Episode 5: Philip Newman, Metals Focus

Clarity

Welcome to the Diamond Standard podcast Clarity.

In Episode Five, hosts Managing Director Amelia Bourdeau and Director Neshiva Chan are joined by Philip Newman, Managing Director - Metals Focus.

Note: This episode was recorded June 15, 2023, the day after the Fed paused at the June FOMC, as referenced in our discussion. At that time, fed fund futures expected one more 25bp rate hike and was moving toward pricing out rate cuts for 2023. Currently, a 25bp rate hike is priced in for the July FOMC and approximately a 15% probability of an additional 25bp rate hike in for the September FOMC. Rate cuts have been priced out for 2023 and approximately 150bp of rate cuts are priced in for 2024. So, the expectations have shifted to be less hawkish ahead for 2024. Post the downside surprise for US June core CPI, which came in at 4.8% y/y this week, fed fund futures priced in more rate cuts for 2024.

We know you will enjoy this conversation - it is wide ranging, covering:

1:00 - Metals Focus background and proprietary data

3:33 - Gold report and IPMI conference

5:55 - Gold price volatility key for dealers

8:36 - Gold investment demand and institutional allocations

11:53 - Fed outlook and gold price

13:40 - Central bank demand for gold

15:25 - Institutional demand and impact on the gold price

17:08 - Global growth - China risk

19:08 - Challenges forecasting gold price this year

21:35 - Discussion: de-dollarization, why central banks are buying gold, Central Bank of Turkey selling gold

27:55 - Luxury demand for jewelry

31:04 - Gold demand and price forecast components for 2023

36:54 - Crypto world and impact on gold

Recorded June 15, 2023

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