DHUnplugged #711: So Many Fails

DHUnplugged Podcast

DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident) Dangerous market - running on emotions Tesla Earnings are out... PLUS we are now on Spotify and Amazon Music/Podcasts! Click HERE for Show Notes and Links DHUnplugged is now streaming live - with listener chat. Click on link on the right sidebar. Love the Show? Then how about a Donation? Follow John C. Dvorak on Twitter Follow Andrew Horowitz on Twitter Chatroom still a work in progress it appears Warm Up - Politics Goes off the rails - Biden out (Failed) - Huge Failure of tech - Crowdstrike getting skewered (Down ~ 30% since incident) - Dangerous market - running on emotions Market Update - DJIA - FAILED - worst week in ages - massive losses as UNH fails to keep up (accounted for 500+ points of that big rally in July) - Market broadened out finally - then the mega-caps started to come in and market was crushed - - Tesla Earnings are out - other tech names too Need a new CTP Market Emotions - Now that we are in the throws of the election cycle - dangerous market - Running on emotion - and you can see that we levels (round like futures markets @ES - 5,600 and @NQ 20,000 levels as battle lines) - People will think that one or other candidate is good or bad and will invest accordingly (usually without facts) - Biden dropping out has interesting impact - Now we have one candidate that we really do not know actual policy and track record. Also unknown VP ... Crowdstrike Glitch - Anything on your end a problem? - Some minor trading issues with Schwab for a minute on Friday - Airlines - still seem to be having issues - Bigger issues when relying on single company? - Friday and over weekend MSFT said that they restored a majority of services - Hackers are already taking advantage of situation and Crowdstike out with warnings (some firms may get phished into beleiving that there is a fix and it is actually a hack) Delta Offers Apologies+ - CEO Ed Bastian offered Freq flyer miles to travelers that were stuck due to Crowdstrike "glitch" - 800 flights were cancelled Sunday (22% of flights) - The airline was offering flight attendants extra pay to pick up shifts - WHO IS GOING TO PAY FOR THIS? (Crowdstike and passengers) Tech - Wiz Walks - $23 billion - they say NO THANKS - Wiz - 4 year old start up that makes security tools to protect data centers - May valuation was $12 billion - Company wants to go the IPO route Election - Sooooo - thoughts on the Biden dropout? (Via letter and Social Media - is that weird?) - Trump Trade fade? - Vance tough on anything foreign? (USA First) - Anyone else aside from Harris? Bank Earnings - Looking back - not much to be upset about - so that is good - Rate expectations are for September (Dec more likely) - Yield curve has steepened (good for profit margin of banks) - Fed continues to be dovish - Trump expectations of reduced regulations? More Earnings - Google/Alphabet - Alphabet prelim Q2 $1.89 vs $1.84 FactSet Consensus; revs $84.74 bln vs $84.22 bln FactSet Consensus --- Margin 32% vs 29& a year ago (Stock initially up then tuend lower on lower advert revenue and other AI comments) - Tesla Earnings - Tesla prelim Q2 $0.52 vs $0.61 FactSet Consensus; revs $25.5 bln vs $24.38 bln FactSet Consensus -- Tesla prelim: GAAP gross margin of 18.0%, down 23 bps yr/yr ---- Tesla prelim: reiterates that in 2024, its vehicle growth rate may be notably lower than growth rate achieved in 2023 (Stock down 5%) - Visa: Reports Q3 (Jun) earnings of $2.42 per share, excluding non-recurring items, in-line with the FactSet Consensus of $2.42; revenues rose 9.6% year/year to $8.9 bln vs the $8.92 bln FactSet Consensus. (Stock down 10%) Warren - Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its gigantic Bank of America holding for the first time in four and a half years following the bank's strong 2024 run.