Another Reminder to Ignore the Forecasts

Lagniappe

While the debt doomers circle, we’ll examine why no one is good at forecasting and why widely acceptable notions of cross-asset correlations are wrong. We’ll also focus on the market's strengths and discuss the incredible power of America’s dollar, wages, and efficient energy output.

Key Takeaways

• [00:17] - Inflation Update + shelter’s outsized effect
• [06:33] - Disinflation + the debt-doom loop
• [09:40] - The power of the US: the Dollar, our wages, energy production
• [13:36] - The incredible efficiency of modern oil/energy markets
• [15:09] - What’s happened recently when the SP has broken a positive trend line
• [16:16] - The surprising market reaction to Iran’s missile attack

Links

• Bilello: The Start of a Correction (March CPI Data)
• Apartment List National Rent Report (April)
• Grannis: Moderate growth and disinflation still alive and well
• Weniger: A massive wage arbitrage has opened between the US and its competitors
• USA has switched from large importer of oil & gas to a significant exporter
• Carmel: We're not in a 1970s-style oil-inflation spiral
• Detrick: S&P 500 broke the trend line from late October. What’s next?
• Carmel: We are objectively terrible at forecasting rates
• Roche: Why savers are in hog heaven

Connect with our hosts

• Doug Stokes
• Greg Stokes
• Stokes Family Office

Subscribe and stay in touch

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• lagniappe.stokesfamilyoffice.com

Disclosure

The information in this podcast is educational and general in nature and does not take into consideration the listener's personal circumstances. Therefore, it is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized financial, legal, or tax advice. To determine which strategies or investments may be suitable for you, consult the appropriate, qualified professional prior to making a final decision.