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Manage episode 358562151 series 3340630
Content provided by Matthew van der Merwe, Pablo Stafforini, Matthew van der Merwe, and Pablo Stafforini. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Matthew van der Merwe, Pablo Stafforini, Matthew van der Merwe, and Pablo Stafforini or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.
Future Matters is a newsletter about longtermism and existential risk by Matthew van der Merwe and Pablo Stafforini. Each month we curate and summarize relevant research and news from the community, and feature a conversation with a prominent researcher. You can also subscribe on Substack, read on the EA Forum and follow on Twitter. Future Matters is also available in Spanish.
00:00 Welcome to Future Matters. 00:44 A message to our readers. 01:09 All things Bing. 05:27 Summaries. 14:20 News. 16:10 Opportunities. 17:19 Audio & video. 18:16 Newsletters. 18:50 Conversation with Tom Davidson. 19:13 The importance of understanding and forecasting AI takeoff dynamics. 21:55 Start and end points of AI takeoff. 24:25 Distinction between capabilities takeoff and impact takeoff. 25:47 The ‘compute-centric framework’ for AI forecasting. 27:12 How the compute centric assumption could be wrong. 29:26 The main lines of evidence informing estimates of the effective FLOP gap. 34:23 The main drivers of the shortened timelines in this analysis. 36:52 The idea that we'll be "swimming in runtime compute" by the time we’re training human-level AI systems. 37:28 Is the ratio between the compute required for model training vs. model inference relatively stable? 40:37 Improving estimates of AI takeoffs.
9 episodes
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Manage episode 358562151 series 3340630
Content provided by Matthew van der Merwe, Pablo Stafforini, Matthew van der Merwe, and Pablo Stafforini. All podcast content including episodes, graphics, and podcast descriptions are uploaded and provided directly by Matthew van der Merwe, Pablo Stafforini, Matthew van der Merwe, and Pablo Stafforini or their podcast platform partner. If you believe someone is using your copyrighted work without your permission, you can follow the process outlined here https://player.fm/legal.
Future Matters is a newsletter about longtermism and existential risk by Matthew van der Merwe and Pablo Stafforini. Each month we curate and summarize relevant research and news from the community, and feature a conversation with a prominent researcher. You can also subscribe on Substack, read on the EA Forum and follow on Twitter. Future Matters is also available in Spanish.
00:00 Welcome to Future Matters. 00:44 A message to our readers. 01:09 All things Bing. 05:27 Summaries. 14:20 News. 16:10 Opportunities. 17:19 Audio & video. 18:16 Newsletters. 18:50 Conversation with Tom Davidson. 19:13 The importance of understanding and forecasting AI takeoff dynamics. 21:55 Start and end points of AI takeoff. 24:25 Distinction between capabilities takeoff and impact takeoff. 25:47 The ‘compute-centric framework’ for AI forecasting. 27:12 How the compute centric assumption could be wrong. 29:26 The main lines of evidence informing estimates of the effective FLOP gap. 34:23 The main drivers of the shortened timelines in this analysis. 36:52 The idea that we'll be "swimming in runtime compute" by the time we’re training human-level AI systems. 37:28 Is the ratio between the compute required for model training vs. model inference relatively stable? 40:37 Improving estimates of AI takeoffs.
9 episodes
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Similar to Future Matters
Defining Diego is the story of one Guatemalan adoptee and his mother, a reporter who documented their journey from his earliest steps, as they try to understand how international adoption boomed and busted, and what it all means for families like theirs, with feet in two worlds. When Laurie Stern set out to adopt a baby from Guatemala in 1999, she thought the process would be pretty straightforward. Lots of people were doing it. But the adoption was held up just as she went to Guatemala to g ...
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It was the deadliest string of shark attacks the world has ever seen. In 2011, sharks in Réunion, a beautiful island, way out in the Indian Ocean started biting people way more than ever before and with lunatic violence. The epidemic forced local surfers, politicians, and business owners into a proxy war with ocean lovers and conservationists worldwide, where long simmering tensions boiled over. Réunion: Shark Attacks in Paradise is the story of what happened on this beautiful island, and t ...
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