Excellent Potential in Illinois, Problems in Northwest Iowa (Crop Tour)

Grain Markets and Other Stuff

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0:00 Crop Tour Update
3:30 Rail Strike
6:20 Argentina Acreage Decline
7:29 Ethanol Update
8:30 Flash Sales
9:23 Fed Minutes
🌽 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Highlights:
Illinois: Corn yield pegged at a record 204.2 bpa, up from last year's 193.7 bpa. USDA’s recent estimate is 225 bpa. Soybean pod counts were impressive at 1,419 per 3x3 plot, up 12% from last year. USDA projects a record soybean yield of 66 bpa, up from 63 bpa last year.
Western Iowa: Strong corn yield potential in west-central and southwest districts, but reduced in the northwest due to early-season rainfall. Soybean potential is similarly strong in the west-central and southwest but weaker in the northwest. USDA forecasts Iowa's corn yield at a record 209 bpa and soybean yield at 61 bpa.
🚂 Canadian Rail Shutdown:
Impact: A lockout of 9,300 workers by Canadian National Railway and Canadian Pacific Kansas City began last night due to stalled negotiations with the Teamsters union. The shutdown affects 75% of Canada’s exported goods to the US, including grains and fertilizers. Rail operations in the US and Mexico continue, but the shutdown may cause ripple effects.
🌾 Argentina Corn Acreage:
Forecast: Expected to decline by 17% for the 2024/2025 season due to concerns over leafhoppers and dry conditions. The Buenos Aires grains exchange has already reduced its estimate for the 2023/2024 corn crop by 10 mmt and anticipates fewer acres planted due to lower corn prices.
🚜 US Ethanol Production:
Update: Weekly production rose to 1.1 million barrels per day, up 2.4% from the previous week and 2.7% from last year. Ethanol stocks increased to 23.6 million barrels. Implied gasoline demand was up 1.6% from the previous week and 3.9% year-over-year. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand is up 1% compared to last year.
🌱 US Soybean Flash Sales:
Sales: US exporters sold 132,000 mt (5 million bushels) to China and 121,000 mt (4 million bushels) to unknown destinations for the 2024/2025 marketing year.
📉 Federal Reserve Update:
Interest Rates: The Federal Reserve is likely to cut rates in September. Recent minutes show confidence that inflation is trending towards 2%. A rate cut is anticipated due to concerns about a weakening labor market. Recent data also indicated a revision in nonfarm payrolls, expected to be reduced by 818,000, the largest revision since 2009.
Stay tuned for more updates as the Pro Farmer Crop Tour continues and market conditions evolve! 🌾📉🚂