CropGPT - Sugar - Week 24
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Global Overview 2023-24 Season Deficit:
ISO Projections: The International Sugar Organization (ISO) projects a global sugar deficit of 2.954 million tonnes, an increase from February’s 0.689 million tonnes. Production is revised down to 179.270 million tonnes, while consumption is expected to rise to 182.224 million tonnes.
Brazil
Processing and Ethanol Sales: The Southcentral region experienced a 3.36% drop in sugarcane processing in late May 2024 due to unfavorable climatic conditions affecting areas such as Paraná, Mato Grosso do Sul, and Assis in São Paulo. However, sales of hydrated ethanol in São Paulo reached a 42-month high, with 1.87 billion liters traded domestically in May.
Operations: Four new units commenced operations, bringing the total to 249 units, including 232 sugarcane processing units, nine corn ethanol producers, and eight flex mills.
Production: Sugar production decreased by 7.72% due to lower sugarcane quality, yet cumulative production until June 1, 2024, was 11.8% higher than the previous cycle. Ethanol production in late May 2024 reached 2.12 billion liters, with a significant increase in corn ethanol production by 50.38%.
India
Uttar Pradesh Payments: Delayed payments to sugarcane farmers in Uttar Pradesh by local mills could disrupt the market.
Cross-Border Supply Issues: Seizure of smuggled sugar in Bangladesh highlights supply challenges.
Government Initiatives: Emphasis on the food processing sector and potential increases in the minimum selling price (MSP) for sugar could influence market dynamics. Digital governance measures are being implemented to enhance data accuracy in the sugar sector.
MSP Increase: The government is considering raising the MSP for the 2024-25 season, aligning with increased fair and remunerative prices for sugarcane.
Ukraine
Production Progress: Despite weather challenges, the EU’s sugar beet yield is estimated at 75.4 tha, with France expecting 84.5 tha and Germany 75.5 tha. Pests like slugs and aphids pose risks.
Export Performance: Ukraine exported 421,800 tons of sugar in 2024, with 301,000 tons to the EU. A new export quota of 750,000 tons has been set for the marketing year.
Government Restrictions: Imposed a zero-quota on sugar exports to the EU as of May 30.
Mexico
Production Levels: Estimated sugar production for 2023-24 is 4.718 million metric tons, with a recovery rate of 10.2%. Low-polarity sugar constitutes 6% of total production.
US-Mexico Trade: Projected exports to the U.S. are 398,704 MT. High-tier tariff sugar imports are expected to offset lower production levels.
Kazakhstan
Proposed Ban: Kazakhstan plans to halt sugar exports by August 31, 2024, to meet domestic demand. Currently, only 13% of the domestic market's needs are met by local production.
Pakistan
- Surplus Concerns: Pakistan has delayed its decision on sugar exports despite having a surplus of about 1.5 million tonnes, focusing on ensuring domestic price stability before approving exports.
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