paths the Fed might take and the reasoning behind each. Plus, we're taking a closer look at that less-than-stellar jobs report to see what it really means. And expect a common thre…

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about GOATs, in sports, in comedy...in interest rates. We also analyze economic conditions and determine which inflation cycle fromt the past are we repeating and why, this week's Fed meeting, how governtment spending is impacting treasury yields, and the biggest contributing factors to a 5% 10Y Treas…

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast, we dive into the "gangbuster" jobs report and what details to pay attention to in this week's inflation data. Curious about the Fed's game plan and how it might impact 2024 rates? We've got some theories...but definitely not the conspiracy kind! Numbers reference if the podcast. For more info check out the P…

On this week's episode of The Rate Guy we dive into big headlines. The 10 Year Treasury's flirting with 5%, GDP, Inflation, Oil, a looming recession and how that won't be enough for the Fed to start cutting...especially when they're working off stale a$$ data. Politics also got spicy with a near shutdown, but with it staying open we'll get the Jobs…

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the upcoming Fed meeting, Inflation trends, the influence of foreign central banks on the 10 Year Treasury and JP creates the seamingly impossible parallel between economic conditions and prime time tv. We have our quarterly webinar this Thursday! Register here : https://www.pensford.com/q3-pensford-webina…

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss the unexpected outcome of the Texas vs. Bama game and take a look at the job market nuances and how they are coming up with the data that The Fed is so dependent on. We also talk about this week's anticipated inflation data and its implications.By JP Conklin

On this Labor Day episode of The Rate Guy podcast we talk about what else...labor! The JOLTs hitting its lowest since April '21, why the Fed's still discussing rate hikes with all of the data pointing the opposite direction and JP's lead pipe lock NFL narrative predictions.By JP Conklin

On this week's Rate Guy Podcast explore the surprising link between Penn State's 1994-95 football season and today's inflation challenges. We break down Dr. Brent Ambrose's Penn State Alternative Inflation Index and what it reveals about inflation during economic peaks and troughs. Hang with us through a unique blend of football memories and econom…

On this episode of The Rate Guys Podcast we dissect San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly's views on inflation and rate hikes. With modest Core CPI increases, is the Fed truly data-driven? Delve into inflation dynamics, housing costs, and global economic markers, like China's CPI. We explore market forecasts and debate the Fed's next steps: will th…

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the bias for higher rates, last week's labor report, the lesser talked about underemployment rate, the outlook for this week's inflation data and a little Swedish lesson delivered beautifully by JP.By JP Conklin

On this special episode of The Rate Guy we discuss today's Fed meeting and translate what we think J Powell was trying to communicate in the Q&A.By JP Conklin

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss this week's Fed meeting, what we expect for the rest of this year and if we can achieve a soft landing. For graphs referenced, click here - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/to-heck-with-your-soft-landingBy JP Conklin

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we analyze last week's inflation data, what that means for the upcoming FOMC meeting and the confusion over why no one is talking about about FHLB advances. Link to the Newsletter to view graphs referenced - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/progress-not-perfection What are FHLB advances? https://www.fhlbof.com…

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss why in the world rates would pop up in the face of a down jobs report and why the Market thinks there is nearly 100% chance that the Fed hikes at the next meeting...and why we think that's bonkers!By JP Conklin

On this episode of The Rate Guy, we discuss Powell's Humphrey Hawkins testimony in front of Congress this week, how his hawkish comments effected the Market and what he continues to hold up as Exhibit A for why more hiking may be necessary. For tables/graphs referenced click here.By JP Conklin

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss CPI, the Fed meeting and how the Market has been reacting the last month to the persception that maybe the Fed won't be cutting interest rates this year. To register for our Q2 webinar this Thursday (6/15 @ 1pm est) click here--> https://www.pensford.com/q2-pensford-webinar-2023 Hope to see you there!…

On this episode of The Rate Guy we dive into the paradox of the strong job report and the Fed's reluctance to hike rates! Despite positive job growth, why is the rate hike's likelihood still in question? We'll also uncover the complexities of wage inflation, treasury issuance, liquidity issues from the recent debt ceiling debate, and the challenges…

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the 5 Reasons why The Fed won't hike on June 14th despite the hotter than inspected inflation data. If you'd also like to read the Newsletter. Check it out here --> https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/five-reasons-why-the-fed-wont-hike-june-14By JP Conklin

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the odds of a hike, pause and when the Fed may start cutting. We also touch on the Leading Economic Indicators index and what to look for this week from Fed speeches and Core PCE. As always, graphs referenced can be found in our Pensford Newsletter at Pensford.com…

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss The Pause (tm) and why future Fed moves will not be data dependent. For those that missed it here is JP's recap of last week's Fed meeting - https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/the-next-fed-move-will-be-a-cutBy JP Conklin

Welcome to another riveting episode of The Rate Guy! Today, we're diving deep into the world of the NFL draft in more ways than one. We explore JP's alternate reality as an NFL GM, his embarrassing, but emotionally healthy football rage outlet that helps him stay sane in the midst of football season. Then we're adding a unique twist by conducting o…

On this episode of The Rate Guy podcast we discuss the Inflation report, stagflation and the status of the banking sector. We also touch on some leading indicators you might not be watching. As always, graphs referenced can be found in the Pensford Newsletter Here is the excellent piece that discussed that Wells put out this week. It is calling for…

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we discuss money supply, the jobs report, volatility and the record credit crunch we are currently facing. Graphs referenced can be found in our Pensford's newsletter https://www.pensford.com/industry-news/a-historical-credit-crunch.By JP Conklin

On this episode of The Rate Guy Podcast we lay out our current take on the Fed's situation, discuss the widespread layoffs and the upcoming jobs report. For graphs referenced check out our Newsletter ZipRecruiter conducted a survey of recently laid off workers (https://www.ziprecruiter.com/blog/survey-of-recently-laid-off-workers/). Here's a list o…

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss Powell's primary messaging goals, the market's reaction to that messaging, and tightening credit conditions. For graphs reference, check out the Pensford Newsletter. www.Pensford.comBy JP Conklin

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss March Madness as it relates to basketball and banking! We talk about the Fed jumping in for the failing banks, the thought process behind the two camps, to hike or not to hike this week, cap prices, and what toilet paper and volatility have in common. It's so crazy right now that it's easy to overlook that…

On this episode of The Rate Guy we discuss the only thing everyone is talking about, the fall of SVB. We touch on how the Fed may respond, important indicators that they can't ignore and if this could be the first domino to topple. JP pulls from his experience of surviving the Financial Crisis to shed light on what parallels he's seeing and what to…

On this short and sweet episode of The Rate Guy we discuss what Friday’s Core PCE report did to rate hike odds, what The Fed is doing to manage expectations, and the effects on Caps and the 10T. Our Webinar is this Thursday! Here is the link to register to attend the Pensford quarterly markets and interest rate update on March 2, 2023 at 1:30pm EST…