Marketing verses storing this harvest | Weekly Commodity Market Update

Brownfield Ag News

This week Will and Ben discuss the outlook for harvest time grain marketing decisions.

Market recap (changes on week as of Monday's close):

» September 2024 corn down $.16 at $3.62

» December 2024 corn down $.14 at $3.86

» September 2024 soybeans up $.03 at $9.59

» November 2024 soybeans up $.04 at $9.80

» September soybean oil up 1.23 cents at 41.70 cents/lb

» September soybean meal flat at $312.10/short ton

» September 2024 wheat down $.30 at $4.98

» July 2025 wheat down $.26 at $5.63

» October cotton up 2.60 cents at 70.58 cents/lb

» December cotton up 1.58 cents at 70.26 cents/lb

» September WTI Crude Oil up $2.77 at $77.14/barrel

Weekly highlights:

Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that “the time has come for policy to adjust”. The markets were pleased, and the Dow Jones has largely returned to near record levels.

US energy stocks were down across the board last week. US crude oil minus the strategic petroleum reserve, gasoline and distillate fuels were down 195, 67, and 139 million gallons respectively. Implied gasoline demand was up 2% week over week.

US ethanol production increased to 323 million gallons compared to 315 million gallons the week prior and 308 and 286 million gallons on average. Ethanol stocks increased just slightly by 9 million gallons.

Open interest in Chicago commodities was up for Chicago wheats (+0.1%) and soybean oil (+3.0%) while down for corn (-1.7%), soybeans (-2.6%), soybean meal (-1.3%), cotton (-1.3%), and rough rice (-2.7%).

Managed money futures and options positions saw further selling to increase net shorts in corn and soybeans by 8,889 and 8,311 net positions, respectively. They were net buyers of wheats by 17,808 to reduce the net short.

Cattle on Feed as of August 1 was reported at 11.095 million head- or 100.3% of last year. The estimate was slightly ahead of the 100.0% trade estimate. Placements of 105.8% were above the 103.2% trade estimate with marketings of 107.7% slightly below the 108.1% expectation.

US Grain and Oilseed export sales for 2023/24 corn, soybeans, and sorghum were bearish. Corn sales of 4.7 million bushels again this week matched a marketing year low. Soybean had negative net export sales of -1.6 million bushels. Export sales for 2024/25 were strong for corn and soybeans at and 50.8 and 61.6 million bushels. Cotton and rice sales were minimal at 0.1 million bales and 0.4 million cwt, respectively.

US grain and oilseed exports were up week over week for soybeans, grain sorghum, and wheats while down week over week for corn. Everything was within expectations.

The Canada Industrial Relations Board ordered an end to the Canadian railway strike Saturday bringing back CPKC workers after CN employees reached an agreement last week.

The Pro Farmer tour estimated US corn and soybean yields at 181.1 and 54.9 bushels/ acre, respectively. These compare to 172 and 49.7 bushels per acre in 2023.

US corn conditions dropped two good to excellent points on the week to 65%. The trade was expecting a 1 percentage point decline.

US soybean ratings at 67% good to excellent were down 1 point on the week as expected.

US cotton conditions decreased 2 points to 40% good to excellent compared to 33 this time last year.

The spring wheat crop decreased 4 points to 69% and 3% below expectations.

Topics:

» Market recap

» Storing versus marketing grain

» Operating below breakeven

» Reports to watch

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