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Recession Predictions Still Wrong? | Synthetic Options | Unemployment Anomalies | Oil Prices Breakout

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Manage episode 376075894 series 2426951
Content provided by Derek Moore. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Derek Moore or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Derek Moore is joined once again by Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial where deep dive into the latest employment numbers. Plus, they ponder whether once everyone flips a recession finally comes? Later, they noticed some technical analysis on crude oil prices and a stealth rally. Then Jay and Derek talk through the idea of synthetic option positions including synthetic long stock and its attributes. Q2 earnings wrap up and how analysts over promised worse earnings and what’s ahead.

Unemployment BLS methodology deep dive

The unemployment rate rises in August to 3.8% due to anomalies in the report.

Yellow Trucking shutdown causes spike in transportation unemployment.

Hollywood writers and actors’ strikes cause unemployment rise.

Labor force participation rate has been highest since Feb of 2020

25 to 54 age bracket labor force participation rate rises to highest since May of 2002

What are synthetic option positions?

What is synthetic long stock using options?

Mixed bag of economic data

Everyone predicted wrong on recession.

US Crude Oil inventories are declining.

Q2 S&P 500 earnings wrap up.

Q3 earnings and beyond preview

How earnings predictions have declined over time

Are we passed the trough in earnings?

Why do people still hold money at large banks getting almost zero interest?

What is a cup and handle technical pattern?

Crude oil breaks out from cup with handle pattern.

Mentioned in this Episode:

0 DTE Options No Problem? | Jay Powell’s Wyoming Speech Points to More Interest Rate Hikes?

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0-dte-options-no-problem-jay-powells-wyoming-speech/id1432836154?i=1000625845803

EconPi website http://www.econpi.com/

Employment Numbers from the BLS https://www.bls.gov/ces/

Fed Funds CME probability tracker tool https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com

www.zegafinancial.com

  continue reading

290 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 376075894 series 2426951
Content provided by Derek Moore. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Derek Moore or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Derek Moore is joined once again by Jay Pestrichelli, CEO of ZEGA Financial where deep dive into the latest employment numbers. Plus, they ponder whether once everyone flips a recession finally comes? Later, they noticed some technical analysis on crude oil prices and a stealth rally. Then Jay and Derek talk through the idea of synthetic option positions including synthetic long stock and its attributes. Q2 earnings wrap up and how analysts over promised worse earnings and what’s ahead.

Unemployment BLS methodology deep dive

The unemployment rate rises in August to 3.8% due to anomalies in the report.

Yellow Trucking shutdown causes spike in transportation unemployment.

Hollywood writers and actors’ strikes cause unemployment rise.

Labor force participation rate has been highest since Feb of 2020

25 to 54 age bracket labor force participation rate rises to highest since May of 2002

What are synthetic option positions?

What is synthetic long stock using options?

Mixed bag of economic data

Everyone predicted wrong on recession.

US Crude Oil inventories are declining.

Q2 S&P 500 earnings wrap up.

Q3 earnings and beyond preview

How earnings predictions have declined over time

Are we passed the trough in earnings?

Why do people still hold money at large banks getting almost zero interest?

What is a cup and handle technical pattern?

Crude oil breaks out from cup with handle pattern.

Mentioned in this Episode:

0 DTE Options No Problem? | Jay Powell’s Wyoming Speech Points to More Interest Rate Hikes?

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/0-dte-options-no-problem-jay-powells-wyoming-speech/id1432836154?i=1000625845803

EconPi website http://www.econpi.com/

Employment Numbers from the BLS https://www.bls.gov/ces/

Fed Funds CME probability tracker tool https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

Jay Pestrichelli’s book Buy and Hedge https://amzn.to/3jQYgMt

Derek’s new book on public speaking Effortless Public Speaking https://amzn.to/3hL1Mag

Derek Moore’s book Broken Pie Chart https://www.amazon.com/Broken-Pie-Chart-Investment-Portfolio/dp/1787435547/ref=sr_1_1?keywords=broken+pie+chart&qid=1558722226&s=books&sr=1-1-catcorr

Contact Derek derek.moore@zegafinancial.com

www.zegafinancial.com

  continue reading

290 episodes

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