231 - Is global demand set to increase?

Energy Week

Goldman Sachs expects ‘all time high’ oil demand to spur large deficits, boosting prices

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/24/goldman-sachs-expects-all-time-high-oil-demand-will-boost-prices.html

- expect demand to rise by 2 million bpd from India and China

- Is this coming from OPEC via China?

- IEA says global demand will increase by 2.4 million bpd

- Will Saudi Arabia increase production as a result?

Oil markets are still volatile, U.S. energy chief says, calling for further supplies

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/22/-we-want-oil-prices-to-come-down-says-us-energy-secretary-general-.html

- Prices area actually surprising stable right now

- Granholm says Biden wants prices to come down because people "can't afford the premium."

Anticipation of Rate Cuts Could Lead Oil Prices Higher

https://etfdb.com/leveraged-inverse-channel/rate-cut-anticipation-could-lead-oil-prices-higher/

- If interest rates fall, companies will borrow more and expand causing demand to rise

- If interest rates fall, oil companies might be able to borrow money and expand drilling IF banks are willing to lend to them

- Can't depend on the Fed to start cutting interest rates while inflation is above 2%

Oil prices rise as tight supply counters expected rate hikes

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-rally-takes-breather-ahead-fed-ecb-rate-hikes-2023-07-24/

Russia Defies Sanctions by Selling Oil Above Price Cap

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia-defies-sanctions-by-selling-oil-above-price-cap-bae1c271

- Brent is at $82/barrel. Spread gets too large for people to ignore going to Russia.

- Does this mean that the system for selling and transporting Russia oil without touching western entities is well developed enough that the price cap can be totally evaded and it is meaningless? Or does it mean that the penalties for violating the price cap aren't being enforced or aren't strong enough?

- Sanctions enforcement isn't immediate - it can take 3+ years to get evidence and apply fines

- “The West has true pricing power,” he said, adding that the cap could be lowered to between $20 and $30 a barrel.

- But if price cap is set too low, Russia will call the bluff and price oil at what the market is pricing its oil at, and buyers can take it or leave it.

Global Hunt for Crude Sends Offshore Oil Stocks Soaring

https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-hunt-for-crude-sends-offshore-oil-stocks-soaring-8e4f77a9

- Exxon, Chevron stocks not doing well, but stocks of offshore exploration and service companies are booming. Noble, Transocean, etc. are booming with lots of offshore exploration.

- Can take awhile to find what you need, but good for future, 2026, 2027, 2028

Oil and Gas Companies to Face Stricter Regulations and Higher Royalty Rates for Drilling on Public Lands

https://www.energyportal.eu/news/new-rules-for-oil-and-gas-leasing-raise-rates-energy-companies-pay-to-drill-on-public-lands-8/84743/

- The increased royalty rate is expected to remain in place until August 2032, with an estimated cost increase of $1.8 billion for oil and gas companies during that period.- The proposed rule, which raises royalty rates to 16.67% from the previous rate of 12.5%

Link to Energy Infrastructure Webinar:

https://zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_oyqmDS1aRRaqoUG0-gfVag#/registration

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