Best EOTM Podcasts (2024)

1
A severe case of COVIDIA: prognosis for an AI-driven US equity market 25:26

10d ago25:26

25:26

NVIDIA and its GPU customers are now a large driver of equity market returns, earnings growth, earnings revisions, industrial production and capital spending. View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
There’s no place like home 18:38

20d ago18:38

18:38

A surge in the Japanese Yen is resulting in home repatriation of Yen-funded positions overseas, and close-out of Yen-funded positions abroad. While Google was found guilty of home bias anti-competitive search engine behavior, any judicial remedies may be worse for recipients of Google’s “shelf space” payments than for Google itself. Work-from-home …

1
The Lion in Winter 16:43

2M ago16:43

16:43

From 1930 to 2010, there were six extended periods of small cap outperformance as it dominated large cap over that entire period. But since 2010, small cap sits alongside value stocks and non-US stocks in the unholy trinity of underperforming portfolio strategies. While poor profit fundamentals argue against a prolonged period of outperformance vs …

1
The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State 19:51

2M ago19:51

19:51

The Supreme Court vs the Regulatory State. Recent Supreme Court rulings may now usher in the largest pushback on the regulatory state since the Reagan Administration. A look at the end of Chevron deference, a revised statute of limitations for challenging government regulations, the Major Questions Doctrine, the right to a jury trial and a District…

1
A Piece of the Action 9:09

4M ago9:09

9:09

Investing in professional sports leagues and related businesses. As rules around private equity ownership of sports leagues expand, we review team valuations and profitability, emerging sports categories, streaming and broadcast revenues, the decline of regional sports networks, drivers and comparisons of league parity, relegation and financial pre…

1
Animal Farm 23:33

4M ago23:33

23:33

With spring planting season having arrived in Zone 7, it’s a good time to review agriculture from an investor’s perspective. Topics include agricultural price inflation in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine; public and private equity investments in agriculture, farmland ownership and the drivers of farmland returns; seed bio-engineering desig…

1
Cicadian Rhythms 23:31

5M ago23:31

23:31

Cicadian Rhythms: the fading prospects of a US disinflationary boom; Japan’s structural reform/M&A emergence; and Eye on the Market mailbag responses to questions on Tesla/Musk, GLPs, housing, China, Truth Social and Meta’s latest open source model View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly 19:14

6M ago19:14

19:14

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: an investor lens on tech valuations, AI, energy and the US Presidential Election. View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
Electravision 22:12

7M ago22:12

22:12

This Eye on the Market is about the predominant vision for the future which involves the electrification of everything, powered by solar, wind, transmission and distributed energy storage. View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
Five Easy Pieces 19:11

8M ago19:11

19:11

Five Easy Pieces: on Magnificent 7 stocks, open source large language models, the No Labels movement, the Armageddonists and bottom-fishing in Chinese equities. View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
Medical Complications 11:49

8M ago11:49

11:49

This Eye on the Market is about all the things that can be true at the same time. The collapse of the political middle in Congress should not be an excuse for everyone else to abandon the ability to believe things that may appear contradictory, but which are all part of a more complicated reality. View video here…

1
Outlook 2024 - Episode 3: Deep Dive—Top Ten Surprises 15:52

8M ago15:52

15:52

A top ten list on what might happen… not what will happen, in honor of strategist Byron Wien View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
Outlook 2024 - Episode 2: Deep Dive—The Fats Dominoes 18:14

8M ago18:14

18:14

The impact of weight loss drugs on equity markets. View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
Eye on the Market Outlook 2024: Pillow Talk - Episode 1: Outlook Overview 24:23

9M ago24:23

24:23

Falling US inflation and possible Fed easing are increasing talk of a soft landing rather than a hard landing and bear market. Our 2024 Outlook takes a closer look at equities, fixed income, China, Japan, antitrust, weight loss drugs and ten surprises for 2024. View transcript View the video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
It’s Mostly a Paper Moon: Alternative Investments Review 21:12

10M ago21:12

21:12

A review on industry returns in private equity, venture capital, hedge funds, commercial real estate, infrastructure and private credit View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
Not That 70’s Show 26:26

10M ago26:26

26:26

Six questions and answers on the intersection between geopolitics, US politics and financial markets View transcript View video hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
New York, Just Like I Pictured It 22:40

11M ago22:40

22:40

Comments on NYC compared to 21 other US cities with respect to urban recovery, commercial real estate, mass transit, crime, outmigration, work-from-home trends, tax rates, economic pulse, fiscal health, unfunded pensions, energy prices, industry diversification and competitiveness. View transcript View video here View deck here…

