2024 Predictions | Late Year Rally Bullish? | What if Investors Are Expecting Too Many Rate Cuts?

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, go through their 2024 predictions and review how right or wrong they were in 2023. Why predictions are so hard to make and why they are overrated. When markets go up over 10% in the final 2 months of the year historically what does that mean for returns the following year? How earnings growth and market returns are non-correlations. According to NAAIM Active Manager Equity exposure is now greater than 100% compared to the October lows where it was only around 30%. No surprise there as people are more bullish when markets are making highs. 2024 predictions covering interest rates, the fed, markets, earnings, gold, bitcoin, oil and more.

Reviewing the 2023 predictions and how wrong or right they were.

How investors and institutions tend to be more long stocks when markets are at highs

How investor psychology gets in the way of buying when they should be buying

Questioning that everyone sold stocks to go into money market funds.

How bank assets may have rolled into money markets due to low interest rates at banks

Comparing correlations between earnings growth in a year and the market returns

When markets are down greater than 22% in a year, what is the average return the next year?

What if investors are expecting too many Fed rate cuts?

S&P 500 Index price vs EPS during bear markets

When final two months of the year are up greater than 10% what are returns the following year?

NAAIM Active Manager Equity exposure now 103% vs under 30% during October lows

Mentioned in this Episode:

0 DTE Options to Blame for Selloff? | 2024 Targets for S&P 500 Index | Fed Dot Plots Always Wrong?https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0-dte-options-to-blame-for-selloff-2024-targets-for/id1432836154?i=1000639530301

Everyone Betting on Rate Cuts | Blackrock Buying 44% of Homes? | Record Call Option Volume & VVIX and VIX Out of Synch? https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/everyone-betting-on-rate-cuts-blackrock-buying-44-of/id1432836154?i=1000638850473

No, Wall Street investors haven’t bought 44% of homes this year https://finance.yahoo.com/news/no-wall-street-investors-haven-015642526.html

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

Contact Derek [e-mail]

www.zegafinancial.com