The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. Our in depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced and complex interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. We aim to learn from the perspective our guests can bring with respect to the history of financial and business cy ...
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The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Jack Farley interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
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Flirting with Models is the show that aims to pull back the curtain and meet the investors who research, design, develop, and manage quantitative investment strategies. Join Corey Hoffstein, Chief Investment Officer of Newfound Research, on a journey to explore systematic investment strategies, ranging from value to momentum and merger arbitrage to managed futures. For more on Newfound Research, visit www.thinknewfound.com.
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Markku Kurtti – Diversification is a Negatively Priced Lunch
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In this episode I chat with Markku Kurtti, author of the blog Outcast Beta. Markku is classically trained as an electrical engineer and works on receiver algorithms for mobile phones. A passion for investing, however, lead him to pursue an MS in Finance and an interview with Ed Thorp compelled him to devote his time to better understanding compound…
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Can The U.S Handle High Interest Rates Past 2024? | Ben Miller
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This week Ben Miller Fundrise Co-Founder and CEO joins the show. We begin by discussing the U.S public debt problem as debt to GDP remains elevated over 100%. For the second half of the conversation, we deep dive into the current state of the U.S real estate market focusing primarily on CRE. Enjoy! -- Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn …
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Chris Whalen: “Higher For Longer” Interest Rate Regime Is Bad For Banks
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Follow Chris Whalen on Twitter https://twitter.com/rcwhalen Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twit…
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The Great Liquidity Debate | Michael Howell & George Robertson on Monetary vs. Fiscal Flows And What Is Truly Driving This Bull Market
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital and George Robertson of The Monetary Fronteir have two things in common: they both correctly predicted the renewed bull…
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Jerry Peters, Managing Partner, Smithbrook, LLC
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The “rule of 72” tells us that a good approximation for the time it takes to double your money can be arrived at by taking 72 and dividing by the interest rate that capital can compound by on an annual basis. Implicit in the calculation is that the initial stack is left untouched and is not vulnerable to a drawdown. In this context, it was great to…
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Mark Dow: The Bears Are Making Stuff Up About Fed/Treasury Plumbing To Excuse The Fact That They Were Wrong
1:33:16
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Mark Dow has had experience in the global monetary system, having worked at the IMF, as an advisor to three Presidents, and at many central banks around the …
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The Anatomy Of Bubbles | Jonathan Treussard on Private Credit, Nvidia, and Dangers of “Engineered Yield”
1:10:33
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Jonathan Treussard of Treussard Capital Management joins Forward Guidance to help define what a bubble is. By his strict definition, nothing qualifies right …
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Mandy Xu, Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence, Cboe Global Markets
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After a 13-year career at CSFB where she would ultimately head the firm’s equity derivative strategy effort, in 2023 Mandy Xu moved to the CBOE where she’s now Head of Derivatives Market Intelligence and swimming in interesting, complex data sets. Our conversation surveys product innovation, going back to the first option trade ever on the CBOE, ca…
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Blind Squirrel Macro: China Will Unleash “Bloodbath” On Global Automobile Market | Rupert Mitchell on Electric Vehicles, Tires, Refiners, And Gold
1:39:34
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/us/hodlprospectus. __ Rupert Mitchell of Blind Squirrel Macro joins Forward Guidance for the first time to share his learnings from an extensive career as an investment banker mov…
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Kieran Goodwin, Consultant, Saba Capital Management
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Kieran Goodwin’s roots go back to the early days of both distressed debt investing and the credit default swap market, two classes of risk he has seen experience significant change over the last 25 years. Our conversation gets underway by exploring the notion of alpha decay in the distressed market, a diminishing opportunity set that has resulted f…
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The "Beijing Put" | Jason Hsu's Bull Case For Chinese Stocks
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jason Hsu of Rayliant joins Forward Guidance to share his view on the particulars of the Chinese equity market. Hsu argues that th…
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Inflation Isn’t Going Away And Investors Own The Wrong Assets | Larry McDonald on “When Markets Speak”
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Lawrence McDonald, New York Times Bestselling author and founder of The Bear Traps Report returns to Forward Guidance to discuss h…
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Joseph Wang, Michael Howell, Julian Brigden, and Jonny Matthews on 2024 Macro Outlook | Blockworks’ Digital Asset Summit (Recorded March 19, 2024)
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ This is a recorded version of Jack’s macro panel at the 2024 Digital Asset Summit hosted by Blockworks, recorded in London on Marc…
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Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy, RBC Capital Markets