1
What was I made for: Large Language Models in the Real World 17:43

12M ago17:43

17:43

I asked Chat GPT-4 questions on economics, markets, energy and politics that my analysts and I worked on over the last two years. This piece reviews the results, along with the latest achievements and stumbles of generative AI models in the real world, and comments on the changing relationship between innovation, productivity and employment. View t…

1
The Rasputin Effect 20:55

1y ago20:55

20:55

Global resilience to higher rates View transcript View video and charts hereBy Michael Cembalest

1
Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride 12:27

1y ago12:27

12:27

The impact of underperforming 2020 and 2021 US IPOs View transcript with chart referencesBy Michael Cembalest

1
Letters to the Editor 16:17

1+ y ago16:17

16:17

Comments on mega-cap stocks and artificial intelligence. Then, it’s time for some of my unsolicited letters to Barron’s, MSNBC, “No Labels”, FHFA and more.By Michael Cembalest

1
Too Long at the Fair 9:30

1+ y ago9:30

9:30

Time to retire the US/Emerging Markets barbell for a while View transcript with chart referencesBy Michael Cembalest

1
The Places We Could Go 16:11

1+ y ago16:11

16:11

Before getting into the US$ discussion, three quick things. First, despite strong US data in Q1 and Q2, the US still appears headed for a slowdown later this year. As shown below, many longer-horizon leading indicators point in that direction. Excess household savings are also being run down and should be 60%-70% depleted by the end of the year. St…

1
Frankenstein’s Monster 18:44

1+ y ago18:44

18:44

Frankenstein’s Monster: banking system deposits and the unintended fallout from the Fed’s monetary experiment; commercial real estate, regional banks and the COVID occupancy shock; the wipeout of Credit Suisse contingent capital securities; a market and economic update; and an update on San Francisco, which has experienced the weakest post-COVID re…

1
Growing Pains: The Renewable Transition in Adolescence 18:46

1+ y ago18:46

18:46

Renewables are growing but don’t always behave the way you want them to. This year’s topics include the impact of rising clean energy investment and new energy bills, how grid decarbonization is outpacing electrification, the long-term oil demand outlook, the flawed concept of levelized cost when applied to wind and solar power, the scramble for cr…

1
Winter Heating 16:28

1+ y ago16:28

16:28

The large language model battles begin: a look at the future of web search, conventional wisdom machines, hallucinating bears in space, some early application successes and how far they still are from humans. View transcript with chart referencesBy Michael Cembalest

1
American Gothic 9:20

1+ y ago9:20

9:20

The Federal debt and how the Visigoths may try to break the system if no one fixes it View transcript with the chart referencesBy Michael Cembalest

1
The End of the Affair 26:49

1+ y ago26:49

26:49

The affair with the market catalysts of the last decade is over now, and a new era of investing begins View transcript with chart referencesBy Michael Cembalest

1
Holiday Eye on the Market: Non-Fungible Trainwreck 15:43

2y ago15:43

15:43

Holiday Eye on the Market: the YUCs, the MUCs, FTX, the Gensler Rule and the Summers RuleBy Michael Cembalest

1
A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving 14:57

2y ago14:57

14:57

In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM survey, which tends to coincide with the equity market bottom +/- 2 months. So, in the interest of thinking ab…

1
Reruns 15:33

2y ago15:33

15:33

Reruns: how equity declines precede the fall in earnings, growth and employment during recessions; new US semiconductor export policies on China and the clash of empires; and other press article extolling the renewable energy virtues of a country with little relevance for anyone elseBy Michael Cembalest

1
Arrested Development 14:19

2y ago14:19

14:19

Arrested Development: the pressure on profit margins, the tightest labor markets in decades and whether “second chance” policies for those with criminal arrest records can expand the labor forceBy Michael Cembalest

1
On CPI, S&P, GHG and the IRS 18:42

2y ago18:42

18:42

Three topics in this month’s Eye on the Market. First, an update on the Fed, inflation and corporate profits since we believe the June equity market lows may be retested in the fall. Second, a detailed look at what would have to happen for the climate bill’s projected GHG savings to actually occur; the answer matters given the implications for the …

1
Independence Days 18:29

2y ago18:29

18:29

Topics: A revised map of the United States; investing in equities before a recession; Russia’s natural gas squeeze on Europe leads to another rescue program for Italy; the high cost of pariah status for the oil refining industryBy Michael Cembalest

1
The Elephants in the Room: Part Four, Whydrogen 22:32

2+ y ago22:32

22:32

Hydrogen use cases may be much narrower than advertised, and the timeline is a very long oneBy Michael Cembalest

