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A daily news analysis show on all things artificial intelligence. NLW looks at AI from multiple angles, from the explosion of creativity brought on by new tools like Midjourney and ChatGPT to the potential disruptions to work and industries as we know them to the great philosophical, ethical and practical questions of advanced general intelligence, alignment and x-risk.
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A daily analysis of macroeconomics, bitcoin, geopolitics and big picture power shifts, hosted by Nathaniel Whittemore @nlw. The Breakdown is part of Blockworks. Subscribe to The Breakdown newsletter: https://the-breakdown.carrd.co/
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Gemini 3 officially launched, bringing one of the biggest capability jumps since GPT-4. The episode breaks down what the new model actually delivers, why its benchmark dominance matters, how developers are reacting to early tests, and what Google’s new Antigravity IDE signals for the future of coding agents. The discussion covers market implication…
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The crypto market is facing a renewed period of intense fear as Bitcoin turned red on the year, briefly dropping below $93,000 amid a 10% weekly drawdown and the Fear & Greed Index hitting extreme lows. NLW explores whether this 25% correction marks the start of a traditional bear market or is simply Bitcoin transitioning into a more institutional …
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The AI Scientist That Does 6 Months of Work in a Day
24:52
24:52
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24:52
An emerging “AI scientist” called Kosmos is claiming the ability to do six months of research in a single day—reading 1,500 papers, writing tens of thousands of lines of code, and producing validated discoveries across neuroscience, genetics, material science, and Alzheimer’s research. This episode breaks down what Kosmos actually is, how it works,…
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The Week Crypto Moved Forward While Prices Fell Behind
23:49
23:49
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23:49
Extreme fear grips the market and Bitcoin dips into the mid-$90Ks, but the real story is everything happening underneath the sell-off. This Friday 5 breaks down the heavy wallet distribution, the liquidation wave, and why short-term price pain contrasts so sharply with long-term structural progress — from new SEC/CFTC clarity efforts to bipartisan …
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Can AI Be Normal and Transformative at the Same Time?
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22:08
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A new collaboration between the authors of AI 2027 and AI as Normal Technology lays out 12 areas where two very different visions of the future unexpectedly converge. This episode breaks down their shared conclusions on timelines, benchmarks, safety limits, alignment challenges, economic diffusion, and what strong AGI would actually require. The re…
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Today’s episode examines the core debate shaping the AI industry: whether application-layer companies can survive the pace and instability of the model layer. The discussion covers the arguments that apps can’t outrun rapid model shifts, the counter-case for deep vertical products, and what Cursor’s momentum reveals about where durable value might …
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What the End of the Shutdown Really Means for Crypto
11:37
11:37
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11:37
NLW looks at what the end of the 43-day government shutdown means for crypto, from the CFTC finally moving toward a confirmed chair and opening the door to regulated spot markets, to the SEC racing to revive its tokenization and ETF agenda. He breaks down how Congress is picking up the stalled market-structure bill, what renewed Treasury spending m…
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NLW breaks down the surprise release of GPT-5.1 and why it feels like a more meaningful upgrade than expected. From sharper strategic thinking to better instruction following, improved writing, and a more capable “thinking” mode, today’s episode explores six areas where the new model clearly outperforms GPT-5. NLW also looks at how the community is…
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Did the US Steal $13 Billion in Bitcoin? China Says Yes
11:31
11:31
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China is accusing the US of hacking a major Bitcoin mining pool in 2020 and stealing 127,000 BTC—now worth more than $13 billion. NLW breaks down the origins of the Labuyan hack, why the coins later appeared in DOJ-linked wallets, the allegations surrounding Chinese billionaire Chen Ji, and what this fight reveals about Bitcoin’s role in rising US–…
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Today on the AI Daily Brief, NLW covers two stories that may signal a major shift in the AI landscape: Yann LeCun’s departure from Meta and Dr. Fei-Fei Li’s new argument that spatial intelligence and world models—not just LLMs—will define the next era of AI, exploring what world models actually are, why some researchers think they’re essential for …
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The Open Source AI Model Beating GPT-5 on Agents
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23:56
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Today on the AI Daily Brief, NLW explores the rise of Kimi K2 Thinking, a new open-source model from China that’s outperforming GPT-5 and Claude 4.5 Sonnet on agentic benchmarks—and doing it at a fraction of the cost. We’ll look at how this shift is changing the balance of power between closed and open models, why Silicon Valley startups are alread…
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Bitcoin’s $100K Test and the Return of Stimmy Checks
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12:54
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After one of Bitcoin’s sharpest sell-offs of the cycle, sentiment across crypto turned fearful as whales dumped billions and ETFs saw record outflows. But a weekend surge of political and fiscal news — from Trump’s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” to 50-year mortgages and a government-reopening deal — reignited markets and sent Bitcoin rebounding.…
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What Should the Government’s Role in AI Be?
