Exodus Trend 2024

Hotspotting

The trend we call the Exodus to Affordable Lifestyle is among the most powerful forces impacting real estate markets across Australia.

It’s a trend that been around for at least the past 10 years, with more and more residents of the biggest cities relocating to smaller cities or regional areas in search of a different and more affordable lifestyle, empowered by technology which allows many people to work remotely.

It was NOT created by the Covid lockdowns. It was under way long before Covid appeared in 2020 and it continues to have considerable momentum now that we are well beyond the pandemic restrictions.

But media continues to perpetuate the fiction that this was a Covid thing – and to express surprise that, now that we no longer have lockdowns and border restrictions, people are not all moving back to the big cities.

The latest quarterly edition of the Regional Movers Index confirms that this trend is as strong as ever – and it has generated more shock/horror/amazement from journalists who think it was all about the Covid lockdowns.

One article in major media expressed surprise that “Australia is not going back to the pre-pandemic way of life”.

And there’s a very good reason for that: this trend has very little to do with the pandemic.

The Regional Movers Index – which is a collaboration between the Regional Australia Institute (RAI) and the Commonwealth Bank - has once again reported that there are far more people relocating to regional areas than making a move in the opposite direction to major cities, with a 27 per cent difference in the June 2024 Quarter.

What the latest figures confirm, according to RAI chief executive Liz Ritchie, is that “the population movement we’re seeing is a sustained trend”.

Ritchie says: “Regional Australia has become the nation’s new frontier.”

The latest data highlighted a number of specific hotspots that are reaping the benefits of Australia’s romance with the regions.

Lake Macquarie, which sits beside Newcastle in NSW, has emerged as one of Australia’s most popular destinations for movers, securing an almost 5 per cent share of net internal migration over the past year.

Neighbouring local government areas on the NSW south coast such as the Bega Valley and Eurobodalla both experienced strong annual and quarterly surges in movement, according to the report.

Large centres within a few hours’ drive of capitals remain popular with many movers, however the regions that experienced the biggest population changes over the past 12 months were generally further afield, including Townsville (Qld), Mid-West Regional (NSW), Strathbogie (Vic), Murray Bridge (SA), Greater Geraldton (WA) and George Town (Tas).

Approximately three-quarters of the city dwellers who made the move to the regions in the past three months found new homes in either regional NSW or Victoria, confirming that Sydney continues to shed the highest number of residents, followed by Melbourne.

But that’s not to say that Queensland’s appeal has waned entirely, with regional Queensland’s share of net city outflows sitting at 19 per cent, even though it was as high as 41 per cent this time last year.

Indeed, the Sunshine Coast has retained its title as the nation’s most popular destination for relocators, accounting for a 14 per cent share of net internal migration. The Gold Coast has slipped down in the rankings, however, with the city experiencing a net outflow of people to other regional areas.

Western Australia also proved attractive for relocators, with Albany, Bunbury, Busselton, Capel and Northam all seeing an inflow of new residents.

The overall picture is that the trend of people moving from Sydney and Melbourne to regional areas continues strongly, with large numbers of big city dwellers still seeking a different and more affordable lifestyle.