202 - Oil Sinks to Six-Month | Saudi Aramco profit soars | Dr. Dean Foreman from API

Energy Week

Oil Sinks to Six-Month Low on China Outlook, Iran Supply Boost
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-extends-losses-traders-weigh-225340219.html
China’s Economy Slows Unexpectedly as Covid and Property Woes Mount
https://www.barrons.com/articles/chinas-economy-slows-covid-property-51660559065
China's Covid and economic policy:
- were they using covid policy to try to exert a downward pressure on prices?
- No one was even considering covid as a thing at beginning of 2020.
- Prices were getting soft in January 2020 - but if you go back and look at what China was doing in terms of building hospitals, shutting down cities you will see it there.
- What benefit would it be for China to give up tool to shut down cities and control economy?
- Unemployment for Chinese youth 20%
- are they lying about the numbers? what purpose would it serve to make numbers less bad than they are, but still bad? or what purpose would it serve to say things are worse than they are?
- Is oil really falling because of Chinese economic data or is it because of other things and China is a convenient excuse?
Saudi Aramco profit soars on higher prices and refining margins
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-aramco-profit-soars-higher-prices-refining-margins-2022-08-14/
- Aramco putting profits into capex
Dr. Dean Foreman from API about MSR for July
- How do we explain falling gasoline prices?
Crude oil is about 60% of input costs for gasoline. So drop in gasoline prices is due to drop in crude oil prices
All commodities are slipping due to expected global economic weakness
Dichotomy in MSR:
- commercial stocks building but when take into account SPR releases it swaps everything that has happened with commercial reserves. Market is watching commercial inventories
- Note that July has been the highest domestic crude oil production for the month of July - what does this say about whether we might be heading back to record production rates?
- At the same time we've got highest petroleum export numbers (9.6 million bpd) since 1947 - what do we know about where this oil is coming from and going to? Highest import numbers as well? How do you think the SPR releases play into this?
- SPR releases aren't playing a bigger role. Admin taking a victory lap for bringing down prices but really its fears of global recession, commodity weakness, demand destruction.
- Dire global need for oil and natural gas. Numbers show US is playing really crucial role of provider of last resort.
- What isn't normal is that we are still releasing SPR when prices are in this environment. We aren't at $135/barrel crude oil. "Interesting that reserve releases have continued."
- Once the SPR releases clear up, should get clearer read on how supply and demand meshes.
- What about China? Looks like it is doing well in terms of industrial exports. But interest rate cut suggest China's economy needs triage.
- What happens if a hurricane hits in late August, Sept, Oct that disrupts production on Gulf coast? U.S. inventories aren't bad around US though east coast its low. Internationally theres a shortage of diesel, but a lot is being pulled from US. Heating oil inventories New England are REALLY low for this part of the year. and Diesel stocks are half of what they were. Price pressure for New England is on! Same issue for mid-Atlantic.
- Industry is doing hurricane drills, plans to seek waivers, etc. Planning for weather disruptions.
- How will Europe cope with a cold winter? Anecdotally, German households are stockpiling wood.
- Believes that China should "muddle through" and some goods from China may become less expensive.
- Despite more drilling, crude oil production actually decreased between June and July. Still 1 million bpd down from highest in 2019/2020
- NLGs - lots of associated gas produced in TX, get lots of light oil. If produce dry gas like in OH/PA don't get much light oil. Light oil is what we are exporting and is in high demand for foreign buyers.
- 1/3 well completions in US last year was a DUC. Latest data for July, is that its way down. Can't get completion crews. Can't grow.
- More than half of growth in oil production this year coming from private equity. They locked in services.
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