Doug Sosnik on the State of the Race: Trump, Biden, and 2024

Conversations with Bill Kristol

Where does the 2024 presidential race stand? What are the strengths and weaknesses of the candidates, and how might such an unpopular rematch play out? What could happen if it's not Biden and Trump?
To discuss these questions, we are joined again by veteran political strategist Doug Sosnik, former political director in the Clinton White House and author of this week’s important New York Timesop-ed,“Biden Can’t Count on Trump’s Unpopularity Anymore.” According to Sosnik, a Biden campaign strategy of aiming to “disqualify" Trump in the minds of voters is insufficient: Biden also must make an affirmative case for a second term while overcoming doubts about his age and health. Because the polarization in the country remains so intense, another Biden v. Trump race would be a world of “high floors and low ceilings.” According to Sosnik, Trump—now slightly ahead in the polls—is "bumping up to the high end of his ceiling,” while “Biden is bumping up to the bottom of his floor.” Kristol and Sosnik also consider the possible effects of a third-party challenge in a polarized environment, and how the race might take shape if either Trump or Biden is not renominated.