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Ep7: The Usual Level of Chaos
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Public policy is becoming a much larger ingredient in the forecast – stimulus, low rates, increased child tax credits, monthly stipends, and more. Supply chain issues, consumer demand shifts, minimum wage discussions and more are competing for attention as well. In the Forecaster we explore all of it. We have checked the math three times and it is true – it has been a year since we started on this COVID fueled adventure. The checking the math part has become part of the ritual, every time we complete a forecast someone seems to introduce a new variable. This week the stimulus train will be pulling into many American’s bank accounts with the intention of launching a retail surge. Economists are mixed on how this will play out – will people spend it, save it or do some of both with plans for the warmer days ahead? There is no doubt about, this stimulus is going to create a long-lasting impact that is just starting to appear in the modeling.
Want to know how the stimulus money will impact retail sales?
Looking for Construction and Real Estate insights related to the future of working from home?
The Forecaster is looking beyond the index numbers and giving you a better understanding of what is behind the unemployment numbers and what we mean by Job Skill Mismatch.
The coming months will be full of revisions, stay tuned to the Puget Sound Economic Forecaster.
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