Goldilocks Stock Market and What Could Derail It? | Interest Rates Aren’t Historically High | Cheap to Hedge the Downside Now with Options

Broken Pie Chart

Derek Moore and Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial discuss the idea that the stock market is in a Goldilocks period based on sustained higher margins and earnings growth. Then, they discuss how out of the headlines the Fed has already started easing by reducing their balance sheet runoff each month. Why reducing the Overnight Reverse Repo usage (RRP) isn’t restrictive but rather was a reaction to demand for short term treasuries by money markets. Later they talk about how interest rates are below long run averages despite what everyone tells you on CNBC and why high rates may not be a problem. Finally, they look at corporate earnings and profit margins for the S&P 500 Index and how they’ve growth over the years, gold prices vs oil prices as a predictive model, and yes some shipping container inflationary commentary.

Growth in S&P 500 earnings per share analyst projections

How net profit margins for the S&P 500 Index companies has growth over the years

Why this might be a hated bull market despite some goldilocks market aspects

What could derail this market?

Why profit margins continue to be higher and why they do or don’t have to revert to the mean

The Fed balance sheet explained

How the Fed is going to be reducing the amount of bonds running off the balance sheet.

How the Fed is restrictive and easing at the same time

Explaining what the Overnight Reverse Repo Market (RRP) is

Why the Fed reducing the balance of Overnight Reverse Repos isn’t restrictive policy

The order of how the Fed may ease (hint, it may not start with interest rates)

The 1990s bull run with higher interest rates and lower profit margins

Maersk container shipping operating hints at higher costs due to capacity, fuel, and congestion

What does higher container shipping costs mean for inflation and prices?

Do Gold prices project out what oil prices will do in the next 19 months?

Explaining the cost of hedging and how it is very cheap to put on downside hedges right now

The cost of a 1 year 10% out of the money put option

The cost of a 1 year ATM at-the-money put option

Using low or no cost collars to hedge the downside

Using long put spreads to hedge or buffer the downside

Mentioned in this Episode

Explaining High Dividend ETFs and Stocks and How Reinvesting Dividends Works to Build Share Count and Compound Returns

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/reinvesting-high-dividends-deep-dive-unemployment-the/id1432836154?i=1000654585450

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://amzn.to/3S8ADNT

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Contact Derek [e-mail]

www.zegafinancial.com