Artwork

Content provided by ABC News and Galen Druke. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by ABC News and Galen Druke or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.
Player FM - Podcast App
Go offline with the Player FM app!

Are We Smarter Than The Betting Markets?

30:05
 
Share
 

Manage episode 417382958 series 2788977
Content provided by ABC News and Galen Druke. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by ABC News and Galen Druke or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Six months out, how does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election compare with how we are thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are election watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly produce a lot of emotion and narratives?

Unfortunately we don’t have a conventional wisdom thermometer in the office, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast we put that wisdom to the test with a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold.” We look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of everything from former President Donald Trump picking South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as his running mate to Democrats winning a Senate race in Ohio, and decide whether the odds are appropriately priced.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  continue reading

378 episodes

Artwork
iconShare
 
Manage episode 417382958 series 2788977
Content provided by ABC News and Galen Druke. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by ABC News and Galen Druke or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.

Six months out, how does the conventional wisdom about the 2024 election compare with how we are thinking about the numbers here at 538? Are election watchers thinking in a clear-eyed way about an election that will undoubtedly produce a lot of emotion and narratives?

Unfortunately we don’t have a conventional wisdom thermometer in the office, so in this installment of the 538 Politics podcast we put that wisdom to the test with a game of “Buy, Sell, Hold.” We look at where the betting markets place the likelihood of everything from former President Donald Trump picking South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem as his running mate to Democrats winning a Senate race in Ohio, and decide whether the odds are appropriately priced.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

  continue reading

378 episodes

All episodes

×
 
Loading …

Welcome to Player FM!

Player FM is scanning the web for high-quality podcasts for you to enjoy right now. It's the best podcast app and works on Android, iPhone, and the web. Signup to sync subscriptions across devices.

 

Quick Reference Guide