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27:11
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27:11
As OpenAI’s “backstop” comments spark debate about bailouts, industrial policy, and the future of compute, NLW explores what the government’s role in AI should actually be. From OpenAI’s new “AI Progress and Recommendations” report to reactions from policymakers and economists, this episode breaks down how the politics of AI are heating up—and why …
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A Framework for Choosing Winning AI Use Cases [Agent Readiness Part 3]
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29:38
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29:38
In the third and final episode of our Agent Readiness series, NLW and Nufar Gaspar dive into how to identify, prioritize, and measure AI use cases inside your company. They break down a practical framework for evaluating opportunities, balancing growth and efficiency initiatives, and managing your AI portfolio like an investment strategy. Plus, the…
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The AI ROI Surprise: Wharton Finds 75% of Enterprises Seeing Positive ROI from AI
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21:35
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21:35
A major new study from Wharton finds that three out of four enterprises are already getting positive ROI from their AI investments — a far cry from the doom-and-gloom narratives of failed adoption. NLW breaks down the findings: how GenAI has moved from curiosity to core workflow, what use cases are driving measurable returns, and why 2026 may be th…
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Why OpenAI’s CFO Just Sparked an AI Bailout Debate
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25:00
After OpenAI’s CFO floated the idea of a U.S. government “backstop” for AI data center investments, backlash was swift — from finance leaders calling it a “pre-bailout bailout” to policy experts warning of regulatory capture. NLW breaks down the controversy, connects it to Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s warning that “China will win the AI race,” and exp…
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How Consulting Reveals the Real Pattern of AI Disruption
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NLW shares 13 lessons from the consulting industry that expose how AI disruption really happens—not through mass extinction, but through transformation. From collapsing delivery costs and shifting client expectations to new capabilities and challenger firms on the rise, this episode explores why consulting is the perfect case study for understandin…
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As OpenAI announces yet another mega deal—this time with Amazon—questions are growing about whether the company has become too big to fail. NLW unpacks Sam Altman’s viral response to investor skepticism, explores the math behind OpenAI’s $1.4 trillion in commitments, and looks at what “too big to fail” really means in an AI context. Plus, in the he…
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With NLW currently on the road, he's joined in this conversation by Sean “Swyx” Wang — developer, writer, Latent Space host and newly joined member of Cognition. They explore how AI coding became 2025’s defining story, why “vibe coding” is ending (sort of), what comes next for developers, and how “Agent Labs” are reshaping the balance between model…
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The 5 Biggest AI Stories to Watch in November
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October was one of the biggest months yet in AI — from OpenAI’s nonstop product blitz to Google’s booming Gemini numbers, new robotics milestones, and the growing debate around an “AI bubble.” In this episode, NLW recaps the key developments from October and shares the five stories to watch in November — including whether Gemini 3 is finally coming…
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Wall Street’s Crypto Push, Western Union’s Stablecoin, and the Fed’s Halloween Confusion
19:36
19:36
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On this Halloween Friday Five, NLW and Scott Melker break down a wild week in macro and crypto. The Fed’s latest meeting left markets confused about future rate cuts, while Wall Street and legacy payment giants doubled down on digital assets. ICE partners with Polymarket to explore tokenized collateral, Mastercard eyes a $2B crypto acquisition, and…
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So Far, AI Can Only Automate 2.5% of Jobs
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21:54
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That is, according to a new study designed to how well AI agents can perform real-world freelance projects. The results show just how far full automation remains. NLW breaks down the new “Remote Labor Index,” how it compares to OpenAI’s GDP-V metric, and what it reveals about the difference between automating tasks versus entire jobs. Plus: Amazon’…
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Fed Cuts as Expected, But Powell Keeps Markets Guessing
10:21
10:21
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Markets got the rate cut they expected — but not the clarity they wanted. Fed Chair Jerome Powell stunned investors by signaling that December’s cut is “far from a foregone conclusion,” while also announcing an end to quantitative tightening. With two dissents on the committee and growing confusion over data gaps from the government shutdown, Powel…
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Why OpenAI’s $1 Trillion IPO Can’t Come Soon Enough
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25:23
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A new Reuters report says OpenAI is considering an IPO that could raise at least $60 billion—potentially as early as late next year or in 2027. The move would mark one of the biggest market debuts in history and signal that the company’s capital needs have outgrown private markets. NLW breaks down why going public might be inevitable, what it would…
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Polymarket’s $9B Comeback: Prediction Markets Return to the U.S.
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12:02
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Polymarket is preparing to relaunch in the U.S. after years in regulatory exile, now armed with a CFTC-compliant license and a $9B valuation. The move signals a new era for prediction markets—blurring the line between crypto, sports betting, and social platforms. Plus: Visa’s stablecoin expansion, Western Union’s on-chain pivot, and BlackRock’s Lar…
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