Gareth and Jeremy discuss the tumultuous week that was. With England’s football woes kicking off the week, the rest was dominated once again by politics. In the UK the new Labour government’s policies were outlined in the King’s Speech, with much talk around changes to the planning process and the likely positive repercussions for UK housebuilders …

George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on recent tech news and discuss the implications of the new Labour government upon the small and mid-cap listed tech space. George has been canvassing opinions amongst the great and the good of UK tech and found a generally positive, if somewhat non-committal, view. The Labour party have been making many o…

This week, Gareth and Jeremy discuss the positive set-up for UK equities, helped by stronger-than-expected GDP growth for May, the firm £, and lower US inflation, which has raised hopes of rate cuts. The new Labour government's honeymoon period is underway, and they are looking busy, but will it last forever? There are emerging signs that the unwin…

As usual Gareth and Jeremy discuss the macro backdrop to markets over the last week and take a look at UK company news. We have a look at CML Microsystems results. Jeremy tries to compare the UK market to the England football team's progress to date at Euro '24. Next week, we get UK GDP data, US inflation data, and more politics. Made possible by P…

George O'Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on recent tech news. They discuss Ian’s blog on the question of what 'cloud native' is and whether we really need the big rewrite of existing code. George reviews the positive news extending from the small end with Made Tech and tinyBuild, through to the giant Accenture. He also talks about his evening at …

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the week's macro and UK market news before looking ahead to next week. The headlines remain dominated by politics with more than one election every week during 2024. The UK election outcome is largely known, but there is more uncertainty elsewhere. We have seen a return of Yen weakness, which highlights the high level of J…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the macro and UK company news of the past week and examine what lies ahead next week. This week's macro focus is on the UK, with annual inflation landing on target at 2%, the Bank's decision to keep rates on hold, and better-than-expected retail sales and consumer confidence data. In UK company news, they discuss ongoing M…

As some 45,000 people attended London's Tech Week last week, George O'Connor and Ian Robertson got together to talk about the latest sector news. With the theme of rates higher for longer equating to lower for longer, George touched on how this macro centric year of elections was effecting the growth prospects of Small Caps. Ian discussed the geo-s…

Gareth & Jeremy discuss the way European elections and particularly the surprise French National Assembly election are impacting markets. They also cover the US rate decision and inflation data this week. The UK is keeping calm and carrying on as Raspberry Pi successfully launches onto the market and they discuss other companies including DFS, Peel…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the week's market news from a macro perspective, focusing on UK companies and the equity market. Lower commodity and energy prices and the start of the rate reduction cycle as the ECB lowers rates are included this week. Politics is having an impact in India and Mexico, and looking into next week, we have the European elec…

Gareth & Jeremy discuss the week's market news. US GDP growth has started to slow down. However, the big news is the return to life of the UK stock market. Our equity capital markets, long believed dead, sprang to life again last week and priced £8bn with some large rights issues and a wide range of smaller deals that have been absorbed by a streng…

George O'Connor and Ian Robertson discuss the impact of digitalisation on analog businesses and how sometimes it is not the big disruptive story that makes the difference. Digitalisation has made a huge impact on the world of Domino’s Pizza and yet Cazoo has shown that being a ‘disruptor’ is not enough – you have to know what you are trying to disr…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the economic news that UK inflation is not falling as fast as expected, and the big political news about the UK General Election. In the US, Nvidia is a sprinting giant that rose one HSBC in value in the minutes following its better-than-expected Q2 earnings release. They also discuss the growing M&A activity in the UK mar…

In this episode George O’Connor and Ian Robertson catch up on recent and mostly positive Tech News, with George holding his positivity pledge card firmly aloft. They also discuss the Raspberry Pi IPO – another reason to be cheerful. A London float, a good company, a growth company and litmus test for the UK equity market. Brought to you by Progress…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the week's market news, highlighting the lower-than-expected US inflation print. The UK is increasingly in a Goldilocks scenario with the lower US$ and relative strength of the Pound, giving the BoE greater scope to reduce rates next month. There is increasing momentum behind the UK market move. In UK company news, Raspber…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the improving macroeconomic backdrop, with easier financial conditions driven by the Fed's decision to reduce its balance sheet less quickly. Is negative QT the same as QE? The effect is the same. The BoE is pretty explicitly steering towards a rate cut at the next meeting in June. Lower mortgage rates are on the horizon, …

Gareth and Jeremy are joined this week by Property & Construction analyst and housebuilding meteorologist, Alastair Stewart. The macro topics for discussion are the Yen, the continued volatility in the Asian currency markets, the Federal Reserve policy rate decision and what the Bank of England might do with regards to its own interest rate decisio…

George O’Connor and Ian Robertson discuss UK small and mid-cap tech, examining current issues and searching for facts, clarity and understanding. In this first episode they discuss the opportunities in motion capture, virtual reality and machine learning smart vision at Oxford Metrics, and the potential for profitable semiconductor player, CML Micr…

