213 - Will the Russia price cap have any impact?

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Oil prices rose as much as 2% on hopes of China’s reopening and as OPEC+ maintains output cut targetshttps://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/05/oil-prices-rise-as-much-as-2percent-on-signs-of-china-covid-easing.html

- OPEC decided production quotas from Oct 5 continued through end of 2023, next meeting June 4, 2023

- Meetings of JMMC only 2 months

- OPEC might feel like oil market is more stable? Or that it will take at least 2 months for market to figure out how its going to work post-Russia oil sanctions

- Does Saudi Arabia have an idea of what's to come in China for next several months, Covid-wise? Perhaps they have a band of oil consumption that they are relying on with upper and lower limits.- https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/press_room/7060.htmChina set to ease COVID curbs further as markets cheer change of tackhttps://www.reuters.com/world/china/covid-confusion-china-authorities-row-back-curbs-2022-12-05/- The West isn't used to be able to protests in China. They are actually far more frequent than we realize. It's really more like a negotiation between local labor "union" and CCP. This happens a lot and the protests we see might not really be about Covid lockdowns and this could be a front.- according to some sources, "a new set of nationwide rules is due to be announced soon."

- how will this impact oil demand? OPEC doesn't seem think so, or its happy to just let Russia fill that demand?India to continue buying Russian oil, ministry source sayshttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-continue-buying-russian-oil-ministry-source-says-2022-12-02/- "There is a lot of opacity in term of what the rules of the game are... There are always options to buy Russian oil,"- India used to not buy ANY Russian oil. Now it is a huge customer. India loves the discounts.Ghana paying for oil in Gold because then its not impacted by exchange rateshttps://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/ghana-working-plan-buy-oil-with-gold-rather-than-usd-vp-2022-11-24/G7 price cap on Russian oil kicks in, Russia will only sell at market pricehttps://www.reuters.com/business/energy/g7-price-cap-russian-oil-kicks-russia-will-only-sell-market-price-2022-12-05/- sales to Europe going down, but that oil will go elsewhere

- Russian might not make as money but it will

Russia’s European Crude Sales Collapse Ahead of Sanctionshttps://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/russia-s-european-crude-sales-collapse-ahead-of-sanctions-1.1855011Venezuela and Chevron sign oil contract in Caracashttps://www.cnn.com/2022/12/02/americas/venezuela-chevron-oil-intl-latam/index.html- 6 month lease for Chevron to export Venezuelan oil to the US to recoup its profits

- this signing was just an official allowing of Chevron to come back to Venezuela - doesn't signify more investment

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