Explaining Telsa Implied Volatility | Bitcoin Selloff Post Spot ETF | What History Tells Us About Election Year Returns

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial, are it at once again where they analyze Tesla’s implied volatility right before earnings vs what happened. Did the option’s market misprice premiums? Also, in the episode they talk about Bitcoin’s drop as a sell the news buy the rumor example while Derek argues that Bitcoin’s volatility make it unusable as a currency to transact business. Later they dive into some data showing that when markets are up 20% the year before the election, election years historically have never been down and does that mean anything for 2024? Finally, they talk about China’s selloff relative to US markets and how everyone thought emerging markets would be the thing in 2023.

Bitcoin in a bear market drawing down greater than 20% from pre-ETF launch high

Bitcoin at least in the short term seems like people bought the rumor but are selling the news

Can Bitcoin be a currency if it drops 20% within a month?

What is an option’s implied volatility mean vs an option’s historical volatility

Looking at the price of the at the money straddle on Tesla right before earnings

How to figure out what the options market is pricing in for a 1 standard deviation move

Post Tesla earnings did the markets accurately price in how much Tesla moved after earnings?

2023 was up > 20% so what does that mean for election year based on some data?

Election year and the markets

China’s stock market gets a little rocky but no bearing on US markets?

Emerging markets were picked at the beginning of 2023 to close the gap on US markets

Emerging markets still underperforming the S&P 500 Index

Explaining how companies earnings in S&P 500 Index are aggregated together not weighted

Comparing Apple’s earnings in a quarter to Starbucks and why the big 7 matter most right now

Semiconductors weighting in the S&P 500 Index hits a high

Semiconductors as the picks and shovels, bluejeans play for AI?

Mentioned in this Episode:

What Option Volatility Means for Markets | Is the Market Too Dovish on Interest Rate Expectations? | Does the Fed Need an Economics Lesson?

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/what-option-volatility-means-for-markets-is-the/id1432836154?i=1000642385904

Hedging With Options Examples | Soft Landing? | US Congress Trading Returns | Is Good News or Bad News Good?

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/hedging-with-options-examples-soft-landing-us-congress/id1432836154?i=1000640844619

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Contact Derek [e-mail]

www.zegafinancial.com