We’re in a recession – we just don’t know it yet

Accountants Daily Podcast Network

We are effectively in a recession already with near-zero GDP growth and many industries under pressure, says turnaround specialist Michael Fingland.

Mr Fingland, CEO of Vantage Performance, said its focus on helping to save troubled businesses meant it witnessed changes in the economy “roughly six months before the insolvency profession”.

“It’s feeling very eerily a bit like the onset of Covid and certain elements of the GFC,” Mr Fingland said on the latest Accountants Daily podcast. “There are certain industries that are really starting to come under significant pressure.

“GDP figures were 0.2 per cent growth – that looks and feels like a recession because that’s an average score. When you’re at such an anaemic growth level like that, it looks and feels like a recession in most industries.”

“Now June quarter I think will definitely be a negative and September most likely negative, so officially, we won’t be told that we’re in a recession until November.”

“But at 0.2 per cent GDP [growth], that’s effectively recessionary territory.”