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A CH₄, HR4346 and mRNA-1273 Thanksgiving
Manage episode 345968630 series 2164374
Content provided by Michael Cembalest. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Michael Cembalest or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.
In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM survey, which tends to coincide with the equity market bottom +/- 2 months. So, in the interest of thinking about when equities could bottom, the first chart below projects the ISM survey by looking at new orders and inventories. Using this crude approach, the ISM would bottom in the mid-40’s in December. If so, 3570 on the S&P 500 Index reached in mid-October could actually mark the low for the cycle; such a scenario should not be discounted entirely, and would be consistent with market history.
110 episodes
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Manage episode 345968630 series 2164374
Content provided by Michael Cembalest. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Michael Cembalest or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.
In the October Eye on the Market I wrote about how in 6 of 7 post-war recessions, equity markets preceded the decline in profits, employment and GDP by several months at least. I also mentioned that the best indicator to follow was the ISM survey, which tends to coincide with the equity market bottom +/- 2 months. So, in the interest of thinking about when equities could bottom, the first chart below projects the ISM survey by looking at new orders and inventories. Using this crude approach, the ISM would bottom in the mid-40’s in December. If so, 3570 on the S&P 500 Index reached in mid-October could actually mark the low for the cycle; such a scenario should not be discounted entirely, and would be consistent with market history.
110 episodes
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Similar to Eye On The Market
Alessandro Bogliari, CEO and Co-Founder of The Influencer Marketing Factory, a global influencer marketing agency, talks with great guests about influencer marketing, social media, the creator economy, social commerce and much more.
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Paisa Vaisa is India's premier podcast on personal finance, boasting over 4 million downloads, featuring over 200 hours of insightful content and discussions, hosting more than 250 guests, and presenting a wealth of knowledge through over 450 episodes. Since 2017, Paisa Vaisa hosts experts from mutual funds, stocks, real estate, loans, education financing, insurance, and much more. It has recently introduced a sub-series offering valuable insights in businesses and entrepreneurship. You can ...
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