Please note this was recorded before the Microsoft and Alphabet Q1 results were announced. Gareth and Jeremy discuss the prospect of great equity market dispersal, the benign political risk of the UK, the demise of ESG, and the attractive value of UK-listed assets. Meta and Nvidia share prices are falling, and the Magnificient Seven shows signs of …

For this week's Market Call Gareth and Jeremy are joined again by Scott Evans of the London Business School and the Deutsche Numis Equity Indices. Scott talks about market performance in Q1 2024. Where have markets come from, how have they performed in Q1, and where are they going? Bond yields have risen, inflation is sticky, and rates are higher f…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the week in markets. US inflation is proving sticky, and it is increasingly difficult to justify cutting rates on economic grounds. The question is whether the BoE or ECB would cut ahead of the Fed. China is exporting deflation. In the UK, GDP grew more than expected in February, and the January figure was revised upwards.…

Legendary technology analyst and new Progressive team member George O'Connor joins Gareth & Jeremy. Jeremy discusses the backdrop for persistent inflation and higher for longer interest rates including higher commodity prices, including gold. They discuss how pawnbrokers, H&T and Ramsdens illustrate how higher gold prices lead people to sell gold o…

Gareth and Jeremy discuss the UK budget, the prospect of rate cuts, and the new high in gold prices. There are more bids in the UK; this time, for Spirent and Virgin Money. We had results from STV & Beeks, and updates from housing-related companies Travis, Ibstock, Headlam, and Likewise, all looking for a pick-up in housing activity. Next week's ma…

Jeremy & Gareth discuss recovering UK housing activity, the UK's IPO prospects, the EV problem, Bitcoin ETFs, the knockout bid for Wincanton as another indicator of the value in the UK small cap market, improving evidence of equity fund raises, and updates from Taylor Wimpy and Howden Joinery. Looking into next week, setting Wednesday's Spring Budg…

Gareth & Jeremy discuss the path for interest rates, Nvidia and the AI bubble, the parallels to the dot-com bubble, and what might happen next. In the UK they discuss Springfield Properties, Currys, Dialight, and Gooch & Housego. Finally, Jeremy looks at the macro data that might impact markets this week. Brought to you by Progressive Equity Resear…

In their weekly chat, Jeremy & Gareth discuss the UK recession, the trends for inflation and interest rates and how stock markets are behaving and the outlook for the consumer. They ask whether the UK might go it alone and cut rates before a move from the Fed. They also discuss Bloomsbury Publishing and the demand for fantasy fiction, XP Power and …

Gareth and Jeremy are joined by Alastair Stewart, who talks about the Barratts Redrow acquisition, the outlook for the housebuilding sector, house price data and the emerging recovery in transaction volumes. Additionally, they cover the updates from Beeks Financial Cloud and Sanderson Design, and in next week's news, they highlight the release of s…

Rate Reductions on Hold but Outlook for UK Small Caps Remains Positive Jeremy and Gareth discussed issues in markets last week with the outlook for interest rates, inflation, the UK housing market, emerging banking strains based on commercial real estate lending with echoes of last year's US regional banking crisis, and the Mag Seven reporting seas…

Jeremy and Gareth talk about the week in markets, how the world economy is shaping up and, in particular, what the hell's happening in China, its economy and stock market. Also discussed are UK updates from Forterra, Idox, Wetherspoon, and Aquis Exchange. Brought to you by Progressive Equity Research.…

Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans are joined by Scott Evans of the London Business School and co-compiler of the Deutsche Numis Market Indices to discuss the performance of mid and small-cap last year, over the long term, and what might be driving equity market performance in 2024. In addition, they mention updates from Concurrent Technologies and Ga…

Jeremy McKeown & Gareth Evans discuss the macro drivers behind this week's equity markets and some company updates that caught their attention. Companies mentioned this week include UK housebuilders, M&S, Marks Electrical, Sosander and Xaar.By Progressive Equity Research

Macro & Overnight It’s a quiet day for macro news; investors are focusing on US inflation data later today for clues about the Fed rate decision, where the next FOMC meeting is on January 30th. The SEC finally approved Bitcoin ETFs in the US market, widening the scope for investors to access the alternative asset, for example, via 401K pension plan…

Macro & Overnight The Bitcoin price was more volatile than usual overnight as speculation waxed and waned regarding the SEC’s expected approval of about a dozen applications for ETFs. There remain strong indications that SEC approval will be granted today for ETFs from providers such as Blackrock and Fidelity, among others, despite erroneous report…

Macro & Overnight Oil prices dropped sharply yesterday as OPEC+ struggles to maintain production discipline, evidenced by Angola splitting away from the producer cartel last month. This week’s main macro focus remains on Thursday’s US inflation data. Expectations are for the year-on-year headline rate to be unchanged from last month’s 3.2%. Equity …