1
The Elephants in the Room: Part Three, Electrification of home heating 15:47

2+ y ago15:47

15:47

Fossil fuel bans, heat pumps and electrification of winter heating: What will happen to transmission grids at times of peak loads if no backup heating systems are in place? And what about the pace of change if bans on fossil fuels only apply to new buildings?By Michael Cembalest

1
Bear Market Barometers 10:44

2+ y ago10:44

10:44

The slowdown induced by central bank tightening is just starting. Be patient when adding risk to portfolios. Valuations have declined materially but the price paid for high earnings growth is still elevated.By Michael Cembalest

1
The Elephants in the Room: Part Two, Transmission and electric vehicles 19:33

2+ y ago19:33

19:33

We continue with two topics on electrification, which is the foundation of many deep decarbonization plans: electric vehicle adoption by gasoline super-users and the transmission quagmireBy Michael Cembalest

1
The Elephants in the Room 18:20

2+ y ago18:20

18:20

We start with a summary of the energy landscape, including the energy crisis in Europe, the recovery in the oil & gas sector and a warning label on industrial electrification and carbon sequestrationBy Michael Cembalest

1
Surveying the Damage 15:35

2+ y ago15:35

15:35

Surveying the Damage: Russia’s recurring war on Ukraine, equity market declines and the opportunity for bottom-fishing investors, the energy price surge/recession outlook in Europe, the impact of rising metals prices on EV battery costs, the COVID situation in Hong Kong and the latest on ivermectinBy Michael Cembalest

1
China and the Russian invasion of Ukraine 12:37

2+ y ago12:37

12:37

The bulk of this note is on China, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the surge in natural gas, oil, coal, electricity, wheat, copper, palladium and other prices which will probably drag Europe into recession, and impose a heavy growth drag on the rest of the world as well. But before getting into it, the chart below should hang in the offices of pol…

1
Webcast replay: Russia, Ukraine and implications for investors 58:48

2+ y ago58:48

58:48

Listen to Michael Cembalest, Chairman of Market and Investment Strategy, Monica Dicenso, Head of Global Investment Opportunities Group, and Kathryn Pasqualone, Client Advisor, North America Institutional, discuss the current situation in Russia and Ukraine, and the implications for investors.By Michael Cembalest

1
Risk unwind, supply chains and the Ukraine 15:59

2+ y ago15:59

15:59

Topics: Tracking the market risk unwind; Supply chain update; Ukraine; Invasion of the COVID Body SnatchersBy Michael Cembalest

1
Middle Ages 13:29

3y ago13:29

13:29

On equity markets, the Lombards, SPAC investors, Bone-setters, George Washington, COVID bots and Omicron.By Michael Cembalest

1
The Thing 14:06

3y ago14:06

14:06

Some things just cannot be talked about. So in this year’s Thanksgiving piece, I wrote about something else.By Michael Cembalest

1
Help Wanted 15:27

3y ago15:27

15:27

“Help Wanted”. We expect semiconductor, vehicle and other goods bottlenecks to resolve themselves in the months ahead, and interpret declining business surveys as the result of a temporary supply shock and not a sign of inadequate demand. As a result, growth should rebound in 2022, and positions that benefit from reflation should benefit (energy, v…

1
Dude, Where’s My Stuff 13:41

3y ago13:41

13:41

The global supply chain mess will require increased global vaccination and acquired immunity, semiconductor capacity expansion and the end of extraordinary housing/labor supports to resolve. We expect all three to occur over the next few months, leading to a global growth bounce in 2022By Michael Cembalest

1
Spaccine hesitancy 12:05

3y ago12:05

12:05

Topics: if people avoided SPACs instead of avoiding COVID vaccines, the US would be both wealthier and closer to herd immunity. An update on our SPAC analysis from last February, and a look at the strange mathematical paradox that ends up understating some critical COVID vaccine efficacy dataBy Michael Cembalest

1
Red Med Redemption 11:39

3y ago11:39

11:39

Politics, vaccination resistance and the Delta variant; US economic recovery update; big tech reliance on acquisitions to fuel growthBy Michael Cembalest

1
Thy Brother’s Keeper 15:58

3y ago15:58

15:58

COVID and the Delta variant; the Fed as firefighter and arsonist; US-China economic divorce picks up steam; and the pig-snake inflation timetable (how long until we know if there’s a permanent wage/price rise).By Michael Cembalest

Podcasts Worth a Listen

EOTM Podcasts

Podcasts Worth a Listen

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