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In Lori Calvasina's role as Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets, assessing the interaction between macro variables like rates with top-down factors like the equity market multiple is critical. But important as well is an evaluation of markets from the bottoms up. And here, she not only seeks to pull together the views of colleagues do…
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Russell Napier On The Rise And Fall Of The Age Of Debt And China’s Choice Between Deflation and Devaluation
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Russell Napier, founder of Orlock Advisors and publisher of The Solid Ground Newsletter, returns to Forward Guidance to share how …
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In today’s episode I speak with Otto van Hemert, Director of Core Strategies at Man AHL. After briefly touching upon Otto’s background, we dive into one of his most popular papers: The Best Strategies for Inflationary Times. Otto shares the inspiration for the research as well as some of what he feels were the less obvious results. Trend strategies…
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Jared Dillian, Author: “No Worries: How to Live a Stress-free Financial Life”
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George Orwell once said that writing a book is a “horrible, exhausting experience…that one would never undertake if one were not driven by some demon whom one can neither resist nor understand”. Ok then. Let’s all agree that writing a book is a heavy lift. Let’s also agree that the personal finance advice industry is littered with gurus making outl…
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Dr. Ingo Sauer on Hyperinflation, Central Bank Insolvency, and The ECB (European Central Bank)
2:27:52
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Dr. Ingo Sauer of Goethe University Frankfurt joins Forward Guidance to share findings from his 360 paper on Hyperinflation in 192…
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Nick Halaris: Commercial Real Estate Hanging In There Despite "Crushing" Interest Rate Shock
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ Nick Halaris, President of Metros Capital, returns to Forward Guidance to update viewers on real estate situation in the U.S. Though …
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Liz Ann Sonders: There's No Such Thing As A Typical Interest Rate Cutting Cycle
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, returns to Forward Guidance to share her investment outlook on U.S…
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The Fate Of The Fed's Balance Sheet | Lou Crandall & Joseph Wang on Draining of Reverse Repo (RRP) Facility, Timeline of QT Taper, and 2024 Tax Refund Data
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Joseph Wang on Twitter https://twitter.com/FedGuy12 Follow Lou Crandall on Twitter https://twitter.com/Fedwatcher Joseph's …
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The Erosion of Institutional Accountability | Dr. Luigi Zingales on Bank Failures, Whistleblowing, and The Fed
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Luigi Zingales on Twitter https://twitter.com/zingales?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor Follow Capita…
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Our final segment of 25 Sayings on Vol and Risk is upon us, and with it, 5 fresh pithy principles that I often turn to in trying to make sense of this chaotic sport we call markets. Along the way, in typing out these more than 20,000 words over the series, I’m probably out more than 50 dollars in espresso inspired drinks from Starbucks lead by the …
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Portrait Of A Sick Market | Milton Berg On How The Stock Market’s Exhaustive Rally Is Reminiscent of 2000, 1968, and 1929
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Milton Berg, renowned market technician known to viewers for his contrarian bullish call in January of 2023, returns to Forward Guidance with a far less rosy outlook. As of recording on February 28, 2024, Berg is decidedly bearish in the face of a stupendous stock market rally. He sees signs of an exhaustive peak and expects a decline, which could …
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Remi on Twitter https://twitter.com/TheKingCourt Remi’s Substack, “The Mad King”: https://onemadking.substack.com/ Follow V…
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Claudia Sahm: The Fed Itself Is The Biggest Risk To A Soft Landing
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Claudia Sahm on Twitter https://twitter.com/Claudia_Sahm Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack…
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Adrian Helfert on Stock/Bond Allocation, Equity Broadening, and Credit Market Richness
1:05:15
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Adrian Helfert, chief investment officer of Westwood Holdings Group (AUM ~$16B), joins Forward Guidance to share his quantitative approach to asset allocation. He explains why, even with the drastic surge in interest rates, he prefers an overweight allocation to equities over bonds. Filmed on February 21, 2024. __ Finally, you can easily access Bit…
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The task at hand is simple….make further progress on our 25 Sayings on Vol and Risk. I’ve certainly had some fun with the first 15. Somehow, in the context of this exploration of market risk philosophy, I’ve managed to quote both former President Ronald Reagan and Seinfeld hack comedian Kenny Bannia, summoned the wisdom of Wolf of Wall Street’s Mar…
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Overheated Stock Market To Correct Before Continuing Rally | Le Shrub on Le Shrub on AI, CRE, and China
1:26:21
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more.VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Le Shrub on Twitter https://twitter.com/agnostoxxx Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley…
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Real Estate Crisis Hits Two German Banks | Josef Pschorn on Deutsche Pfandbriefbank and Aareal Bank
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forwa…
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Swiss Re’s Patrick Saner on Soft Landing Scenario, Central Bank Balance Sheet Policy, and Inflation Volatility