Macro & Overnight Last week saw a New Year market hangover following the pre-Christmas party mood. Bond yields are higher (up 30 bps in the case of US and UK 10-yr benchmarks), energy prices and the dollar are higher, and equities have sold off. Rising tensions in the Middle East and extended supply lines from Asia to Europe are the proximate cause…

Jeremy McKeown and Gareth Evans discuss the main market trends from last year and the outlook for 2024. They discuss the October pivot on rate expectations, the rise of the Magnificent Seven AI wonder stocks, the outlook for Chinese and UK equities, and will a recovery in China be inflationary or deflationary. Will Trump win the US election, and wh…

December 18, 2023 Powell’s promised punch bowl is good enough for now Macro & Overnight Following the party mood induced by Jay Powell last week, talking about lower rates in 2024, there has, over recent days, been a rearguard action from central bankers to try to remove the punch bowl. Ironically, ECB President Lagarde, who should think about lowe…

December 14, 2023 Fed to pivot, Santa rally back on & Music Magpie is reinvented Macro & Overnight The Federal Reserve kept Fed funds steady at their 22-year high for a third consecutive meeting but indicated 75 bps reductions in 2024 in its so-called “dot plot” projections. In essence, Jay Powell is saying the quiet part out loud. They have been a…

December 13, 2023 UK GDP weaker, UK rates to fall & another UK small-cap bid Macro & Overnight The UK economy contracted in October, although year-on-year measures remain in positive territory. Following weakening employment data, rate hikes must now be firmly off the table, and it is a matter of when, not if, rates head down next year, which is go…

Macro & Overnight UK’s unemployment rate for October was unchanged from the previous month. Annual average earnings growth over the three months to October fell, and job vacancies rose, indicating a softening labour market. Investor focus today will be on the US CPI inflation data a day ahead of the Fed’s FOMC rate-setting meeting. Although rates a…

December 11, 2023 Central banks look to reassert control in a busy week for macro data Macro & Overnight It is a big week for macroeconomic data. While the US soft landing narrative remains intact, the world economy is walking a fine line between deflationary recession and re-emergent inflation. How the world’s governments finance their growing deb…

December 8, 2023 Yen rises, 10 yr Gilt yield below 4% & luxury spirits lower Macro & Overnight The Japanese yen has strengthened on suggestions that the Bank of Japan is nearing the end of its negative interest rate policy. The advance has reversed the recent strength in Japanese stocks and bonds. Japanese rate normalisation has been talked about m…

December 7, 2023 Financial conditions ease, UK bids continue & Energean enters Morrocco Macro & Overnight Oil prices continued lower overnight, with Brent now 22% lower than its September high. This decline indicates slowing demand from a weak global economy, a lack of OPEC+ unity, and a boost to consumers in oil-consuming countries. The $ was up a…

December 6, 2023 PE strikes Ten Entertainment Macro & Overnight The US Jolt job openings data estimates there were about 600,000 fewer job vacancies in October than in the prior month and about 20% fewer than a year ago. The more widely followed non-farm payroll data is on Friday, where investors will look for an affirmative indicator of lower empl…

Motion capture powers Oxford Metrics Macro & Overnight There is little new today in macro; attention remains on US employment data culminating in the non-farm payrolls on Friday for clues on the inflation and recession trade-off in the world’s biggest economy. UK Company News There is a flurry of news from some interesting smaller technology compan…

Inflation train has left the station Macro & Overnight Investors ignored Powell’s Friday speech, indicating that the Fed remains prepared to raise rates. With falling bond yields and a weaker dollar, markets believe the inflation train has left the station, and the next train due is a recession. Regardless of their hawkish tones, investors no longe…

Metro Bank restructuring update Macro & Overnight US GDP growth in Q3 has been revised upwards to 5.2%, primarily interpreted as a further sign of a soft landing but not jeopardising the market expectation of lower rates in 2024. Bond yields and the US dollar both fell further. China’s PMI data indicates that its manufacturing sector is still contr…

Kelso goes fishing Macro & Overnight Indications of the Fed pivot strengthened overnight as the DXY dollar index weakened, Treasury yields fell, and gold pushed to its highest level since May, only a tad below its all-time high. Global bond markets, up 4.9% in November, are on course for their best month since December 2008, as measured by the Bloo…

Macro & Overnight US bond yields fell overnight as the Treasury market absorbed sizeable two and five-year bond auctions. The world’s largest capital market is proving resilient, and its price action supports the view that interest rates have peaked and the US economy is heading for a soft landing. By way of a reminder that inflationary pressures a…

Macro & Overnight Following the US holiday, there is a busy week of macroeconomic data to catch up on. We have the German GfK consumer confidence series tomorrow and Eurozone economic sentiment indicators on Wednesday. Also, on Wednesday, we get US Q3 GDP estimates. Thursday brings inflation data for the Eurozone and the US. Expectations are for a …