S1E111: Myanmar’s crisis scuppers India’s Act East Policy

Asian Insider

With limited agency and influence over events in Myanmar, India’s Act East policy is in jeopardy on several levels, including the risk of being outmaneuvered and encircled by China in its near east. Aparna Pande and Avinash Paliwal, experts on India’s foreign policy and South Asian geopolitics, dissect regional power dynamics and New Delhi’s options in this episode of Asian Insider.

Synopsis: Every fourth Friday of the month, The Straits Times' global contributor Nirmal Ghosh shines a light on Asian perspectives of global and Asian issues with expert guests.

It may have been called a “forgotten” war - but the civil war in Myanmar triggered by the military’s February 2021 coup d’etat, has grave implications for India’s national security, and plans for connectivity to Southeast Asia.

Also, as it remains to be seen where the cards eventually fall, it has also heightened New Delhi’s concerns over potential encirclement by China.

India’s immediate concern is spillover of the conflict into its own volatile northeast, where the state of Manipur which borders Myanmar, has been witnessing ethnic violence. But more broadly the crisis also threatens India’s “Act East” policy, and raises concerns in New Delhi as China extends its influence in Myanmar and also in Bangladesh; though Bangladesh’s current Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is pro-India, the country’s army is supplied mostly with Chinese weapons, and there is latent resentment against India.

But India’s options are limited, experts Dr Aparna Pande and Dr Avinash Paliwal told Asian Insider.

Dr Paliwal lectures in diplomacy and public policy at the School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS) in London, has just published his book “India's Near East.” Dr. Aparna Pandey is a research fellow at the Hudson Institute in Washington, DC and has written books on Indian foreign policy.

Myanmar’s internal conflict is a long war which is unlikely to be solved through traditional conflict-resolution diplomacy, they told Asian Insider.

This leaves India forced to defensively mitigate risks and relegate connectivity projects - roads and port investments, for instance - to the back burner, in the hope that when the situation stabilises, they may resume.

Highlights (click/tap above):

2:19 The multi-sided civil wars has deep implications for India's national security

3:50 India's big investment in building connectivity through Myanmar

4:51 China's interests in Myanmar's civil and military domains concern India deeply

13:00 All of India's neighbours are its first layer of security

20:18 An asymmetric connectivity benefitting India but not for Bangladesh

21:49 Understanding India's regional geopolitics through domestic political lens

25:36 India's challenge is broadly with all of its neighbours

Produced by: Nirmal Ghosh ([e-mail]) and Fa’izah Sani

Edited by: Fa’izah Sani

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