Does Powell Mean Business? | David Hay

Forward Guidance

Today Jack Farley speaks with David Hay, chief investment officer of Evergreen Gavekal and publisher of the Haymaker newsletter on Substack. Hay entered the investment business the same year as Paul Volcker became the Chair of the Federal Reserve, and he shares what the investment world looked like then, beaten down by inflation and obsessed on commodities such as gold and oil.

Hay describes how Volcker’s drastic actions turned him into a bond bull (“Volcker meant business”) for his entire career, but he shares why now he is not optimistic about bonds despite falling inflation and Fed Chair Powell’s spirited rate hikes. Farley asks Hay if Powell “means business,” and Hay shares his insights on corporate bonds, nuclear energy, and common investor mistakes. Hay also argues that unprofitable growth stocks could have another leg down as bond yields continue to rise.

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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

02:38 Is The Bond Bull Market Over?

09:32 A Fiscal Funding Crisis?

11:09 Modern Monetary Theory (MMT)

14:32 Are Rate Hikes Effective At Fighting Inflation?

17:44 Hay's Bearish View On Bonds

21:07 Oil, Gas, Uranium, and Copper

30:04 Permissionless

31:05 Investing in Corporate Bonds

34:17 Individual Stock Ideas

37:26 New Lows In Stock Market?

40:33 Outlook on Energy Stocks: "Easy Money Has Already Been Made"

49:15 About Evergreen Gavekal and The Haymaker Substack

51:44 Learning From The Volcker Era: What Was 1980 & 1981 Like?

55:33 Does Powell Mean Business?

58:10 Blockworks Research Plug

59:07 Dos & Don'ts of Investing

01:06:09 The Most Crowded Trade Right Now

01:09:05 Another Down Leg In High-Valuation Stocks?