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Patrick Saner, Head of Macro Strategy at Swiss Re, joins Forward Guidance to share his insights on the global economy, interest rates, and central bank policy. Filmed on February 16, 2024. Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trus…
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Paul Sankey: Oil Would Be Below $60 If It Weren’t For Saudi Production Cuts
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Paul Sankey on Twitter https://twitter.com/crudegusher Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack F…
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Our journey to 25 Sayings on Vol and Risk continues, folks…and as UFC’s Bruce Buffer is known to emphatically tells us…”It’s TIME!”… for our third segment…sayings 11-15. We’ve got some good ones ahead of us and, as always, I aim to share some of my thinking on markets, overlay a dose of history and pop culture and, perhaps, give you a chuckle in th…
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Secrets of Small Cap Value Investing | Kyle Mowery
1:17:31
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forwa…
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The Rising Risks In The Private Credit Lending Bonanza | Andrzej Skiba
1:12:42
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://twitter.com/JackFarley96 Follow Forwa…
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Danny Dayan: Reacceleration Risk Threatens Bond Market, Demographics In U.S. Are Inflationary (Not Deflationary)
1:17:22
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Danny Dayan on Twitter: https://twitter.com/DannyDayan5 Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Jack …
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Martin Pelletier & Joseph Wang on Stock Market Concentration, Cash-Futures Treasury Basis Trade, Structured Products, and New York Community Bank
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By Blockworks
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China’s Deflation Trap | Brian McCarthy On The Popping Of The World’s Biggest Bubble Ever
1:24:52
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Brian McCarthy on Twitter https://twitter.com/briangobosox Follow VanEck on Twitter https://twitter.com/vaneck_us Follow Ja…
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Hello! You’ve reached part 2 of our 5 part series “25 Sayings on Vol and Risk”. Over the first half hour episode, we kicked off with the first 5. Over these 30 minutes, we shall explore sayings 6 through 10. The task at hand is to make headway on our sayings, and, hopefully, entertain you a bit in the process. My goal, share some of what I’ve writt…
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Citrini: The Next Phase of The Stock Market's AI-Obsession
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Follow Citrini on Twitter: https://twitter.com/Citrini7 Citrini's Substack: https://www.citriniresearch.com/ Follow VanEck on Twit…
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Dean Curnutt: Market Insurance Is Cheap, Stock-Bond Correlation Is Positive, And “Interesting” VIX Opportunities
1:24:09
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Finally, you can easily access Bitcoin in a low-cost ETF with the VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL). Visit https://vaneck.com/HODLFG to learn more. Dean Curnutt, founder and CEO of Macro Risk Advisors, joins Forward Guidance to share how the ongoing bull market has led to a bear market in volatility. Realized and implied vol has fallen sharply as the mar…
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Efforts to understand the “why” of the motion in asset prices consume our time and attention in markets. To be sure, traditional sources of risk – namely the economy, the path of corporate profits and changes in the interest rate cycle – do matter. But, as Matt King argues, especially since 2012, we increasingly need to monitor what’s happening in …
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Clayton Gillespie - A Fundamental View of Quant Equity (S7E5)
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My guest this episode is Clayton Gillespie, VP at Deutsche Bank where he works in quant equity research for the QIS team. Clayton began his career at Credit Suisse HOLT, where he got his hands dirty in extracting fundamental information. This formative experience dramatically impacted how he views how fundamentals should be incorporated into quanti…
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Joseph Wang On “Hawkish” Fed Meeting: March Cuts Unlikely, Tapering of Quantitative Tightening (QT) To Begin In Q4 2024 | Joseph Wang, Michael Ippolito, and Jack Farley
1:03:11
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__ Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: https://vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ __ Jack, Joseph Wang, and Mike Ippolito break down the January Fed meeting. Recorded shortly after the Powell press conference on January 31, 2024. __ Follow Jo…
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I wanted to share with you some of my thoughts about the current state of market risk as this new year is now sufficiently underway. A number of years ago, I created a list that I call “25 Sayings on Vol and Risk”. In the spirt of 7 minute abs and 12 holiday recipes, I think lists are an easy way to connect concepts. Twenty five is a lot to get thr…
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U.S. Treasury Issuance To Exceed $1.1 Trillion (Gross) In Second Quarter, Predicts Plumbing Savant John Comiskey
1:22:43
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by VanEck. Learn more about VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) http://vaneck.com/HODLFG. VanEck Bitcoin Trust (HODL) Prospectus: vaneck.com/hodlprospectus/ John Comiskey’s day job does not involve processing reams of data on the daily deposits and withdrawals of the U.S. Treasury’s bank account in order to predict how much th…
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Chris Whalen: Commercial Real Estate "Trainwreck” Will Hit Banking System, Consumer Credit Is Normalizing, and Interest Rate Cuts Won’t Do Much To Help Banks
1:08:38
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Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at https://vaneck.com/MOATFG. __ Chris Whalen of Whalen Global Advisors returns to Forward Guidance to share his outlook on the U.S. banking sector for 2024. Whalen argues that consumer and business credit is faring fine, as delinquencies are risi…
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