CropGPT - Soybeans - Week 25

CropGPT - Podcast for Soft Commodities

Welcome to the weekly summary of the global Soybeans market for June 23rd 2024. For more information on any aspect of this report, please visit the CropGPT website for far more detailed reporting and analysis.

Ukraine has increased its soybean cultivation in government-controlled areas, reported by the Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food as of June 6, 2024. This increase is significant compared to the 2023 crop performance and is expected to influence global soybean market trends. Ukraine is an essential contributor to the global soybean market, providing significant protein and oil sources that impact global availability and pricing. The rise in soybean area promises to boost productivity and could lead to more affordable global prices, potentially affecting demand dynamics in international agricultural markets.

Brazil's soybean production remains relatively stable despite minor fluctuations, as per the latest update from the Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oils Industries (ABIOVE) up to April 2024. The projected soybean production is around 152.5 million tonnes, a slight decrease from previous surveys. Soybean processing is steady with 41.7 million tonnes of meal and 11 million tonnes of oil produced. Brazil expects to export robust quantities: 97.8 million tonnes of soybeans and significant amounts of meal and oil, projecting a substantial $54.1 billion revenue from these exports in 2024.

In Mato Grosso, soybean production costs have dropped, as reported by the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (IMEA). The decrease is significant and comes mainly from reduced macronutrient and pesticide prices. However, this reduction in costs hasn't translated into increased soybean trade, likely due to the cost of production still not aligning economically with soybean market prices, affecting the commercialization pace and potential future production capacities.

Simultaneously, Mato Grosso has hit a record in soybean crushing with 1.16 million tonnes processed in May 2024, marking a significant annual growth and nearly full capacity utilization in its facilities. The state also saw a noticeable rise in soybean meal exports, benefiting from increased global demand.

The EU predicts a record soybean production for the 2024-2025 marketing season due to expanded sowing areas. Despite a slight anticipated decline in yield, overall production is expected to reach about three million tonnes. Noteworthy increases are projected in Romania, Croatia, Hungary, and Austria due to increased cultivation areas. Italy and France show marginal production decreases. Overall, the expansion in cultivation areas is behind most of the anticipated supply growth, positioning the EU to maintain substantial revenue figures close to the previous year's levels.

Argentina's soybean harvest shows positive progression with 96% of the suitable area harvested, a yield expectation of 3010 kilogrammes per hectare, and an estimated production of 50.5 million tonnes. The harvest is advancing faster than the previous year, indicating efficient agricultural practices and promising production volumes that could impact local and global soybean markets.

Vietnam has seen a considerable increase in soybean imports from Cambodia amid strong domestic demand, positioning it as the third-largest global soybean importer. In total, from January to April 2024, Vietnam imported 762,867 tonnes valued at over $407.82 million. Brazil has recently overtaken the USA as the primary source of these imports. Despite variable figures from established suppliers, the rising imports from Cambodia mark a significant increase, reflecting broader shifts in global soybean supply chains and market dynamics.

Remember, our CropGPT site contains far more details and reports about the Soybeans market, including crop health reports, 20 years of weather data, and even pricing data and earning call analysis. This podcast is just a few selected highlights for the week.