The Inevitable Power Struggle That Is Bound To Kick Off In The Wake Of El Mayo's Arrest (7/29/24)

Beyond The Horizon

When a leader of a criminal group like the Sinaloa Cartel is arrested or killed, several dynamics contribute to ensuing violence:

1. Power Vacuum: The sudden absence of a central figure creates a leadership gap, prompting internal factions to vie for control. This competition often leads to violent confrontations as different groups within the cartel seek to establish dominance.
2. Factional Rivalries: Within large criminal organizations, various factions have their own leaders and loyalties. Leadership changes exacerbate these rivalries, with factions battling to position their leaders as the new heads of the organization. For instance, the rivalry between Los Chapitos (the sons of Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán) and the faction loyal to Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada is a prime example of such internal conflicts.
3. External Threats: Rival criminal organizations, such as the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), see leadership changes as opportunities to attack and weaken the Sinaloa Cartel. These external groups might intensify their efforts to seize territories or resources, leading to increased violence.
4. Assertion of Control: New leaders or emerging factions must assert their authority and control over the cartel’s operations and members. This often involves violent actions to demonstrate power, eliminate dissenters, and enforce loyalty within the ranks.
5. Territorial Disputes: Leadership changes can disrupt established agreements and boundaries, leading to disputes over territories. These disputes often result in violent clashes as different factions or rival groups attempt to control lucrative drug trafficking routes and areas.
6. Law Enforcement Pressure: Increased attention from law enforcement following a high-profile arrest can lead to more violent encounters. The remaining members may resort to violence to evade capture, protect their operations, or retaliate against perceived informants.

The arrest of Ismael "El Mayo" Zambada, for example, is expected to trigger such violence within the Sinaloa Cartel as factions compete to fill the leadership void, and rival groups like the CJNG attempt to capitalize on the instability​.
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source:
Mexican kingpin’s arrest likely to set off violent jockeying for power (nbcnews.com)