Has China Won? Part III -- Mahan, Island Chains and Carriers

After the ‘End of History’

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Mario and Tom

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Episode XVIII takes a detour from Mahbubani's "Has China Won?" and looks closely at the military side of the burgeoning strategic conflict between the American hegemon and its rival to the East.
Focusing on three texts by a group of naval experts, we discuss how Alfred T. Mahan has been central to China's grand strategy for the Pacific and how its military planners' view of the First Island chain, a simple but unfortunate geospatial reality, forms a critical aspect of their conception of China's place in the world. Finally, to Mahbubani's question, "Can the US make U-Turns?" we test the question against military expenditures on outdated platforms and weapons systems in the Pacific.
We head into our final discussion on "Has China Won?" by sharing some thoughts on how these military-strategic works have reframed our earlier, perhaps overly optimistic view of China's successes. On the next episode, we'll continue exploring that question through the lens of economics, centrally focused on Pettis and Klein's "Trade Wars are Class Wars."
Works under discussion:
Michael J. Green: By More Than Providence
T. Yoshihara and J. Holmes: Red Star Over the Pacific
Jerry Hendrix: At What Cost a Carrier?

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