Dave Ramsey Wrong? | Huge VIX Options Bets | S&P 500 Seasonality | When Does Government Debt Become a Problem?

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore is back with Jay Pestrichelli this week where they analyze the recent viral video where Dave Ramsey suggests people can safely withdraw 8% forever in retirement. What doesn’t make sense, what is left out, and why the assumptions may be faulty. Then, they discuss the market seasonality and whether this November pop higher already delivered a year end rally? Later Jay and Derek discuss the huge purchase of VIX calls this week and what it did to the VVIX Index as well as an interesting VIX option trade for December. Finally, they touch on Argentina’s plan to dollarize the economy and when the US and other countries high debt to GDP can expect it to be a problem and what is so frustrating to traders making bearish bets against it.

Dave Ramsey viral video saying 8% withdrawal rate on accounts will work forever

How Dave Ramsey makes fun of people arguing for 3%-5% withdrawal rates

The claim of simply investing in mutual funds making 12% annually doesn’t add up

How ignoring the sequence of return risk doesn’t paint a true picture for retirees

Dave Ramsey seems to imply even retirees should be 100% invested in equities

How the sequence of returns only matters to returns when withdrawing or adding money

Simple average annual return vs CAGR compounded annual growth rate

Contrary to Dave Ramsey’s advice not everyone should paying off their mortgage early

What historical seasonality of the S&P 500 Index says about year end performance

One of the largest November month returns on record for S&P 500 Index since 1928

What does Novembers month to date returns mean for seasonality?

Sovereign government debt at historic highs measured as debt to GDP

Argentina new president Javier Milei’s plan to dollarize

Argentina’s history of debt defaults

Discussing the huge VIX call trade that moved the VVIX Index this week

Why people are buying VIX calls

The VIX Index closed at the lowest level since January of 2020

Interesting VIX call breakeven levels for December calls

Mentioned in this Episode:

Total compounded annualized growth rate S&P 500 index by decade https://zegafinancial.com/blog/where-did-the-2010s-rank-for-total-return-on-sandp-500-index

Probability of Recession? | Explaining How US Treasury Bond Auctions Work | S&P 500 Index Member Changes | Option Premium Intrinsic vs. Extrinsic https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/probability-of-recession-explaining-how-us-treasury/id1432836154?i=1000635380296

Stock Market Returns after First Rate Cut https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/stock-market-returns-after-first-rate-cut-yield-curve/id1432836154?i=1000634550774

Option Selling ETFs Boom | Probability of Future Fed Moves | Bad News is Good News on Employment https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/option-selling-etfs-boom-probability-of-future-fed/id1432836154?i=1000633983056

0DTE Options Analysis| Inflation Coming Back? | Strong US Dollar Impact https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0dte-options-analysis-inflation-coming-back-strong/id1432836154?i=1000628157831

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

Contact Derek [e-mail]

www.zegafinancial.com